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Thursday, February 25, 2021

Overly Pedantic Stats: The Ten WORST Slayers (Evil)

 Hey Reader!

In our last post we looked at the top ten worst slaying heroes for the Forces of Good. Since Rythbryt has taken his look at Jay Clare's list of the top ten slayers for the Forces of Evil and then did his follow-up post on the top three in greater depth, in the same vein as our last post we will be looking at something completely different: the absolute WORST evil slayers in the game. 

In this post we continue by looking at the stats to find the "top ten" worst slayers for the Forces of Evil. These models fall under the same parameters as our last post: the models must be capable of dealing wounds (which actually doesn't prevent anyone from making this list - I guess that makes sense for evil models?), the model must be a hero, and all troop types (siege weapons, monsters, etc.) are on the table. As you can imagine, no monsters made this list.

We will be looking at five categories for this, as we always do: hero slaying capabilities (to show how well you kill heroes), troop slaying capabilities (for how well you chew through armies), defensive capabilities (for staying power to keep killing things), support capabilities (for making it easier for people to kill around you), and mobility (to get into range to kill stuff, be that at range or in melee).

So with no further ado, the literal WORST evil killers in the game!


Honorable Mentions:

A few quick honorable mentions that are bad at killing things, but are not "The Worst Ten in the Game" bad at killing things.

Shelob: When she charges, she's a terror of a killing machine with a lot of wounds so she can last for a long time. When she doesn't charge, though, there's a reason why Samwise can beat her. We didn't rank her here because her speed and special rules give you a good chance at getting the charge, but just be careful if you don't: 1 Attack, even at S7 with Venom, is not good for killing anything more than a rank-and-file warrior.

The Necromancer: I know, it feels weird saying that a version of Sauron just missed the cut, but it's true: with a 5+ Chill Soul with no free casting attempt each turn (you only get a free Will Point if you spend one) and only 1 Attack at F7 S6, you actually don't have a good chance of doing damage with this profile. He's totally worth taking, but not great for slaying things on his own.

Barrow Wight: I thought for sure that a model with only 1 Attack would make the Top Ten, but as it happens there are a lot of shamans and drummers, so you end up with a lot people with only 1 Attack. The thing that moved this model out of the Top Ten was the fact that it wounds against Courage, and that it can Paralyze a target before fighting, both helping in slaying the model and keeping the D7 wight safe from danger. I didn't even take into consideration the presence of allied spear support, the aura of a shade, or any other things, and it was already not in the Top Ten.

Shade: Similarly, we have the shade. It's only F1 S1, but the fact that it wounds on Courage means that it will rarely wound on worse than 6s, and most of the time it can wound on 5s. And with 3 Wounds at D8 past its own aura, it's hard to kill it even if it has a bad Fight Value. 

Sharkey: And I'm going to get ahead of this one before it comes up: no, I'm not just a Sharkey fanboy who doesn't want to see him among the worst slayers in the game (though, admittedly, I am a Sharkey fanboy). He's actually decent at killing things: at F4 S4, Sharkey has good starting stats even when combined with his 1 Attack - far better than a lot of the shamans and drummers on this list. And with 1 Might and access to a two-handed staff, Sharkey can become a good killing model when combined with an ally (which is very likely, considering how many models you will likely have in your army). On top of this you get 4 Immobilize spells per game, and when combined with D4 with 2W and 1F, you have a model that is subpar, but not on the Top Ten.

So with that, the Top Ten WORST slayers for the Forces of Evil:


#10: Orc Drummer/Uruk-Hai Drummer (Barad Dur/Mordor/Isengard/Various Legendary Legions)

The Orc Drummer (and the Uruk-Hai Drummer, who has the same stats) looks like a standard Uruk-Hai: F4 S4 with 1 Attack, and D5 with 1 Wound and 1 Fate. So on the whole, this is bad for a hero but not bad for a warrior. In some respects you could say that the Uruk-Hai Drummer is a better profile as it gets Woodland Creature in an Isengard army and the legendary legions it is part of, but on the whole I don't see that likely to change the likelihood of slaying all that much.

This is not a bad profile - it's just not that great. And that's what makes it #10.


#9: Mordor Siege Bow (Barad Dur/Mordor/Army of Gothmog)

That's right: we have a siege weapon on this list! With a 5+ Shoot Value and very poor stats in melee, the Mordor Siege Bow is the worst siege engine in the game as you rarely hit, especially once you factor in one or more In the Way rolls.

