Good morning gamers,
Today we dig into a list that is very similar to a list that I ran years ago at a THRO tournament before the new rules dropped (and before the Legendary Legion): the Black Riders Legendary Legion. I've always loved the Ringwraith models - and while managing their Will and risking them being charged to death by the weakest of warriors can be difficult, I love how much raw magical power these guys have and the flexibility they give to your battle lines. But what happens when you run "just Ringwraiths" instead of the hordes of warriors and other beater heroes they usually accompany? Well, you get a REALLY interesting game - especially with the new Legion. Let's dig in and see how we use this list!
The List
With their mounted models returned to the store, you can now get everything you need for this army as follows:
- You'll need the 9 Ringwraiths on foot;
- You'll also need three packs of the 9 mounted Ringwraiths; and
- You can optionally get the new Witch-King blister (which will give you an extra Ringwraith on foot and mounted from the other sets - maybe a good Christmas or birthday gift for someone interested in Ringwraiths, but not interested in running "all Ringwraiths").
Interestingly enough, this comes out to ~$250 - the same as getting all of the Haradrim models we talked about last time! Still, these are iconic models that are used heavily in the early missions of the Quest of the Ringbearer campaign and can be a fun army to use if you like magic and high-risk, high-reward armies. Let's look at the list that we're running:
- The Witch-King of Angmar on horse with 3M/10W/2F [ARMY LEADER]
- Ringwraith #1 on horse with 2M/8W/1F
- Ringwraith #2 on horse with 2M/8W/1F
- Ringwraith #3 on horse with 2M/8W/1F
- Ringwraith #4 on horse with 2M/8W/1F
- Ringwraith #5 on horse with 2M/8W/1F
- Ringwraith #6 on horse with 2M/8W/1F
- Ringwraith #7 on horse with 2M/8W/1F
700 points, 8 models, 8 Black Darts cast on a 5+, 8 D6+ models, 8 cavalry, 17 Might
We have one extra guy in this photo, but Ringwraith #8 didn't want to be left in the box . . . |
At 700 points, you can't get all nine Ringwraiths in your army with "the bare essentials" of resources allocated to each. Don't get me wrong - you COULD run all nine models with no upgrades for 600 points, allocating 20 points of Might, Will, or Fate to your models. Split 9 ways, this means all of your normal Ringwraiths probably have 1 Might/1 Fate, while the Witch-King has 2 Might/2 Fate, but it seems to me that by dropping 75 points worth of models to get +15 resources for the remaining 8 models (~2 points more for each of them) is a better move. Yes, you'd want the extra guy in some scenarios, but having a second Might point to boost rolls or call Heroic Moves/Combats seems to have more utility.
What might be controversial is my choice of +1 Will on the seven Ringwraiths (total of 8 Will) instead of getting the second Fate point. I did this for a simple reason: Fate isn't a guaranteed save. If it was, I'd take it - but functionally, a model that counts on passing 2 Fate saves to keep it alive will probably fail one of them. By taking +1 Will, I've given myself an extra casting option (either to throw an extra die at a spell to make it go off more reliably OR to cast an extra time with a single die). I talked about this in my post on the Black Riders LL in our Stuff of Legends Series earlier in the year - adding extra Will to your Ringwraiths is essential to making this list work, so I've opted for that over a Fate point. If you face a small group of heroes, having the Fate is probably the better play, but against hordes, you need to be able to do damage with magic - and since Black Dart is hard to cast, that means having some Will on you (and probably some extra).
