Armies of Middle Earth SBG: Re-ranking Jay Clare's Top-10(ish) Evil Combat Heroes, Part II (the Big Three)

Photo Credit: alswns3421.deviantart.com

Last week, I took a stab at re-ranking Jay Clare's top-10 combat models for the forces of evil. We got as far as #4 before I had to call it quits, because blogger (quite literally) wouldn't post the rest of my thoughts on the top-3. So I'm back, as promised, to finish the set.

Before jumping into that, however, I have a little clean-up to do on the other rankings. After posting, Sharbie reminded me that Bolg also has access to Master of Battle if he's taken from Azog's legion and is your army leader (I'd plumb forgot, because our local scene always has Azog leading Azog's Legion--go figure). In Azog's case, having Master of Battle was good for another point in four categories (Troop Slayer, Hero Slayer, Mobility, and Impact). Bolg got max scores already in one of those categories (Troop Slayer), but since I'm trying to apply these already-subjective criteria as consistently as possible, I went ahead and gave Bolg a +1 point boost in the other three categories. 

On further reflection, I also thought that while I've never managed to get Bolg all ten of the kills he needs to unlock the Mighty Hero achievement, the possibility of Mighty Hero + Master of Battle on the same model was probably worth at least a +1 boost to his Empowerment score (I made it 1.5 to get to an even "6"), and also probably worth at least a slight bump to his cost score (given that he costs so much less than Azog does, and with Master of Battle + Mighty Hero, he may actually be be better than Azog). So here's Bolg's new platinum-level card, as well as his updated score breakdown:

Score Break-down:

• Hero kills (10): Base 8 (F7, 3 Attacks); +1 for Burly; +0.5 for The Bringer of Death (Mighty Hero if you get to 10+ kills); +1 for Master of Battle (potential free Strikes).
• Troop kills (10): Base 8 (F7, 3 Attacks); +1 for Burly; +1 for mount option; +0.5 for The Bringer of Death (Mighty Hero if you get to 10+ kills); +1 for Master of Battle (potential free Heroic Combats).
• Toughness (8.5): Base 6 (3.5 combined Wounds/Fate (3/1)); +1 for Defense 7; +0.5 for Master of Battle (potential free Heroic Defenses); +1 for Terror / Harbinger of Evil (1 and 5 kills with The Bringer of Death).
• Mobility (9): Base 6 (10" move); +1 for Fell Sight; +1 for 3 Will; +1 for Master of Battle (potential free Heroic Moves).
• Empowerment (6): Base 6 for The Bringer of Death (Mighty Hero if you get to 10+ kills).
• Impact (10): Fight 6 heroes don't like Bolg (he has a whole trick named after him that makes suckers of Fight 6 heroes). Striking monsters have to be careful around him, too--at Fight 7, he's got the base fight of most striking monsters (Dragons, Troll Chieftains, Bill/Bert) and at Strength 5 with Burly he wounds most of them (D7 or less) on 4s. He can't Rend them, so that works in their favor; but if they can't one-shot him, they're likely to lose some blood.
• Cost (6.5): Blog is very expensive, but he's way cheaper mounted than Azog is mounted, and if you do manage to tier The Bringer of Death all the way up (and pair that with Master of Battle from the Azog's legion army bonus), he's arguably as good or better than Azog, at a much lower points cost. You don't always have those two upgrades, but I did feel the potential of getting them was worth a slight cost boost.

Laid out like that, I think it's pretty clear I underrated Bolg last time around (but only if he's the leader of Azog's Legion--if you're running him just in Azog's Hunters--or if Azog is around and the Army Leader--I'm not sure I'm sold). What's less clear is where this version of Bolg slots in the final pecking order. On the one hand, I still have some reservations about putting a 3 Wound, 1 Fate orc on a 1 wound, Defense 4 Warg ahead of a big bruiser like Bill the Troll, although I fully admit that a full-power Bolg with Mighty Hero and Master of Battle is going to look pretty scary to Bill. On the other hand, his updated score (60) is substantially higher than Bill's (52), and is firmly in the same tier as Gulavhar (59) and Azog (59.5). 

Now, I know I said I'm not beholden to the scores (and that was my justification for putting Bill ahead of Bolg the first time), but at some point the score gap becomes so large that it's just not justifiable. I feel like I've reached that point with Bolg. So I'm going to bump him ahead of Bill (who falls to #7), and push Bolg into that next tier with Gulavhar and Azog. I suspect he may jump Gulavhar as well... but since we're going to rank all the evil slayers shortly on TMAT Talks, I'm going to mull it over for a couple weeks before committing to a final decision. Because there is a lot to mull over.

Anyways, with that cleaned up, it's time for the main event: my take on the last three models remaining: Sauron, the Balrog, and Smaug (to borrow Jay's order). 

There's a ton to talk about here, so strap in...

Methodology (Take 2)

In a take that will surprise no one, these three baddies are incredibly difficult to separate, both across categories and even in the same categories. Here's just one example:

• Hero slaying: Smaug has the worst Fight value of the bunch (F8, to Sauron's F9, and the Balrog's F10). But he's got the single-most dangerous move against heroes (an 18" fireball that could auto-kill heroes if they fail their Fate roll/don't have Fate, which he casts on a 2+ if he doesn't move, and can cast every turn if needed). The Balrog's probably got the best "hero-killing stats" on paper (F10, S9, 4 Attacks, and free Heroic Combats), but absolutely no Might. Sauron looks the slowest (no Fly, no free heroics), except that he casts 18-24" spells, and the spells that he has are exactly the ones heroes don't want to face (Transfix, Compel, Drain Courage, Chill Soul--and if you're wraiths, wights, or wizards, Sap Will). And how do we "rank" F10 with no Might vs. F8 with a 2+ to hit, insta-kill fireball vs. F9 with a 4+ Chill Soul, anyway?

The same goes for toughness (what would you rather have: 20 wounds/no fate, or 5 wounds/no fate except at the end when it becomes infinite 2+ fate?). And mobility (12" Fly or free Heroic Combats or 18" spells?). And Impact (all 10s, right? If a Balrog squares off with Sauron, neither is feeling great). And so on.

The result was that these three models are in their own tier to such a degree that my conventional framework couldn't capture the differences between them: as you'll see below, all three scored perfect 10s in four of the seven categories, including four of the five I weighted most heavily--killing heroes and troops, toughness, and impact. The fifth category I weighted most heavily (Mobility) was basically a toss-up, as was the "cost" category:

None of this is surprising, I think. They all kill heroes. And troops. And have tricks to move faster/reach their target. And seem appropriately costed (even if they're not cheap by any means). 

But it also meant that the scoring matrix was going to come down entirely to the category I'm the most suspicious of: that ever-nebulous "empowerment" score. I didn't think it was right to base my pick of top-slayer solely on how well they empower other models. Nor did I think it'd be right to cheat ("They're all top-3--yay!", and leave it at that).