But there's a second issue that brings it down, and that is that the models are only D4, as they have armor, but not heavy armor. This is actually very rare with siege weapons: the vast majority of siege crew members are D5+, but these guys are D4. That means that you can be shot to death easily by archers, reducing your killing ability with this weapon, not to mention cavalry and infantry can slaughter you if they catch you.

To their credit, they do get the auto-kill ability with a S9 shot, so at least if it hits it has a good chance of wounding the target. That's what saves it from placing lower on the list. 


#8: Moria Blackshield Shaman (Moria)

While Goblin Blackshield warriors have +1 Defense over normal goblins, the Moria Blackshield Shaman lacks that extra +1 Defense for reasons I don't know. At F2 S3 with 1 Attack it's not good at killing things in close combat, but the shaman does have two useful tricks to help it kill things. With the Shatter skill the shaman can cause many models to be unarmed, making it harder to kill the shaman and easier to beat in combat. 

But more than that you get access to the Tremor spell, giving you the ability to knock all targets prone within D6" in a straight line and deal a Strength 6 hit to each of them. So you have a decent chance (albeit on a high casting difficulty) to deal more than one wound in a single turn. And so with lots of options, you have more tools than the others on this list to give yourself the upper hand and/or deal damage.

Admittedly very few people ever use Tremor on this guy (preferring three casts of Shatter), but hey, from a stats perspective we evaluated it, and it helped him rank higher.


#7: Ashrak (Moria)

Ashrak is one of the "monster shamans" from Moria, and thus sports the typical F2 S3 with 1 Attack of the Moria shamans. Ashrak also possesses a two-handed staff and the ability to inflict the Paralyze effect on a 4+ when he does a wound, which means you actually have a decent chance at doing damage on Round 2 (assuming that your S3 with only 1 Might is enough to wound, which, admittedly, is not good odds). And with the typical D4 with 2 Wounds and 1 Fate for Moria goblins, you are decently survivable for this list, but not great compared to most models in the line.

If he had 2 Fate and the ability to turn wargs near him into nukes, he would have been pushed out of the Top Ten (which is why you don't see Druzhag on this list), but alas, he does not.


#6: Moria Goblin Shaman (Moria)

As we mentioned above, Moria Goblin Shamans are not great in combat, lacking in resiliency and killing power. In fact, they have the exact same stats as the Moria Blackshield Shaman, though their spells are far worse at killing things, as Fury is a small hope for boosting resilience, and Transfix on a 5+ is an unlikely chance that you wound with this guy.

What raises him to #6, however, is that he has a spear, which gives him a chance at doing wounds to an enemy without taking wounds in return. Add onto this the chance that the goblin in front of him will pass a Fury test, and you have a decent chance of sticking people without being jabbed in return.


#5: Bill Ferny (Sharkey's Rogues/Chief's Ruffians)

I love Sharkey's Rogues, but there's a reason that so many of the top five worst slayers are from this list. Bill Ferny is one of several models from this army list that follows the mantra, "it's better to be cheap than good," and Bill is, admittedly, very cheap. With only F3 S3 and 1 Attack, Bill is as good as a normal ruffian (which is not very good), and for resilience is only marginally better, sporting no armor, 2 Wounds, and only 1 Fate Point.

Unlike Harry Goatleaf who can stop infantry models from moving (and thus avoid bad charges and put your men in a position to get good charges), Bill is just...not that great. The best thing he has going for him is a whip that offers him 1) a throwing weapon that does a S1 wound, and 2) a chance to whirl to hit everyone in his combat (which, realistically, if you're already F3, dropping to F1 is really not that bad). So unlike the top three, at least he has a way to deal damage when not in combat, and at least he has a high possible threshold for damage in a turn, even if there is less than a 1% chance he actually pulls it off.


#4: Ted Sandyman (Sharkey's Rogues/Chief's Ruffians)

Ted Sandyman has a pretty typical hobbit hero profile: F2 with 1 Attack, but boasts an incredible S3 (which is very high for hobbits). He can also throw stones, giving him a way to deal damage when not in combat (which is why he is not in the top three). He does suffer from the Shire problem of only having D3 with 1 Wound and 1 Fate, but at least he has Resistant to Magic, so it could be worse (as is evidenced by the fact that he is #4 and not higher on this list).