Army Theory
Let's get this out of the way: this Legion isn't going to be fun for most armies to face. Why? Because when it comes to magical dominance, this army is one of the toughest armies to face - and most armies don't resist magic of any kind very well. Sure, there are heroes like Elendil, Glorfindel, or Galadriel, Lady of Light who can be difficult to fight with magic (or make other heroes hard to fight with magic). Sure, you have monsters like the Balrog and Sauron who are devilishly hard to tie down with magic too (and hard to wound even if you get spells off against them). But with the possible exception of the Vanquishers of the Necromancer, this list has the nastiest magical barrages in the game, as it pumps out up to 8 magical spells each turn and some of those can be channelled Transfixes that don't need you to declare that you're channelling them or spend Might to channel them AND always get a 6 for their casting roll . . . even tough cookies like the Balrog and Sauron don't really want to fight that.
Furthermore, this is the only army in the game (currently) that can choose to quarter itself at a moment's notice, allowing them to take advantage of a momentary points advantage (assuming that their limited numbers can still give them victory). This has led some players (like Sharbie - read his thoughts here) to think that the list needs modifications to make them more balanced - and while I think there's a good case for this tactic being used unfairly, it's balanced neatly by some of the limitations of the army - let's dig into some of these now.
First and foremost, this is an army that will live and die based on how long their horses can stay alive. Horses are required purchases for all of the models in this list and while the Ringwraiths can have 0-2 Fate points (0-3 for the Witch-King) to keep themselves alive, they lack Horselord to keep their horses alive and they didn't get their "titles" to allow you to gain the Shadow Lord's protection from archery. With their horses under them, these models can all be F5/2A models with S4 and the knock down against most infantry models, and paired with their free Channelled Transfixes (halves FV rounding up, halves Attacks rounding up), they can pose a danger to most heroes and monsters in the game - though wounding on 6s or worse against D7+ models will cause a struggle.
Without the need to spend Will to fight in combat, this might look incredibly lethal - and it certainly can be. But without horses, these are 6" move Spirit models with F5/1A and no knock-down, making them very ineffective at wounding enemy troops. Sure, their F5 may carry them for a while, but with no ability to support each other (and no numbers to really be able to do that either), no banner rerolls provided, and no ways to boost their Attack stat (like Khamul's special rule allows or the Witch-King can do if equipped with the Crown of Morgul), these guys can fall to pieces pretty quickly if the horses are killed. Sure, these guys can't be charged to death, but if trapped, they'll go down.
Another limitation to these guys (though not a critique of the army - this is fairly common for most armies) is that the models in this list have 1 Wound and 0-2 Fate (again, up to 3 for the Witch-King). If you've played a few games of MESBG, you've probably found that sometimes all of your Fate points become extra wounds - and sometimes they don't work at all (or require you to spend Might to not die). If you've got 2 Wound models with 1-2 Fate points, no big deal if you get a 3 on a Fate roll (and even less of a big deal if it's a 3 Wound hero with 1-3 Fate points). But when you're a 1 Wound hero, any wound suffered is suddenly a crisis - and since this army gets bonuses for having multiple Ringwraiths within Harbinger range of enemy models, losing a single Ringwraith could mean the difference between a -2 penalty to enemy courage and a -1 penalty to enemy courage (which doesn't always translate into a big reduction, but it certainly can seem that way when you're playing). Having 1 Wound on each of your heroes means there's almost no room for error - and as such, you need to find a balance between engaging on the charge and skirmishing so that you're not overwhelmed.
To balance out these weaknesses, we do have a few strengths. First and foremost, there's probably no better team at assassinating heroes quickly than this Legion. Yes, the Vanquishers and Sauron are pretty good at racking up wounds on people, but with the potential for 8 Black Darts on a single turn, you can see perfectly healthy heroes blown off the map if they don't have proper protection. Black Darts are also one of the few means that this list has of taking out hordes of warriors - sure, on the charge you can kill most units, but if you've got 20 guys running at you, you'll feel a lot better if you've been able to pluck 5-7 of them off the board.