So, in the end, I went ahead and removed the 10-point stat cap for all categories, so if a model was really good at a particular thing, it got full credit for that particular thing. While there's still some degree of subjectivity involved (over how much I weight stuff), I do think the ordering that emerged is supported by the profiles, consistent with how I ranked the other 70 evil profiles I looked at, and also makes the most sense (to me).

Whether you agree, of course, is another story entirely.

So here we go...

Number 3: The Balrog (Jay's #7)

Score Break-down: 

• Hero kills (12): Base 8 (F10, 4 Attacks); +1 for Fiery Lash; +2 for a Strength 9 Rend; +1 for Flame of Udun (chance to set a hero ablaze); +1 for being the only innate F10; -1 for no Might.
• Troop kills (11): Base 7 (F10, 4 Attacks); +1 for Rend; +1 for Fiery Lash; +2 for Demon of the Ancient World (free Heroic Combats).
• Toughness (12): Base 8 (10.0 combined Wounds/Fate); +2 for Defense 9; +1 for Demon of the Ancient World (can't be one-shotted by things like the Morgul Blade or Drain Soul); +1 for Terror.
• Mobility (11): Base 5 (6" move); +1 for Fiery Lash; +1 for Demon of the Ancient World (free heroic Combats); +1 for 3+ Will; +2 for Resistant to Magic; +1 for Fearless.
• Empowerment (8): Base 4 (Fearless to nearby Goblins); +1 for the 6" range; +2 for the Legendary Legion special rules (force can't be broken); +1 more to placate Tiberius, who would have complained about a score of 7. ;-)
• Impact (12): Sauron's not exactly dying to fight this guy, either. 
• Cost (6): Considering you're getting 18 slots for cheap warriors, a Terror-bypass, and one of the scariest models in the game who's incredibly hard to lock down, I think 350 seems fair.

Rationale:

Here's where (I'm guessing) Tiberius gets off the train. 

Let me get the obvious out the way first: I gave the Balrog an additional +1 for being the only model with innate F10, which you may disagree with (maybe F10 is that good, that it deserves an extra 2 bonus points that no one else can get). In the end, I thought an extra point no one else could get was fair. But even with that boost, plus his lash, plus a bonus +2 for that Strength 9 Rend and Strikes... he still ended up with the lowest hero killer score of the trio. 

Why? 

Because he HAS. NO. MIGHT. 

Now Tiberius has done an admirable job of arguing why the Balrog's profile is tailor-made to work around that limitation (he's not wrong, by the way). But at the end of the day, when we're trying to split hairs, it's still a limitation. It doesn't manifest itself against Striking heroes (most of the time), because you're already (and always) Fight 10 (unless a certain Ring is involved). It doesn't slow down your troop-killing (most of the time), because he gets free Heroic Combats. But if a lowly hobbit rolls a "6" and the Balrog rolls a "5," he can't do anything about it. Which means that while the Balrog may be the favorite when taking on big-heroes with Might (like Boromir, or Aragorn, or Azog), those fights are never a sure thing, even if the hero hasn't called a Heroic Strike. It doesn't matter a lot. But it does matter a little (-1 point). And that little bit of matter resulted in the lowest hero-slayer score of the bunch.

I didn't apply the same -1 penalty for no Might when it came to killing troops (mostly because I think you can get away with it most of the time, as long as the Balrog isn't surrounded by a ton of enemy dice). But there were a couple reasons where he lagged behind in this category, too. The biggest was his inability to kill more than 4 troops in a single combat (because he's capped at 4 attacks). Both Sauron (Unstoppable) and Smaug (his S9 Barge) aren't. So that's a thing. So are Chill Soul and dragon fire, which are other ways to kill a troop (or more, in Smaug's case) outside of combat. True, the Balrog can do that, too, with his fiery lash, but if you had to rank the power level of those three abilities (Chill Soul, Breathe Fire, and Fiery Lash), the Lash--as great as it is--would have to be third, right?

Toughness was also close, but 10 wounds is right in the middle of Sauron (5) and Smaug (20). For sure, the Balrog's got an advantage over Sauron, because he has twice the wounds (5 vs. 10). But the Balrog has no Fate, which means every wound he takes is a wound dealt. Sauron has no fate either, so for the first four wounds he takes, he's worse than the Balrog (depending, I suppose, on how you feel about D9 vs. D10). But then the Ring starts sustaining Sauron, and suddenly it takes more than 10 wounds to kill him. And if the wounds continue to pile up, Sauron lingers on (probably... hopefully), while the Balrog eventually succumbs. In a similar vein, the Balrog has half the wounds Smaug does (10 vs. 20). Now he's got a couple very valuable rules to keep him around (he can't be insta-gibbed by the King of the Dead, for example) that Smaug would absolutely love. But if you're not in those sorts of niche cases, you'd prefer to have 20 wounds with no Fate over 10 wounds with no Fate, right?

The most subjective category was Empowerment, and to be fair, the Balrog has some nice buffs here. Fearless goblins are really integral to making a Balrog list work, as is the bonus you get from the new Legendary Legion (otherwise just ignore the Balrog, and kill the goblins--just like you'd play against Sauron without his army bonus). But the Fearless effect itself is only 6" (and frankly doesn't matter all the time, especially if your Balrog never takes enough wounds for you to start taking courage tests for being broken), so I felt like 5 points for that, plus 2 points for the Legion bonus, plus one more point just in case you felt differently, was fair. [Edit: As Tiberius noted in the comments, the Balrog's Fearless bubble has a 12" range, so that's my bad... but I still stand by the second-half of my comment. ;-)] And that's enough to put him above Smaug (who, of course, empowers no one because he fights with no one), but it wasn't enough to edge out Sauron (who gets the same army bonus, but trades the Fearless that you can get through other stuff in Barad-Dur for what is clearly a top-3 spell suite in the game, with stupid-far range).

So, in a nutshell: the Balrog is great. Phenomenal. Clearly a top-3 combat model for evil, maybe in the entire game (depending on how you think the top of Good's list stacks up with the top of Evil's). But I didn't think he had the edge over both of the others in any category (let alone multiple categories), and that mattered to me.

Number 2: The Dark Lord Sauron (Jay's #1)

Score Break-down:

• Hero kills (13): Base 8 (F9, 4 Attacks); +3 for a 2+/18" Transfix, 3+/18" Compel, and a 4+/18" Chill Soul, along with The Lord of the Rings (1 free Will per turn); +1 for a Strength 8 Rend.
• Troop kills (11): Base 7 (F9, 4 Attacks); +1 for Rend; +1 for Chill Soul; +2 for Unstoppable.
• Toughness (13): Base 7 (5.0 combined Wounds/Fate (5/0); +3 for Defense 10; +3 for The One Ring. Look: he's 5 wounds at Defense 10, with an infinite, Might-able 2+ save to survive his final wound. I've killed one Sauron in all my days on earth, and I'll probably never kill another. He's a 10. At least.
• Mobility (9): Base 5 (Move 6"); +1 for 3+ Will; +2 for Resistant to Magic; +1 for Courage 7. 
• Empowerment (10): Ancient Evil, spell support, and a crazy army bonus. 
• Impact (11): He's the definition of Ancient Evil. Trust me--other Ancient Evil heroes are worried about him. On the other hand, his best magic trick for neutralizing enemy heroes (actual magic) aren't all that effective against either the Balrog (10 Will + Resistant to Magic) or Smaug (6* Will, Resistant to Magic), so he's probably slightly more worried than they would be. And I think that matters.
• Cost (6): Well, he's definitely not undercosted...  