But yeah - he's pretty bad. He doesn't even get an axe to give you a chance to Piercing Strike if you wanted it. But at least he has ways to deal wounds.


#3: Grima Wormtongue (Isengard)

So, fun story: I debated about whether to make this guy #1 because while he can do wounds (the rule does not forbid him from doing wounds, so he's an eligible person for this competition), he typically doesn't because if he does he can be attacked, and at D3 with only 1 Wound and no Fate, you really don't want to do that.

But since he can strike wounds and has a horse, he's actually not abysmal when it comes to wounding things: his F2 and S3 with only 1 Attack are doing him no favors, but hey: if you win the fight, and especially if you charged an infantry model while mounted on a horse, you're actually doing okay.

The biggest issue for him is 1) not wanting to do wounds, and 2) if he ever loses a fight after trying to strike wounds, he's in trouble. His resilience is I think the lowest of any model in the game, and that's saying something because we looked at Tilda in the last post. So as a slayer he's not that great.

Don't get me wrong, he's a pain of a control character and you should totally field him. But if you're looking at slaying, he's among the worst.

But wait, Grima is not done yet...


#2: Worm (Sharkey's Rogues/Chief's Ruffians)

Grima's profile gets worse! Worm (aka, "Grima when he works for Sharkey") has the same profile as Grima, except that 1) you can attack him as early as Turn 1, and 2) he gets no horse, so his resilience and damage capability are lower in this ranking. 

With little to no offense, little to no defense, and very limited speed to escape issues, this guy isn't going to kill hardly anything unless he can get a model alone so that only that model can see him (in which case he goes up to F4 and 3 Attacks). So basically unless your opponent leaves one guy on an objective or you are able to slaughter an entire warband save one model and then block line of sight for all other models to Worm and that remaining guy, Worm will not be doing much for your damage total.

In most cases this won't happen (as he moves slowly and your opponent can typically move people to see him), but it's worth noting that he does have one thing working in his favor: the pose for the model is groveling on the ground, so he's very hard to see past terrain. That might help him. But not enough to move him from the #2 spot.

Now admittedly he actually has something working in his favor to keep him alive, and that is that your opponent may not want to wound him because if he can wound Sharkey then Worm will try to kill him. But that's little comfort, and a lot of players may just say, "Eh, he'll contribute to the break point, so let's finish him off," and I don't think they're wrong.

And so at last we come to what I think is objectively the WORST slayer for the Forces of Evil in the game...


#1: Goblin Scribe (Goblin Town)

Literally this is the worst slayer in the game, whether good or evil. Tilda was our "champion" for the Forces of Good competition, and even she is better than him by a hair. Not only is the scribe F1 (like Tilda) and S2 (like Tilda) with 1 Attack (like Tilda) while being unarmed (like Tilda) with no Might (like Tilda). Not only is he only D2 (like Tilda) with 1 Wound (like Tilda) and 1 Fate (less than Tilda). In addition to all of this - if it could get any worse - he can't move on his own. That's right: you have to use two models - probably 5" move goblins who are only D3, so easy to shoot to death - to move this guy. So if he gets pinned down, he's in heaps of trouble. He also cannot go prone to take advantage of terrain for In the Ways, and is very high up, so only specific types of terrain will conceal him from ranged attacks (whereas Tilda is very, very small, and can take advantage of lots of terrain for cover).

And granted, everyone is going to say, "Hey Centaur: why aren't we considering the added slaying power and protection from the goblins he can summon?" Truthfully, I did - the issue is that the stats for the goblins are so bad and the chance that you summon only 0-2 of them at a time is so high (which means you might not have enough to move him, plus they are not giving any In the Ways against shooting anyway), that there's a good chance that it wouldn't change anything in a fight involving him. Add onto this that his 1 unarmed S2 attack is wounding D3 hobbits and elves on - wait for it - 6s, and you just have a model that is objectively bad at wounding things.

Great model. If you're running Goblin Town it's probably because of this guy, and he should be your auto-include model (even over the Goblin King). But he's no slayer, :P


Conclusion

And that's our list! Did we miss anyone? Did we rank your favorite crappy model as more (or less) crappy than they deserve? Have you had amazing luck with one of these models that beats the odds? Let us know in the comments!