I've said in an article on Black Dart that I recommend casting it with a 70% chance of success - which for these wraiths would be 3 Will points each. While this is a good recommendation for using 1-2 Ringwraiths in your army (where you're unlikely to get very many Black Darts off if you don't throw Will at each attempt), this list usually runs on a very limited Will store so they can get an extra guy on the board. In our list today, I've run 8 Will on each of the generic Ringwraiths and I recommend that instead of casting with 3 Will points, you cast with 2 Will points. With potentially 8 casts/round, each having a 56% chance of success on 2 dice, you should get off ~4 casts each round, which should translate into ~3 wounds each round.
I've heard that 1-die-Black Darts work pretty well for this team - and mathematically, that does make sense (16 Will cast 16 times on a 5+ = ~3.5 wounds/round vs. 16 Will cast 8 times on a 5+ = ~3.0 wounds/round), but psychologically this doesn't FEEL as good. Since they're about the same number of wounds but you do them on one turn instead of two turns, I feel like two-die casts are often the better way to go. If you're facing a normal army, getting ~3 wounds/turn for 2-3 turns with Black Dart before you charge (you can get more if you're willing to Might-up wounding rolls), you can reduce a horde of troops to a shambling band pretty easily - and with the ability to back up 10" each turn with a 12" range on their spells, you can skirmish with cavalry while staying out of their charge range if you're careful.
This hit-and-run strategy with Black Darts can be frustrating for opponents, but it's important to keep in mind that Ringwraiths can only do this for a limited amount of time. The Ringwraith player is naturally hoping that by the time he runs out of steam (aka disposable Will points), enough damage has been done that charging his units is almost impossible. But if there's enough enemy guys hanging on, your wraiths could be in a bit of trouble.
One more thing we need to cover: it's important for any army to keep the objectives in mind - and this is particularly true with hero-heavy or all-hero lists. THIS list REALLY needs to keep the objective in mind. You'll see that as we evaluate the 18 possible scenarios below, but before you get caught up in the excitement of killing off units, always reassess how your actions are helping you win the game. Lose sight of that and everything can go south, even if you kill lots of enemy models.
Game Play Strategy
Maelstrom & Object Missions (Pools 1 & 3)
In Hold Ground, we'll probably be arriving all over the place - and that's fine. Without the ability to be charged on the first turn, you can show up and cast Black Darts when you arrive if you show up second (or if your opponent brings a siege engine), and if you show up first, you can race for the center of the board. Getting to the center first is definitely possible, but if your opponent is racing for the center too, you may want to skirmish your way there (ideally hedging off the enemy to slow them down, but you definitely don't want to be charged by anyone). When your opponent nears breaking, you need to crash the center hard (engaging in melee and calling Heroic Combats to get in some extra kills, if possible) so that if your opponent breaks, the game can't end with none of your units in the center.
In Command the Battlefield, you'll need to manage four scoring areas instead of one scoring area - which is a bit of a problem, but not something that can't be overcome. The advantage that you'll have is that you can use your horses (if you can keep them alive) to have all of your units crash one quadrant early in the game, driving your opponent's forces off it when you arrive. If your opponent just retreats to other quadrants, you can use your 10" move and 12" range to "wag" from one side to the other to wear him down. Since the scenario ends after one side is quartered, you can draw most of his resources onto one side of the board and hope that the enemy models holding far-off objectives run after their side breaks. Sending a single Ringwraith into each quadrant late in the game can help that fleeing along and threaten to deny points to them. Of course, this requires you to make sure these guys stay alive - which will require some skirmishing and hopefully only engaging where you can run over everyone that's near you.
In Heirlooms of Ages Past, you can again show up in multiple places in order to threaten anyone approaching the heirlooms, but like the Serpent Horde list we looked at last time, dismounting to dig up an heirloom is not a good idea - especially since you can't hand it off. Instead, it's better if you can nuke anyone who tries to approach an heirloom location so that they can't dig up the heirloom either. If your opponent gets the Heirloom, he becomes your #1 target (though he can just circle up around the Heirloom to deny you a victory, so you'll eventually need to commit with a charge). If your opponent gets five blanks when trying to find the heirloom, you need to hedge up around the last remaining marker to try to keep it. At that point, if you get there and have time, you might as well dismount and pick it up just so you have some control over it.