Rationale:

And now we've lost Centaur (and with him, my "Team Sauron" badge from our TMAT Talks monster episode).

Sauron was both "close" and "not close" to Smaug in several ways. There are definitely some things he does better: as good a caster as Smaug is (and I'm on-record that Smaug is a top-5 caster for evil), Sauron is clearly his superior. He's got the better spell suite (picking up Drain Courage and Chill Soul) and better cast-values on their shared spells (Transfix, Compel, Instill Fear, Sap Will). Unlike Smaug, Sauron won't be popped by a pair of lucky siege weapon shots so long as you have Might in reserve (because Ring saves FTW!). And while Smaug has to worry at least a little about bow fire (thanks to Missing Scale), Sauron's D10 makes him completely immune to anything S2 or below (which is most bow fire), and nigh-immune to anything other than siege weapons (against which he has Ring saves--again, FTW!). Plus, Sauron's by definition better at empowering his army than Smaug is at empowering his (because one has an army, and the other does not). All the scores reflect that, and the Empowerment scores in particular aren't close.

But here's the rub: the aim of this particular list is to identify the best combat heroes in the game, and when it comes to combat, Sauron just isn't Smaug's equal.

Here's the list of things Sauron does better than Smaug when it comes to winning fights and killing stuff:

• He's Fight 9. Smaug is Fight 8.

       

That's it. That's the list.

Now here's what Smaug does as-well-as-or-better than Sauron when it comes to winning fights and killing stuff:

• Close Combat:
• Sauron has 4 Attacks (great) at S8 (great), with no knock-down (meh). Smaug has 4 Attacks (same) at S9 (better), and knocks virtually everything down if he charges into combat--including both the Balrog and Sauron (at least 100% better). 
• If Sauron is surrounded and wins the fight, he can give up his strikes to do one S8 hit (great) to every model in the fight, including supports (amazing), but if he loses the fight he may be trapped (not amazing). If Smaug is surrounded and loses the Fight, he cannot be trapped (better), and if he wins, he could do one S9 hit (better) to every model he Barges. It may not include supports (if they don't have to move to make way), but it also means Smaug can go on to charge one model that survived the Barge (or two or more of them, depending on how they're positioned) for a follow-up attack with regular Strikes (definitely better). Oh... and Smaug's player gets to move the models who are barged, so you can set-up that counter-charge how you like it.
• Sauron doesn't like fighting dwarves, because S8 vs. D7 means 4s to wound them in multiples (unless you Rend, in which case you can only wound one of them). Smaug wounds most dwarves on 3s (D7), including with that Barge, and also rerolls 1s to wound (whereas Sauron doesn't get any rerolls to-wound). Hey, it's absolutely niche... but it's something.
• Killing at range: 
• Sauron's 18" Chill Soul costs 1 Will, is cast on a 4+, has to/gets to choose mount or rider on a cavalry model (which, according to page 2 of the latest FAQ, is actually a bit of a boon now), it can be resisted (less of a boon), inflicts a maximum of one wound (fine), and doesn't auto-kill anything with more than 1 wound remaining (also fine).
• Smaug's 18" fire (same) costs 1 Will (same), is cast on a 2+/3+ (both better), targets both the mount and the rider on cavalry models (better), can't be resisted (way better), sets the target ablaze if it hits (better), can inflict wounds on multiple models (better), and any wound taken from at least the S10 is an auto-kill for anything but the Balrog (better). Now I grant you that the auto-wound from Chill Soul is probably better in the short term than the S10 hit from the fire (because a 3+ to wound is still a 33% chance to fail). But against multi-wound heroes (or even better, multiple multi-wound heroes if you can compel them into the same fireball blast radius), the persistent S5 fire damage in each ensuing End Phase is better in the long-term than just doing a single wound, especially if the hero is mounted (because a S5 fire DOT on mounts is awesome), and double-especially if there are no water features on your board.
• Killing Heroes: 
• Not to beat a broken record, but Fire! Knock-down! Barging horses! Can't be trapped, so you reduce the chance of taking cheap chip damage! But let's be honest... it's mostly the fire thing.

Again--Sauron's awesome. May be the best model in the game when you look at the entire package he brings. But when it comes to killing other models... look, he's still excellent. But Smaug is excellent-er.

So let's make it official, shall we?

Number One: Smaug (Jay's Honorable Mention)

Score Break-down: 

• Hero kills (14): Base 8 (F8, 4 Attacks); +2 for a Strength 9 Rend; +1 for a 3+/12" Transfix and 4+/12" Compel; +1 for a 2+/18"/S10 fireball that auto-kills if not saved by Fate; +1 for Unstoppable Momentum; +1 for S9 Barge.
• Troop kills (12.5): Base 7 (F8, 4 Attacks); +2 for a 2+/18"/S10 fireball that auto-kills if not saved by Fate; +1 for Unstoppable Momentum; +2 for a S9 Barge; +0.5 for Desolator of the North (rerolls 1s to wound against Dwarves).
• Toughness (13): Base 9 (20.0 combined Wounds/Fate (20/0)); +2 for Defense 9; +1 for Terror; +2 for Unstoppable Momentum; -1 for no Fate / insta-kill protection.
• Mobility (12): Base 7 (12" Fly); +1 for 3+ Will; +1 for Resistant to Magic; +1 for Fearless; +2 for S9 Barge.
• Empowerment (4): So I thought about giving him points because with spells, maybe he's empowering himself? But that seemed contrary to the spirit of the exercise, so I just gave him the +1 I gave everyone who had Ancient Evil/Harbinger, and called it quits (as it turned out, he didn't need the points here).
• Impact (13): The Balrog and Sauron both have better Fight values... but 20 wounds is a lot to chew through, man. And if he charges them and wins the duel, they're being knocked prone...
• Cost (6): He costs what he should, doesn't he?

Rationale:

Surprise! (Just kidding.)

No need to rehash the "why" here (I think we pretty much addressed that above). But I've argued about Smaug enough on other podcasts to have a sense of what's coming. So let me take this opportunity to offer some responses to the three rejoinders I know are coming.

(Editor's note: strap in... this is going to take a while.)

Rejoinder #1: Smaug is vulnerable to certain kinds of damage (specifically, insta-kill rules like Drain Soul, and siege weapons thanks to Missing Scale)

These are absolutely real concerns, and if you want to dock Smaug for the fact that those counters to him exist, and that they could hypothetically kill him on turn one, you can totally do that (once upon a time, I totally did that, too--more on that in a minute).

But if you are going to dock Smaug for that reason, here's three things you should consider first (because I've somehow become a Smaug apologist). 