Watching the stars,

Centaur

"(Your teacher) is a human...and is therefore blinkered and fettered by the limitations of your kind." ~ Firenze, Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix

9 comments:

  1. I don't think I disagree with any of the rankings, though I do object to the honorable mention of the Necromancer. On paper, he doesn't look good at killing things, but when you consider that he can Transfix an enemy model (if the enemy's FV is less than F7) or can channel Shroud of Shadows on himself (if the enemy's FV is higher than F7) after Cursing away all of the enemy Fate, you only have to deal 1 Wound to kill any hero/monster in the game. If fighting a model that has been Paralyzed by a Mirkwood Spider, you can all but guarantee killing anything in the game - though admittedly, if you are charged, you're probably going to struggle to kill stuff.

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    1. Without spoiling my slayer rankings for Evil models, I 100% agree. I, however, would go further: while the Paralyze from a Spider is obviously great, the Necromancer doesn't need it to score wounds. Even a 5+ Chill Soul will do that against models with no Will (if you have the Army Bonus active), as will F7/S6.

      I'd also take Shelob off the list--F7, S7, and Monstrous Charge with Venom may not kill Aragorn, but it's plenty-good to kill a Captain of wherever-ville. ;-) And yes, I know she doesn't have Might, so maybe you can't charge all the time. But if hobbits get credit for _maybe_ throwing stones (or Sharkey gets credit for having other models nearby), I think a giant spider should get credit for _maybe_ charging. ;-)

      Having said that, those were both honorable mentions. While I'd have Sharkey below an Uruk-Hai drummer (certainly the Black Guard drummer), I think the top of the list is spot-on.

      As a side-note: isn't it weird just how much "better" the top of this list is than good's? There's a surprising lack of "unarmed" models on the evil side.

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    2. Yeah I hear what you guys are saying, and I'm sure a lot of our readership agrees (I personally don't run the Necromancer, so this is purely stats and not usage-based), and I look forward to discussing him in the slayers podcast.

      As a quick teaser of why he didn't make my Top 50 (which I'm going to get a lot of flak for, I'll call it now), I think a lot of people assume that the Necromancer has more Will Points for casting spells than he actually does. Since he needs 1+ Will to stay on the table, his 25 Will actually becomes 24 in reality to work with. You then lose 1 every time you are in combat, have to spend at least 1 to cast (but for Chill Soul and even, if you want to be safe and not spend Might, Shroud of Shadows, it's probably 2 from your store plus the free one that you get when you spend a Will Point), plus you want at least a few for Fate Point saves, how many casts is the Necromancer actually doing on a given turn? My math (which assumed 8 combats, 6 Fate saves, and 10 casting dice) says that for the entire game you are getting 8 Attacks total (that is the equivalent of 3-4 combats with other heroes) and 5-6 spells for the entire game. And all of those have a decent (if not more than decent) chance of either being blocked by Fate or just failing to wound entirely, so your max threshold with the Necromancer is actually not that great.

      But wait, there's more! It gets even worse if you fight magic, as you don't have Resistant to Magic, so you're spending Will to counter that. So now your magic casting goes down to like 3-4 spells for the entire game, and maybe you get in all 8 Attacks (though some may not even have a chance to wound). Compare that to any ringwraith, any of the Big Three, and heck even a number of the troll heroes (not to mention war beasts), and I'm sorry - this dude is pretty darn low on the totem pole, even without factoring in cost.

      But yes - join us for the podcast where I tell you EVEN MORE about why this model is oh so important for a Dol Goldur army and not a good slayer at all, :P

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    3. Wonderful podcast tease. 10/10.
      ;-)

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  2. Mordor Siege bow on its own, useless. 3 Bows, devastating. At only 150 points for 3 and another 135-145 odd for 3 captains, that's a hell of a lot of killing power for sub 300 points. The bow only needs to hit ONCE, and it can do 5 times its points cost in one fell swoop.
    And regarding the issue for in the ways, that's a skill issue, not a statistics issue. You're assuming that you'll always roll in the ways that negate the shot, that should NEVER or minimally happen.

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    1. The in the way rolls is highly dependent on the model the shot scatters onto - if you get the 5+ required To Hit but then scatter onto a model that's within 3" that has other models in the way (which could include some of your own), the actual model you kill may not be that great. Theoretically, hitting the model you want could pay for the siege bow (or several), but a 5+ To Hit, followed by a 6 on the scatter is a statistics issue (one in 18 shots if you don't burn Might - otherwise it's likely a one in nine shots proposition).