In Seize the Prize, you want to get the Prize, but dismounting to pick it up isn't a great plan. As such, you can move towards the prize and use Black Dart to shoot anyone who gets near the Prize, but you actually want your opponent to dig up the Prize for you, then nuke whoever has it, ride in and pick it up, then get onto your opponent's side of the board as quickly as possible. If it looks like you're going to be caught, you can obliterate all of your models except for the Witch-King and whoever is holding the Prize (or one other guy if the Witch-King is holding the Prize) by using all their Will on a Black Dart spell that causes them to die. As mentioned earlier, this is kind of a jerk move, but it's part of your arsenal (and hey, your opponent had his chance at holding the Prize, right?).
In Destroy the Supplies, you just need to touch the enemy supplies in order to destroy them, so if you can get near them, being able to Compel/Transfix models so that they can't tag you can cause those supplies to evaporate quickly. Protecting your own will be mostly tied to stalling your opponent on the way there - Black Darts to pick off models or Compelling models away from their friends so you can pounce on them and run them over. This scenario could be a rough go, but if you can remove all of your opponent's supplies and kill his army leader, you can actually win the game by destroying all the supplies and nuking the enemy army leader. Be careful about doing the "disappearing trick" though - giving up points for breaking you could cause you to lose!
Retrieval is similarly problematic - you need to get your opponent's "flag," but mostly I think your goal is to make sure that he doesn't get yours. Yes, you want to get your opponent's flag if you have the opportunity, but losing your own could happen if you spend too much of your resources trying to punch through his line. As such, use Black Darts to weaken the enemy advance and cause him to be careful with his heroes. If you get a numerical advantage on a turn when you don't have priority, charge in and smash through some of the opposing troops - calling 8 Heroic Combats to rake through the lines, using your other Might to boost rolls to win if you need to. This can allow some of your Ringwraiths to ride wide of the enemy and get around him, threatening his flag. Others can retreat back to your flag to ensure it stays safe. This one is a risky mission, but still doable if you're both careful enough and brash enough to win (yeah, I see the paradox there).
Control Missions (Pools 2 & 5)
Control missions will always be hard for hero-heavy lists due to their limited numbers (in general), but I like the chances of the Ringwraiths in some of these missions. In Domination and Breakthrough, you need to focus on weakening objectives that aren't heavily manned and staying "on the move". If your 8 Ringwraiths can Black Dart 3 models/turn, you can cause whole objectives to become vacant and force your opponent to send troops there to recapture them. If you use Heroic March to keep your army moving quickly, you can race from one objective to another, slowly chipping away at the enemy. If your opponent stays close together (or has 10+ models sitting on an objective, it's not unlikely that you could have your Ringwraiths kill 3 models with Black Darts and then charge in and run over the rest of them if you use Heroic Combats to your advantage. Similarly, if your opponent clumps up on the bare minimum 3 objectives in Domination (or both starting objectives in Breakthrough), you can use your Black Darts to remove his army leader (or severely weaken him) in order to force him to send troops to engage you. The key will be to keep your horses alive - you really need their mobility on this one!
In Command and Control, the job is more difficult - objectives don't need to be held in order to be won, so your opponent can have a mass of troops claim an objective and then leave it to hem you in (or hedge you away from it). Use the weight of your magic and the charge of your cavalry to break through part of your opponent's bulwark, working down his forces to break him. Since this scenario doesn't go to quartering but instead can randomly end, you want to be mindful of how close your opponent is to breaking - ask every round after you start engaging. Knowing when your opponent will be broken is necessary for timing and as such, you need to sweep in when you've weakened an objective and tag it so you can run away again, forcing your opponent to spend resources trying to change it back (which will hopefully make them weak enough for you to tackle and dismantle).