First, I think it's only fair to acknowledge that the same counters also apply to both the Balrog and Sauron, who don't exactly like Siege Weapons or insta-gib models, either. Let's start with siege weapons. Both the Balrog and Sauron take half-wounds from them, exactly like Smaug does (because Sauron is D10, and the Balrog and Smaug have 10+ wounds). So none of them are "better" at withstanding a siege weapon than Smaug. Plus, while Sauron definitely isn't a siege target (and the Balrog probably isn't either), Smaug very well might be, in which case he's only taking a single wound from a siege weapon unless it rolls a natural 6 to hit. Being a potential siege target is way better protection against siege weapons than anything the other two models have. In other words, I don't think there's any real separation here (and if there is, it favors Smaug... how's that for controversial?).

As for Drain Soul/morgul blades, it's true that the Balrog can't be one-shotted (he has a special rule), but that rule still says he takes half-damage, so two wounds boosted by those rules will kill him outright. Sauron, on the other hand, loses all his wounds (because he has no Fate), which then triggers a Ring save (which, if he passes, leaves him with 1 Wound remaining). That's better than being killed outright, for sure, but it still does nasty things (like deprive him of Barad Dur's army bonus), and means Sauron's now a flub or two away from final defeat. Again, half-wounds/all-but-one wounds are better than "auto-kill," so there is some separation between these three models when it comes to their vulnerability to these rules. But I don't think that separation is as big as we sometimes make it out to be (and certainly isn't as big as I thought it was waaaaay back when I (wrongly) said Smaug was the distant third-best monster in the game--he may be third, but he's not distant).

I am fire! I am death! 

I am the destroyer of Worlds!

I! AM! SPARTAAAAA!!!

Photo Credit: USA Today

(By the way, there's other shared counters, too. For example, Smaug, like any other slayer, can be neutralized by spells, even though it's a tall order (Resistant to Magic, 6 Will store, plus 1 free Will per turn). But he's no more vulnerable to magic than Sauron (who has exactly the same tools--minus Resistant to Magic), and the Balrog may be the weakest of the bunch depending on how you feel about rolling natural 6s to resist spells (because no Might). In any event, Smaug's certainly more capable than the Balrog of fixing a botched resist roll (which, as we discovered in our TMAT Challenge series, can be crippling for the Balrog). Again, there is some separation between these three models, so you can dock Smaug for that possible counter if you want. But the degree of separation isn't huge.)

Second, while Smaug may be more vulnerable to things like siege weapons and auto-kill rules, I do think he has more tools to deal with those problems before they become problems than the other two models do, because he can breathe fire, Fly, and (if necessary), Compel, all in the same turn and over multiple turns.

Let's tackle the siege weapons first, because this is pretty self-explanatory. If the Balrog wants to stop a siege weapon, he has exactly three options: (1) take the Legendary Legion (so he can only be hit by ranged attacks on a 5+), (2) walk 6" a turn/march 9" a turn across the board, and (3) attack either the siege engine or its crew in close-combat (or, alternatively, lash enough of the crew away from the siege engine so it can no longer fire). Sauron has the 6"-9" move/march/close-combat option as well, plus an 18" Chill Soul, cast on a 4+ (no resist by normal crew, could be resisted by the Siege Veteran). That's more options, and one of them can be employed earlier in most games (because 18" > 6"/8"/9"). Smaug's alternative is to breathe fire (which, for all the reasons we've already beaten into the ground, is superior to what the Balrog and Sauron offer... plus siege weapons have no fate, and siege crew by definition have to be within 2" of a siege weapon to operate it, so...).

Drain Soul is on exactly two models: the Necromancer and the King of the Dead. What do they have in common? They move 6", which means to "stick you," they have to catch you. Smaug is the easiest of the models to "stick" (lowest Fight, no way to prevent insta-kills), but he's the hardest to catch (because a 12" Fly, and if needed, a S9 Barge, is harder to lock-down than a model that moves 6" on the ground). Smaug's also got an 18" fireball that he can throw at either model on the way in (whilst backing up 6" and blasting each turn, if he wishes). Now the Necromancer is a special case, because he's got 25 Will points to spend as Fate. But if he's casting a spell each turn, and having to Fate save a fireball every turn, and has to save a Set Ablaze hit in a couple end phases, he's going to burn through his Will--the question will be does he burn through it slow enough that he can catch Smaug, and then spend a couple turns in combat with him (triggering The Will of Evil, by the way) so he can hunt the win. And if he gets charged by Smaug, and loses the fight, and gets knocked-down, does he still have enough Will to survive the 8 to-wound dice that are coming his way? The King of the Dead is less special: he's got three Fate points, so he can survive exactly three fireballs before he potentially combusts. If Aragorn's in tow calling free Heroic Marches (or you're playing Contest of Champions), maybe you catch Smaug before you suffer that third fireball. But maybe you don't.

The Balrog and Sauron also have tools to deal with those threats, but they're not nearly as potent (or flexible). The Balrog's solution is mostly to play avoidance (because this is one situation where the whip won't help him). Move into something that's away from the King of the Dead/Necromancer, Heroic Combat further away from them, put a sea of cheap goblins in between, and hope that's enough. Now sometimes it will be, and even when it's not, the Balrog has a decent chance of still beating the Necromancer or King in a fight (he is F10, after all, the King is just F5, and the Necromancer can't Heroic Strike). But again... he has no Might. So any duel is going to hinge on him getting that "6", and if he can't, he can't do anything about it. Sauron's solution is basically Chill Souls, which might work against the King of the Dead (6 Will isn't impossible to chew through, but it's tough, and that's assuming no nearby Herald of the Dead is giving the King Resistant to Magic), but it's completely futile against the Necromancer (who, with 25 Will and a free die to cast, may be able to out-Chill Soul Sauron's 6* Will, since Sauron lacks Resistant to Magic... now I'm curious). The back-up plan is probably a 3+ Compel... but again, it can be resisted (and against the Necromancer, probably will be). Fire can't be resisted. And that's a thing.

The Morgul Blades present similar problems, because they're on models with lots of Will: a 10 Will Witch-King, at the worst (who, let's face it, won't have just 10 Will if he's also got a Morgul Blade... except perhaps in the new Black Riders legendary legion, in which case you'll have other problems to contend with), and 12 Will Castellans of Dol Guldur. Now both models are likely to have more trouble actually getting the Wound off (S4 vs. D9-10 isn't S6 vs. D9-10, or even S4 vs. Courage), especially since the Castellans need natural 6s to get the wounds off (or natural 6s by natural 4s, in Sauron's case--because Castellans have no Might). But they're also going to be extremely difficult to lock-down with magic (in Sauron's case), and while the Balrog probably likes his odds against the Witch-King (provided he's not Transfixed ahead of time), it's basically impossible for him to kill a full-stat Castellan "quickly" in combat, when he can only do four wounds max and has no Might to boost. Which leaves Smaug and his fire... which, granted, has to chew through a lot of Will, too. But of the three tools available, it's tied for the furthest range (18"), it's the only one that can't be resisted, it's the only one that can affect multiple targets if the opportunity presents itself, and he's the only one who can reposition 12" away if things go south. In other words, if you want the best chance of kiting a Morgul Blade, you want Smaug every time. Plus fire insta-kills Fell Beasts (because no Fate), so... there's that.