      By comparison, for the same cost as three siege bows (and only requiring one Captain), a War Catapult hits on 4s with a reroll on the To Hit and Scatter rolls from the Troll, so he's supposed to hit his intended target once every four rounds (which is better than the once every six rounds you'd get from three siege bows) or almost once in two rounds if you spend your Might). This is a far better deal . . .

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    2. In the ways are a skill issue. Most people also play it wrong by scattering onto a target the crew cant see. Hitting on a 5+ is not an issue. You only need to hit once, and don't need 6's (you just dont want a 1). Based on that information, youre chance calculations are different.

      The catapult is an overpriced slug, that maybe kills a model a turn.

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    3. If the idea is to kill _anything_, you're right - you don't need the 6. However, if your goal is to hit _a particular thing_, you do need the 6. So as with most statistical questions, it comes down to the metric you're trying to meet. In the optimistic/first case, you need a 5+ To Hit, a 2+ scatter, and a 3+ To Wound the model you hit (against most things - occasionally a 4+ and against Sauron a 5+), with the potential for additional hits based on how the throw-back roll goes for you. With the initial target alone, 1/3 x 5/6 x 2/3 is 10/36, or roughly one kill per three turns. For a 50pt unit, this isn't bad . . .

      . . . but to say that you only need to hit once and that the Catapult is overpriced is not entirely correct. Yes, if the War Catapult hits a single model that has no other models within 2" of it, it probably kills one model a turn and will never come close to making up its points. However, any scatter roll of a 5 can be mighted into a 6 (and that assumes your opponent has retained their scatter targets and hasn't packed their models close together because - I don't know - the lines are closing in?) - and any direct target you fire at is going to have models near it that you knock prone and deal collateral damage to. If your opponent is running a shieldwall (most factions do), you're looking at five files (or possibly seven, based on how tightly packed the models are) or roughly 10 models being affected - and with the collateral wounds wounding on 5s or 4s (depending on the defense of the enemy wall), you're looking at 3-5 collateral wounds in addition to the target model being wounded on 3s (occasionally 4s) . . . and anyone that survives starts prone on the following round. THAT is the kind of shot that only needs to hit once to make a point - 4-6 models that cost 8-10pts each gets you a good way into your cost after one shot.

      The cost math is different than three-to-one, since there's a requirement that you field at least one hero of Fortitude or higher for each siege engine you bring - so if you start with one captain and a war catapult (a bit over 200pts) vs. one captain and a siege bow (around 100pts), you're only going to get an additional captain plus one siege bow for the remainder. The catapult's math on getting any kill is 4s rerollable To Hit and a rerollable scatter, which becomes 3/4 x 35/36 (for an any hit) x 2/3 or basically one kill every other turn (which is about what you're supposed to get from 2 siege bows). If you're fishing for the direct hit with a might-up on the scatter, you're looking at 3/4 x 5/9 or 5/12 . . . if statistics are your friend, you should get the direct hit you want in the first two shots of the game.

      Finally, if you have your war catapults transition from shooting to melee (which they can do by moving the catapult forward), you get a 100pt Mordor Troll out of the deal which offsets the cost of the shooting end of the catapult to only 65pts (with the severed heads upgrade) . . . that's probably recoupable with shooting attacks. Paired with other heroes, Mordor Trolls are great for draining enemy hero stats and dismounting nearby heroes with Hurls - call me crazy if you must, but I think there's far more value locked up in the catapults.

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  3. Thank you for the in depth analysis!

    To tackle your last point about catapults, you are right about everything except the locked up value. Siege engines rarely, if ever, get into combat due to the exact statistics you have provided. Every turn without shooting dramatically reduces your chances of wounding at an efficient rate.

    I've extensively played siege bows nearly every game that I've played for the last 6 months (roughly 1 per week).

    The greatest positive is actually your opponents fear of something that can autokill across the board, and will abandon all strategy in an effort to 'avoid' them. This is priceless and worth more than 50 points.

    Last note, I would like to see less demonisation of siege engines as a whole. I don't think it helps the game and tends to skew people's perceptions of them as 'unfun' or 'not interactive enough for both players'.

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