Reconnoitre is one of the simplest games for you - you need to March your riders up and engage your opponent as close to the center line as possible. Against infantry-heavy armies, this shouldn't be a problem - you can walk on 10", then March up 15" and you'll be at the half-way point at the end of Turn 2 (assuming enough of you arrive on Turn 1). Your goal is ultimately to get the Witch-King and one other Ringwraith off the board, using your other Ringwraiths to hold up the enemy and then valiantly delete themselves to quarter yourself (and hopefully bringing down the enemy army leader with them). As I said before, might be a bit of a jerk move, but it's harder to pull off than you think - especially if your opponent has archery. Racing up the side of the board can lead to traps and if the Witch-King's horse goes down, you don't really want him getting caught. Also, if you get more than 2 models off the board, you can't quarter yourself, so you'll have to play the entire game trying to keep 2+ models from getting off your side of the board (which is a hard thing to do with Will being as limited as it is).
Seize the Camp is one of those missions that most armies fear, but not so with you. You COULD just throw everything you have into a Black Dart deletion at the enemy army leader and try to win 3-0, and this game does end when one side has been quartered so it's definitely a viable strategy. But if you haven't broken the enemy army, breaking yourself would lead to a 3-3 draw, not a win. So . . . the only way you can win that way is if you can kill the enemy army leader while having sole control of both your camp and the enemy camp . . . that'll be hard to do with only 2 wraiths on the board. As such, I'd advise against this strategy and play the skirmish game, engaging your enemy as far up on the board as you can, and picking off models until you break him. If you do that, you can then determine whether breaking yourself (1-1 draw) is worth risking wounding/killing the enemy army leader (2-1 win or 4-1 win). If you're trying to get as many victory points as possible, I think this will tank your chances of winning everything in a large tournament, but will still give you the win . . . if you can keep your camp from being taken, that is.
Divide and Conquer is the last of these control-based missions and it'll force you to have two squads of four riders in opposing corners. This isn't a set-back in the least - you'll also have great knowledge of where your opponent is and how his troops are arrayed before you get to placing the Witch-King, so use that to your advantage. As you approach the center objectives, harass the enemy with Black Darts, ensuring that your horses stick around (at least until you get to the center). Once in the center, your goal is to use Black Darts, Compels, or your free channelled Transfixes to keep important models from getting to the center objective (and the two side objectives if you can help it - most models should be suffering a -3 penalty to charge you if you can keep your wraiths alive).
Killing Missions (Pools 4 & 6)
To The Death is . . . not going to be a fun match-up against armies with shooting and magic. Frankly, because your opponent doesn't have to come to you (no objectives or objects driving him to be anywhere), an army with any amount of shooting will keep their heroes back (maybe inset in their lines) and have bows and magical missiles ready to pound your riders as they get close. Managing your approach and skirmishing as best you can is your best hope - though against Forces of Good armies, you might be able to sail in and decimate a bunch with a Heroic Combat if you're lucky. This scenario rewards your opponent heavily for breaking you, so I would check the VP count three or four times before deleting your Ringwraiths with Black Darts - if you and your opponent are both broken, you'll give him +2 VPs for quartering you and if he has a banner, it doesn't matter if you've killed his army leader or not (who is worth +3 VPs to you). If you've already broken the enemy, you could end the game with a 6-5 win, but it seems REALLY chancy to me.
Clash by Moonlight is similarly complicated, as breaking the enemy without being broken is worth almost half the points (5 VPs) and killing more heroes is worth almost half the points (5 VPs) - so I REALLY wouldn't delete yourself on this one. Keeping those horses alive will be almost impossible here, as enemy archery gets +1 To Wound at the same range as you cast spells at, so you'll need to try to dance into range and then get out again without leaving yourself as a target. I don't like your chances on this one if your opponent has archery - I really don't. Do your best, kill heroes before warriors, charge in fast, try not to die.