Only 2", eh?

Photo Credit: The Arkansas Democrat Gazette

Third, even with everything we've said about siege weapons, and insta-kill rules, and how those counters threaten any model no matter how tough, and how Smaug has some tools to deal with those threats, here's the dirty secret (and the most important thing) you need to know about those very real threats: 

Very few armies have them.

No, seriously: it's not a long list.

Drain Soul/Morgul Blades: 

• Dol Guldur (The Necromancer, Castellans)
• Barad-Dur (the Witch-King)
• Angmar (the Witch-King)
• Mordor (the Witch-King)
• The Dead of Dunharrow/RotK Legendary Legion (The King of the Dead)

Siege Weapons: 

• Minas Tirith (the bolt-thrower doesn't auto-kill, the trebuchet does)
• Khazad-Dum (Dwarf Ballista)
• Barad-Dur (Mordor Siege Bow, Mordor Catapult)
• Mordor (Mordor Siege Bow, Mordor Catapult)
• Isengard (Siege Ballista)
• The Iron Hills (Iron Hills Ballista)
• Garrison of Dale (Girion with Windlance)
• Army of Lake-Town (Bard with Windlance)
• Survivors of Lake-Town (Bard with Windlance)
• Azog's Legion (Gundabad Catapult Troll)

All-told, that's 13 factions (out of 43 total in the game, or 30%) who have even the chance to take one of these auto-kill weapons. 

Now that may seem like a lot, but consider this: not featured on the list are a number of very popular factions, especially in competitive play (Rohan, Last Alliance/Rivendell, Fiefdoms, Halls of Thranduil, The Serpent Horde/Far Harad, Corsairs, Goblin-Town, Azog's Hunters, Khand, and Moria). Additionally, I believe the only LLs that include siege weapons are Assault on Helm's Deep (Isengard-variant) and the Army of Gothmog (Mordor-variant), while the only one that can take a Morgul Blade is the new Black Riders Legion (on a 1 Attack Witch-King, in a legion that really likes its no-Fate horses). Other popular LL's, like the Riders of Theoden, the Rangers of Ithilien, or the Grand Army of the South? No options for insta-kills. So for insta-kills to even be a thing you have to worry about, you need to run up with an opponent who hasn't chosen any of these alternative armies; if they have, you're good.

Next, while a draw against some of these 13 forces will definitely field an auto-kill threat (you rarely see Dol Guldur without the Necromancer, and you won't see the Dead of Dunharrow/RotK without the King of the Dead), for most of these armies their auto-kill threat isn't an auto-take:

• You might see Barad-Dur with Sauron and a Witch-King, or Sauron and a Catapult, but you almost never see Barad-Dur with all three, right (unless you're playing at 1500 points)? As for Angmar, I'm on-record as saying it needs the Witch-King to be fully-optimized, so I'll leave that one on the list (even though I don't think the Morgul Blade is an auto-take on the Witch-King all the time). But the Witch-King's certainly not an auto-take in Mordor, which has a ton of awesome stuff.
• Like Mordor, Minas Tirith is a very diverse list, so there are ton of ways to run it. Siege weapon-heavy builds are out there (although there's an opportunity cost to packing too many in, as each has to be accompanied by a Hero of Fortitude or above), but you don't tend to see them nearly as often as, say, Boromir with Banner and Fountain Court Guard, or King Aragorn with tin cans, or that new Rangers Legendary Legion. And when you do see siege weapons in Minas Tirith, they could just be bolt-throwers (which, while they could score natural 6s to hit, don't auto-kill, have just 24" range, and can't shoot into combat (or through combats)).
• Azog's legion is hyper elite (Azog, Bolg, Berserkers, Trolls, Troll Brutes, Ogres, War Bats) before you even get to the Catapult Troll (for which there's no official model). If you ever hit this thing in a game, scratch it off your hobby bingo, because it may never happen again.
• Out of respect for Centaur and Minuteman Kirk, I'll leave Isengard and Khazad-Dum on the list, even though (1) apart from their siege legendary legion (and Centaur's vanilla Isengard lists, of course), I think ballistae in Isengard are the exception rather than the rule, and (2) Minuteman Kirk is the only person I know who unequivocally endorses the dwarf ballistae (although if there are more of you out there, who always take at least one in your Khazad-Dum lists, give him a shout out in the comments!). But against most opponents who are running vanilla Isengard/Khazad-Dum, I think your odds of seeing an insta-kill model are low.
• The same goes for Dale/Lake-Town. I'll leave them on, because the Windlance does show up, but for most armies (and in Lake-Town's case in particular), I think you see the hero without the siege weapon most of the time (i.e., you have better odds of facing Bard with horse and kids than Bard with Windlance).
• Lastly, I'll leave my beloved Iron Hills Ballista on here, even though I think it's fair to say that the points bump to 125 took it out of the "auto-take" category for a fair number of players (to the chagrin of absolutely no one who plays regularly against Iron Hills).

That leaves only 9 armies (out of 43, or 21%) where an auto-kill model is probably in play, and only 4 (out of 43, or 9%) where it's close to an auto-take:

• Dead of Dunharrow/RotK LL (certain)
• Dol Guldur (all but certain)
• Angmar (Witch-King probable, Morgul Blade maybe)
• Iron Hills (Ballista, maybe-to-probably)
• Khazad-Dum (Ballista, maybe)
• Isengard (Ballista, maybe)
• Dale (Windlance, maybe)
• Army of Lake-Town (Windlance, maybe but probably not)
• Survivors of Lake-Town (Windlance, maybe but probably not)

Now of course this doesn't mean you'll never face one of these armies if you bring Smaug (there's always that someone at a tournament, or in a friendly game, who decided to bring that thing, at which point all bets are off). But if you're assessing Smaug in the abstract (as I am doing here), and you're thinking about this one particular weakness (which he has), and you're trying to figure out whether that weakness is enough of a weakness to outweigh the fact that he clearly has better combat stats than his other competitors (as the hypothetical skeptic in my head is urging atm), I think it's fair to counter and say: that's all true, but it's not likely. And it's certainly not as likely as Smaug straight-up killing X in a fight, or mauling an army, or out-damaging a siege weapon with his fire, or all the other great stuff he offers.

And if that didn't convince you, I've got nothing else. ;-)

I smell you. 

I hear your breath. 

I feel your air. 

I see you when you're sleeping. 

I know when you're awake... 

Photo Credit: What Culture

Rejoinder #2: Smaug can't win X scenario.

I hear this a lot, so I want to very clearly state my position on it: this is absolutely a reason to decide not to take Smaug to a tournament, and it is absolutely not a reason to down-grade his score as a top-tier combat model.