Lords of Battle, on the other hand, is pretty great for you - you have a maximum of 8 wounds and 9 Fate points up for grabs, so if you can get 18 wounds/Fate out of the way, you have a good shot at winning. Of course, it's far better for you to try to get more than that - and hope the game ends before you run out of all 17 of your survival resources. Getting kills with Black Darts and then sailing in on the charge with Heroic Combats to keep you moving can be really powerful in this scenario and I'd expect the game to be over pretty quickly regardless of who you're fighting (either because you racked up kills quickly or because you got torn apart). Remember the Might restoration on this one - if you can get a kill on a hero, take it (with those free channelled Transfixes where possible)!
In Contest of Champions, is similarly a good draw for you, as you have a maximum of 6-8 models that your opponent can score with his army leader and so you just need to beat him to that number to win (pretty much). You'll need to make sure some of your Ringwraiths are held in reserve to Transfix the enemy army leader on the first turn because if your opponent can charge you, he certainly will. You can use Ringwraiths to screen the Witch-King, but frankly I think he'll be okay if you can just Transfix whoever he's fighting (though if he's swarmed by warriors, that may not be a great idea). All the same, deploy him late, see what your opponent is doing, and then make the call. As much as possible, the Witch-King needs to be focused on killing warriors - everyone else should be focused on channelled Transfixing the enemy army leader while you weaken his bodyguards. You could also try to Black Dart him to death, sure, but I think you want to try that once you've gotten the Witch-King out of danger.
Assassination is a tricky one for you - on the one hand, you can probably kill any non-army-leader hero that you want, but on the other hand, your non-army-leader heroes are particularly vulnerable to getting sniped. Not knowing which of your 7 Ringwraiths is the target could lead you to being extra cautious with all of them, so just make sure enemy heroes are screened from your wraiths as best you can. If all of the enemy non-army-leader heroes are dead before any of your guys die (ideally with the assassin Ringwraith dealing the final blow to whoever your target is), the best your opponent can get is 5 VPs for killing one of your guys. It's by no means a guaranteed victory if any of your Ringwraiths fall, but you have a pretty good shot at this one, I think.
Fog of War is similarly complicated, as any of your Ringwraiths could be the target to kill. You need to pick one to protect - he should always be in reserves, supporting with magic early in the game and then retreating to hide late in the game. Pick a piece of terrain that isn't difficult terrain if possible, then screen your opponent off from it. Pick a hero that needs to be in the action and that you can Black Dart to death, then focus on keeping your hero alive and defending your terrain piece. You COULD kill off five of your Ringwraiths by deleting them with Black Darts, but you run the risk of the game lasting for a while with only 3 Ringwraiths (and if you haven't broken your opponent, it's a BIG gamble).
Conclusion
This Legion is controversial and can be incredibly unfun to fight. Some armies won't mind, other armies will mind very much. Regardless of the setting, this is an army that requires a great deal of skill to use well and so I like it.
In our next post, we'll be sticking with the Legendary Legion section of the book and look at a Mordor army that lots of people were excited about when the Quest of the Ringbearer book came out: Cirith Ungol. This Legion runs a mix of Orcs and Uruk-Hai (much like the Ugluk's Scouts LL that we viewed recently), but lest you think the strategy is copy/paste from there, you'd be wrong. This army is built similarly but behaves VERY differently - come find out how next time. Until then, happy hobbying!
Great post as always - I'm with you on the 8 v. 9 ringwraiths, as I think you'll get better mileage out of eight than you will with the nine. Plus it gives you something more to scale up to at higher points levels.
ReplyDeleteI'm also not sure that the one-die cast for Black Dart is a good idea, as, yes, it probably on average rolls more dice to wound in a given round, but each time you cast the spell it's a potential Might drain, and I think you're a lot safer if you roll two dice instead. It then comes down to having better target selection so that you hit the targets that need to be hit with the spell and then run over everyone else.