First off, there are loads of scenarios where Smaug will absolutely dominate (and may in fact dominate even more than Sauron or the Balrog, in their respective armies):

• Contest of Champions: Heroic Move Turn 1. If you win, fly back 8", shoot one fireball at the army leader, roast a few troops around him, and rinse-repeat until he and 2+ troops are dead. If you lose, Barge the inevitable counter-charge (you'll kill some stuff), then play Fly-away for the rest of the game spitting fire. 
• To the Death: Fire the leader and banner. Break the army. Leave nice and full.
• Lord of Battle: This is the kill-count one. Do you need to know anything more?
• Storm the Camp: I'm pretty sure I can position my base so it takes virtually the whole camp. So if I do absolutely nothing other than fireball your leader to oblivion and Barge dudes 3" away from me, I've got a minor win. At least.
• Hold Ground: Fly to the middle! Park my huge base! Barge!
• Clash by Moonlight: Fly! Fire! 2s to wound with Fire! Barge!
• Fog of War: Fly! Fire! Huge Base! Barge!
• Seize the Prize: Tell you what--you pick it up, and I'll seize it. (Plus Fly! Fire! Huge Base! Barge!) 
• Heirlooms of Ages Past: Ditto. Next!
• Retrieval: Seize the Prize, only with two prizes. So I'll come get yours, and then I'll come back and sit on mine. 
• Divide and Conquer: Another objective mission, only it has three objectives and the center one has 3/5 VPs tied to it (for having the most/the only models within 3" of it). So if I sit on that objective, and barge the whole game, that should cover it, right? 5VPs from that, plus 1VP for breaking, plus 2VP for killing the enemy leader, means an 8-4 win at worst. It's exceedingly boring, but if that bothers you, come do something about it.
• Assassination: So in an army of one, Smaug has to be the assassin. If Smaug assassinates his target, he scores 7 VPs. If Smaug is an Army of one, he also has to be the target. So for the enemy to score 3 or more VPs, Smaug has to be wounded by the enemy's assassin, or killed outright. So either just kill the enemy assassin before he wounds you (easy 7-1 win, unless Smaug is slain), or kill the leader and break the enemy (12-3 win, unless Smaug is slain).

Now I'm not super great at math, but I'm pretty sure 12 of 18 scenarios is two-thirds (or 67%). Which means there's a two-in-three chance that if you do random scenarios, you'll end up with a scenario that's somewhere between "favorable to Smaug" and "absurdly favorable to Smaug." And just a one-in-three chance you'll get an "unwinnable" scenario. So just throwing that out there.

Second, when we say Smaug's got some "unwinnable scenarios," we're really just talking about these six, and none of them are actually "unwinnable" (or, more accurately, none of them are "auto-major-losses," and some of them are actually winnable if Smaug's feeling invincible):

• Reconnoiter: This is probably the hardest scenario to outright "win" (edit: second-hardest--see below) because if just four models get off the board, you're down 7 VPs. But the fact that both armies start off on their own board edge actually helps you here, because it gives you the full 48" of distance to play with (minus the inch or three taken up by the bases of the incoming models, unless you're fighting something silly like a Great Beast or Mumak that has a huge base). That's 45-47" of space the enemy has to traverse, while you Fly and breathe fire. An all-cavalry army makes things the most interesting, because they can fan out and force you to choose a side to play on, especially if they can successfully charge you and pin you down. So don't let them pin you down! Again: Fly! Fire! Force them to spread out! (Because you'd be amazed at how much slower an all-cavalry army moves if they have to leave 2.1" gaps between their 40mm bases, and they're trying to hug two extreme sides of the board). Don't forget about the Compel/Fire combo, as well (which, if you're positioned in the middle of the board, could reach a target on either side of the board). Prioritizing heroes is also a good way to keep things close: 2 VPs for killing the army-leader should be doable with a few fireballs, especially since a lot of all-cavalry army leaders have just one Fate point (Theoden, Amdur, Suladan, Sharku, Gothmog, Theodred, Khandish / Mahud / Haradrim Kings, etc.), and if you manage to break the enemy army that's 3 more VPs, so at worst, you'd take a 7-5 minor loss (which isn't awful). 

(Also, what happens if you get the first model off the table (and have no models left)? Does the game end? Can you score a 3-0 win that way? So many questions!)

• Domination: We've got some obtainable VPs to start, with leader kills and breaking the enemy, but they're on the light side (2 max). The good news is that we get outright control over where two of the objectives are placed, so they're going to go as close to 12" from the central objective as we can manage them, so that we can (hopefully, fingers crossed) get Smaug's base right in the middle of three objectives, so he can at least contest two of them at the end of the last turn of the game. From there, it's about picking off enemy heroes (to increase our odds of failed courage tests on far-flung objectives in the end-game), Barge/combats into troops to clear models off the board, and of course opportunistic fire (whenever we can get it) to clear things away. Done right, and it's possible to get at least 4 VPs (1 from wounding the enemy leader, 1 from breaking the enemy, and 2 from sitting on one objective so no enemy models can get within 3" of it), and if we can do that while also managing to contest another objective, we're looking at a minor loss (4-6) at the worst (4 points for outright-controlling the two far-flung objectives, and 2 points for having more models on the other two contested objectives). But if the army is low-courage (like, say, Goblin-Town or any army built on Orcs), and you've done away with heroes earlier, it could swing to a draw or even a win if the enemy breaks correctly. 

Author's note: Since writing the above, I tried Smaug out (all by his lonesome) against a 50-model, 750 point army that's one of my finalists to take to TMAT's upcoming escalation GT. One hour and five minutes later, Smaug put a nice little bow on a 6-4 win (2 points for controlling two objectives, 1 point for leader kill, 1 point for breaking the enemy, vs. 4 points for controlling two other objectives)... and that was only because five orcs passed their break tests like bosses. Everyone else? Dead or slain (yes, that's 45 enemy models slain in an hour). It was absolutely absurd, and Smaug didn't even play that well--he didn't contest any strike-offs, lost both, and only shot two fireballs off the whole game, one of which whiffed entirely and the other one required a point of Might to hit. None of it mattered. And yeah, my army engaged Smaug in the mid-game in (what proved to be) a futile attempt to wound him (what can I say? My warriors are brave, if reckless). But with an hour and ten minutes left on the game clock, Smaug would have had plenty of time to engage them piecemeal if they'd have stayed back instead.

• Capture and Control: In some respects, I think this mission is easier for Smaug than Domination for a couple of reasons. There are again only 2 "easy" VPs out there (1 for leader wound, and 1 for break), but unlike Domination (where the enemy always has the option to deploy his objective markers very far away from the center objective), these objectives are statically placed in a 1' x 1' square around the center. Control of them is based on "flipping" the objective, which means you have to be in base contact with it at the end of a turn, and no enemy models can be in base contact with it. Once flipped, the objective becomes yours, and it remains yours unless and until an enemy model flips it to their side. So the name of the game is to flip as many objectives as possible early-on (so they're yours), then kill whatever models try to approach them (or, in the alternative, force them to back away from the objectives). If you do score both bonus VPs, you only need to control two of the three objectives at the end of the game to avoid the loss (6-6 draw, at worst). The end condition is tricky here (because it ends on a 1 or 2 after break), but naturally the longer the game goes after the enemy is broken, the more likely you are to claim objectives. So if it goes to time, or until the opponent is tabled, you could win 8-4, 10-2, or even 12-0 (or, if it ends early, you could lose 2-10... so, random chance!). Why do I think this is easier than Domination? Because rather than feeling like you need to be in all places at once (because contesting is so crucial to Domination), the all-or-nothing tag nature of this scenario means the enemy can't just settle for being "near" your objectives--they have to actually make it to the end-phase in base contact with them, and you have a lot of ways to either eliminate models (fire, fighting) or move them away from the objective (Compel, backing away, and Barge) before the end phase. The Barge is particularly useful here, I think, because don't forget, you can move a few inches after you Barge (after controlling the 3" move of the models you've Barged). Normally we'd prefer a combat as a follow-up on a Barge, but that extra movement can also be used to get into base-contact with an opponent's objective, which is a flip in the end-phase (and, if you manage to base both an objective and an enemy model, so much the better--because even if you lose the combat, you don't back away -- the opponent does, because you're Smaug the Unmovable).
• Command the Battlefield: This is the opposite of Hold Ground (Maelstrom deployment, models within 12" of a corner score points, and models within the center do not). There are four VPs up for grabs if you kill the enemy leader (2) and break the enemy (2), but the other 4-8 are tied-up in having more models in a corner, so the best strategy is to try and keep the enemy off of at least one corner (again... not to beat a dead drum... but Fire! Compel!), and outnumber him on another (where you probably camp at some point). That'd be a 4-4 draw if you either break the enemy or kill the leader (2VP from one of those win conditions, plus 2 from the corner you control), and a 6-4 win if you can do both while controlling one corner/keeping him off another, or a 6-6 draw if you can control one corner and leave him with just three. Again, in an "unwinnable" scenario, I think you can live with either of those scenarios.
• Breakthrough: Basically Static Domination, where the four objectives are placed 12" from the center of each board edge. This creates a very nice 1' by 1' square in the middle, and a very nice Right Triangle wherein Smaug can sit between two objectives very cozily while threatening a third. Only 3VPs are available that aren't objective-based (2 for killing the leader, and 1 for breaking the enemy). As a tactical matter, you're probably better served sitting on your own objective and trying to contest the other two in the middle. If you cheat and put Smaug's base on your back objective (so it's physically impossible for the enemy to get within 3" of it), you'll score an additional 1 point (so you're up to 4 with the break and leader kill VPs), and then it's a matter of clearing off one other center objective. If you do that, the max VPs the enemy can score is 3 (1 for their own objective in the back, and two for the center one that they control, assuming you haven't managed to contest that one). 4-3 isn't a huge win, but a win is a win, right? Plus, pick off a few heroes early on, get Ancient Evil to bear on a broken army, and you never know what'll happen.
• Defend the Supplies: With all due respect to Reconnoiter, I think this scenario is probably the hardest one for Smaug to outright win. It's an objective game with 6 objective markers, only the aim is to destroy half of them (and keep the others safe). Only the only way to destroy them is to be in base-contact with them without doing anything for a turn. That's going to be hard to do with Smaug (at least early-on, before you thin out the herd), so you're probably playing for VP denial (kill the enemy banner to get rid of 2VPs), and then trying to keep the score close by killing the enemy leader and breaking the enemy (4VPs). If you can do that while sitting on one of your supply markers (so it can't be reached and disabled), that's a 4-4 draw. Or, if the enemy is depleted and has left their markers un-guarded, you could make a late-play for their back supplies to eek out an 8-6 or 10-6 win. Hey, I know I'm grasping for straws here, but it's something!

Now at the risk of stating the obvious, these contingency plans for contesting these disadvantageous scenarios all assume that Smaug won't die (so if he bites the dust, we're toast). But the fact that his survival is at least in play (and, against most conventional armies, will be highly likely) is a testament to how great a model he is. The Balrog and Sauron aren't armies of one. But could they function as one if they had to? Maybe... but I think they struggle on more scenarios than Smaug does, because they have small bases. And they can't do wounds when Barging. And they don't have anything as threatening as dragon fire. And they can be trapped. And they can't fly over enemy models. Etc.

Come now, don't be shy.

Step into the light... and trusssst in meeeeee!

Photo Credit: Daarkan on DeviantArt

Which brings me to the second, opposite side of the coin: all these contingency plans for contesting these disadvantageous scenarios also assume that Smaug will both kill the enemy army leader, and break the enemy army. And you know what's crazy? Against 90-95% of armies, that's absolutely not a crazy assumption. At all.

Now, in fairness, maybe it also wouldn't be a crazy assumption for the Balrog or Sauron, either. But again, the absence of anything that does nearly as much damage as Fire or a S9 Barge makes it harder to rack up the kills needed--the Balrog is looking at maybe 7 kills a turn, assuming he (1) gets to move first (with no Might points) so he can (2) score a hit with his fiery lash (with no Might) to (3) kill a model (with no Might points) [1 kill] before completing his (4) charge into three models (who happen to be placed perfectly so he can fit his perfectly round 60mm base into them), before (5) beating all three in a combat (with no Might) so he can (6) slay all of them (with no might) [4 kills], and then (7) heroic combat (okay, that he can do--even with no Might) into (8) three more perfectly-placed models around his 60mm base and then (9) beat those three in combat (with no might) so he can (10) slay all three of them (again... with no Might) [7 kills]. Whew. That was a lot of work. No wonder he has no Might left. Now we just gotta rinse-repeat that 3 more times, without any flubs... to get to 20 kills.

Sauron's path to breaking an enemy force on his own is arguably harder, because unlike the Balrog, he (1) has no heroic combats unless he burns might, and (2) he has just a 40mm base, so tagging three models in a single fight is even harder. Unstoppable! helps (but only if the enemy plays along by chucking a ton of woundable dudes in Sauron's fight). Chill Soul is great, but you have to move first to cast spells when you're an army of one--and it's hard to move first each turn if you're also trying to be in combat each turn (because you have to be within 6" of the enemy). Plus you only move 6". And if either Sauron or the Balrog run into a hero or three (because, again--they're taking on an entire army), that kill count is going to drop, because it takes longer to chew through heroes (and you tend to lose more fights against them). Smaug's path is just a lot cleaner (plus, you know, he can't be trapped and has 20 wounds to chew through).

And if Smaug has the cleanest path to out-slaying an entire army, I think that says something about his ability to kill stuff. Just sayin'.

Rejoinder #3: Smaug can't make back his points in kills (which is, admittedly, an absurdly high 700 points in kills).

This brings me back full-circle to Jay's rationale for leaving Smaug off his list. Smaug got an honorable mention because, at 700 points, there are times where he'll struggle to make back his points cost. 

Now let me make a couple of admissions, before diving deeper into this. First, Jay's absolutely right: there are times where Smaug will definitely struggle to make back his points cost. If the enemy is playing a bunch of 4 point goblins, and they all spread out, and Smaug can't get into more than 2-3 of them each turn, yeah--he's going to struggle. Or if there are nine ringwraiths throwing free channeled Transfixes at him on auto-6s the entire game. Or the other side has the Necromancer and 10 Castellans with morgul blades. Fair enough. I concede that. (Though in fairness, those would be terrible match-ups for any top-tier slayer.)