I like 2-dice casts as well (I did that against your Ents recently), but it's the difference between 3.5 casts/wraith and 7. Against armies with few Wounds (elite conventional armies, hero-heavy lists, monster mashes), the reliability is better because the total number of wounds required is lower. Against spam lists, getting 1-2 darts successfully cast per Ringwraith is just not enough. With one dice casts, you get 2-3 successfully cast, which doesn't seem like much of an improvement, but could mean 10 models you don't have to kill in melee.
DeleteGreat article as ever. I agree with pretty much everything in it, but I do have some quibbles.
ReplyDeleteFirstly (and predictably) I disagree with the extra Will over Fate. Obviously extra Will is good, but if you spend it on Black Darts it's an average of less than two enemy models dead, at best. Assuming that you use at least a couple of those extra Fate points (and in my experience, you really will), that's one or more Ringwraiths saved. In almost every matchup you're going to be outnumbered more than 2:1, so I think conserving your 85-point models is more important than killing an extra two enemies. To be sure, you might never use more than one or two of those extra Fate, but you've probably won if that's the case anyway. And you certainly might not use that extra Will point if you lose a Wraith early because it fails its first Fate roll and dies. That's my view at least, but I admit maybe I'm just a coward about Fate and need to trust my dice more.
As far as scenarios go, I think I disagree with your conclusions on some of them.
Seize the Prize is the big one, as I think you're neglecting how incredibly powerful the ability to dig up the prize turn one is. Yes, you don't want to dismount (it's basically a death-sentence for the Wraith that does so) but if you get that prize on turn one that's almost certainly game. You can form a little perimeter around the guy who picks it up, hand it off to someone else in your next turn and the game is basically won already. It's still not a bad scenario for you if you don't dismount to get the prize, or if your opponent gets it first, but I think giving up an excellent chance to win the game on the first turn is a big mistake.
Clash by Moonlight is also a much better matchup than you're thinking. Because your opponent can't shoot from outside of 12" (while you can dart in, Dart, and dart out), you can basically just kite them till they Break. Even without any extra Will, at 700 you should average about 20 kills by burning almost all your Will and Might on 1 die Black Darts (you've got the time to do 1-die attempts in this scenario. 20 kills will Break most lists, then it's game over. Sure, it's hard to engage them in close combat without getting pincushioned, but I can see no reason why a Black Rider player would ever need to (except maybe time pressure in a tournament I guess).
Assassination is also much easier than you think. All you need to do is kill your target with the Assassin while also taking out their leader, and then you can just have everyone except the Witch King disappear (or run and hide if that feels more honourable). That gives you a minimum of a 1-point victory, which isn't amazing but is still pretty solid. If you're playing with a time limit then it's honestly pretty easy to just kill the two heroes you need to kill and run and hide, giving you a likely 10:0 victory.
Otherwise, I basically agree with your assessment of all the other scenarios. Contest is maybe a little easier than you're thinking (as long as the WK doesn't die and your opponent's leader does it's effectively impossible to lose, so just keep him safe turn one and you've achieved victory already), but that's a minor quibble.
Great article as ever, I'm looking forward to Cirith Ungol!
For more info on this, check out Sharbie's blog. :-)
DeleteThe Fate vs. Will thing is fair, but it's important to note that this is an opportunity cost thing. Fate is good when it works - paying for Fate gives you the potential to not die, but can give you a false sense of security because you won't always pass Fate rolls (as my Galadriels frequently remind me). By taking less Fate and more Will, you could get sniped, but you could also pay closer attention to cover, cast more spells, and give yourself more options late in the game. Losing even a single Will point from each wraith can change when you have to engage - and once your skirmishing tricks are over, it's either hide or charge.
With the Vanquishers in mind, having extra Fate might be valuable, but so might extra Will - haven't wrapped my head around it yet, but once again, resisting magic with Will may be a better long-term deterrent than counting on a Fate save. Gotta play test I guess.