There are also times when Smaug is, frankly, just going to underperform. This is a dice game. Dice botch. And while Smaug has some Might to fix botches, it's only some Might, and occasionally he needs it for other things (like if a Heroic Strike hero does manage to charge him). There's also times where the other side isn't going to botch (they get lots of 6s to hit with siege weapons, they get to Fight 10 on every strike-off, they always roll 6s to wound, they win every roll-off, etc.). If that happens, it's very hard to win back your points. (Although, again--it's hard for most models to win back their points in those scenarios.)

Third, while I do think the "make back your points" standard can become unduly harsh (and not just to Smaug--to a lot of models), there is an efficiency concern that is totally fair. If model A costs X, and offers me so much killing power, while model B costs 50% less than X while offering me 80% of A's killing power, then Model B absolutely has a claim to being "better" than Model A (pound-for-pound, point-for-point, etc.), even if Model A would cream Model B 90% of the time in a straight-up fight. And if that efficiency concern is really important for how you look at slaying models, Smaug may fall behind because while he's awesome at killing things, I don't know that he's 100% more awesome at killing things than a model that costs 350 points instead of 700 (like the Balrog). Or 200% better at killing things than a model that costs 250 points instead of 700 (like Azog). Or 600% better at killing things than a model that costs 100 points instead of 700 (like Buhrdur(-ish), or a Mahud King--gee, he keeps popping up, doesn't he?). 

Those caveats aside, however, I do want to push back on this notion of making back your points, just a little.

I won't belabor the first thing, because we've already delved into it in the other two rejoinders: but if "earning your points" means "killing the number of points you cost," the Balrog and Sauron are likely to have trouble doing that, too. 350 and 400 look like low points levels because 700 is absurdly high. But they aren't actually low points levels (in any other context, we'd be saying yikes!). Since neither of them can kill mass troops without help (see above), killing their points usually means taking out a couple of heroes. If the heroes are low-tier (and/or on foot), maybe it's a walk in the park. If they're high tier (like Aragorn, or Elendil, or another big-three baddie), or highly mobile (like Glorfindel or a Witch-King on Fell Beast), maybe it's not. Smaug, at least, has more tools than they do to recoup those points, not less.

Do you think flattery will keep you alive?

Or are you just trying to get me to talk about myself?!

Because if you are...

I will gladly do so--in SONG FORM!

Photo Credit: Middle-Earth Film Saga Wiki

Second thought: if we think about "earning your points" in this game like we do in other games, it's hard not to think about the concept of trading pieces. A pawn that takes another pawn before being removed earns its points. So does a pawn that takes a rook (and then some). A rook that only manages to take a pawn before being removed, does not earn its points--it's not a good trade. When we're assessing whether a particular piece performed "well" or not in this context, we're not all that concerned about whether the piece survived to the end of the game (although that's always a plus)--we're concerned with whether it took out more than it was worth before it was taken. If so, that's a good trade--if not, that's a bad one.

Now SBG isn't chess, but there are a lot of times where trading factors into the game. If you have a Great Beast of Gorgoroth (as I've been playing with recently), you sort of expect that at some point, the beast will die. It's not particularly fast, tanky, or hard-hitting, but it's just fast enough, tanky enough, and hard-hitting enough that the enemy might just devote a lot of resources to dealing with it so it can't run wild (calling Heroic Moves on its side of the board, pouring 40-50 bow shots into it in an attempt to kill it or it's commander, drawing a big combat hero into it, maybe the enemy wizard's full attention for a couple turns, that kind of stuff). And so long as its commander isn't my army leader (which, if I'm being perfectly honest... it probably shouldn't be), whether the beast lives or dies isn't really all that relevant. If the beast manages to kill 50-150 points worth of enemy stuff before it dies (because the beast itself, once you work out the cost of the orc commander and 9 orc archers in the howdah, comes out to about 60 points), that's an excellent trade. 

But even if the Beast kills nothing (because it's immobilized the whole time, or takes too many bow shots), that could be a good trade, too, if the amount of damage/spells/heroic resources it consumes in the taking means the rest of my army isn't taking damage/spells/heroic resources on the way in. Because 50 bow shots at a Great Beast are 50 bow shots that aren't pouring into my orc warriors, or warg riders, or army leader, or his Fell Beast. That has value. And in competitive games (at least), a lot of the time those little advantages add up over the course of the game to the point where they become VPs. Those fifty shots don't pour into 18 orcs, so they don't kill six of them, so we're four models away from breaking at the end of the game (instead of two models past break point), so we don't cough up any VPs for breaking (and might get some bonus points ourselves). Or when it's all said and done, we still manage to get to that objective we're intent on camping on. Or whatever else the play was with the Beast. 

That's not something that shows up on a kill-count register, but it absolutely changes the way the game plays out, in our favor. And while Smaug may never get 700 points in kills (if you're playing him in a 700 point game, he won't unless he table-wipes), he can absolutely get those little advantages that, of the course of the game, add up to VPs and a win. And if he does that, hasn't he "earned back" his points?

Last thought: I know that in two important respects, Smaug's nothing like this Great Beast analogy I've been droning on and on about for a couple of paragraphs. First, Smaug's almost always your entire army, which means by definition he's not going to be soaking up damage, spells, and resources for "the rest of your army." All true. 

Second important distinction: the concept of "trading" is all about getting back X amount of value with a particular piece, before that piece is ultimately removed. Great Beasts: ultimately removed (probably--sometimes he surprises you). Gulavhar: could be removed (boy is it a bear, though, especially if you don't have much shooting). Even Azog: 100% removable. So making back their value is all about racing the clock--how much can you kill (or prevent from being killed by drawing threat) before you're inevitably killed?

But what if the Great Beast is never killed? Well, that changes the calculus, doesn't it? If the Great Beast soaks up 50 bow shots, and four Transfixes, and a couple turns of combat, and is still alive at the end of the game, we haven't actually traded anything for all that benefit, have we? They're bonuses. Free gifts. Extra add-ons. Same with Gully, if he survives. And Azog. When a piece isn't traded, all its accomplishments are gravy.

Which means "trading" Smaug is only a problem if Smaug is slain. And Smaug... is really, really, reaaaaaaaaally hard to slay.

So again: if Smaug survives to the end of the game, and has killed the army leader, the banner, a couple odd heroes, clears some objectives, breaks an enemy army, and squats on a couple objectives to eek out a close win--again, all of which he could absolutely do--I kinda think he's "made back his points" (even if the sum total of all the models he's slain only amounts to 350 points, instead of 700). 

If that didn't convince you... well, I tried. 

And now I'm done.

Looking Ahead

If you made it all the way to the end... congratulations. You definitely earned it this time. I do feel this is one of the most fun conversations in the game, so be sure to share your rankings in the comments!

And while my review of Jay's top-10 slayers is done, we've got a lot more on-deck in the coming weeks when it comes to the best slayers in the game (and maybe some others). So stay tuned!