Is Heroic Strike Good? (Part V: A Case Study in Miniature)

Photo Credit: Dork Lords

This is the second-part of our mathematical write-up on Heroic Strike itself (cut for length because Blogger didn't like the full feature in a single post--boo!). If you missed the first part, you can find it here. To summarize, we looked at the basic components of Heroic Strike. Here are the high points:

• Heroic Strike, like fight value boosts in general, only improve our odds to win drawn combats, and only drawn combats;
• The Strike itself has a lot of variance, since it hinges on a single, unmodifiable D6;
• That variance can be reduced somewhat by the overall Fight Value cap of "10," and can also be reduced by having higher Fight Value to start with; and
• Even though Heroic Strike only impacts the six drawn combat outcomes (of thirty-six total combat outcomes), those scenarios are among the most probable outcomes once we start rolling two or more duel dice, and only become more probable the more dice we add to the duel rolls.

Now, to synthesize all of this, let's take a look at a practical case study between two opponents who share almost identical stat profiles, except for their Attacks. How might calling Heroic Strike (or not calling it) impact their odds to win the fight? And are there other considerations, beyond the mere probabilities of winning and losing, that caution for (or against) spending Might to Strike?

(Maths ahead, as the rubber hits the road.)

Top 10 Wraiths, Revisited

And after a VERY long move and get-the-old-place-ready-for-renters kind of month, WE'RE ALIVE!!!!!!!!!

And naturally, once we're back to being alive, we blog about our hobbies. :)

A while back, we did a post on the "top 10 Ringwraiths," with the emphasis being on an all-Ringwraith team (because that's what we were taking to THRO that year). Today, we're going to do that again, but consider how these guys have changed under the new rules. We'll also be expanding our horizons to discuss each Ringwraith in the context of their more traditional usage: as one of several heroes leading lots of warriors. I will note that even in an all-hero army of Ringwraiths (like we did a while back), the order wouldn't change much in my opinion. So gather up your blackest robes, prepare that screech you've been working on, prepare your dark steed, and let's get to it!

Is Heroic Strike good? (Part III: Dueling with Shields, Banners, and Mounts)

We're almost ready to analyze the merits of Heroic Strike, but before we get there, we have a few more pieces of wargear to sort out: shields, banners, and mounts. As a reminder, here's what we've discovered so far (in relation to small troop combats: 1-on-1, 2-on-1, and 2-on-2):

• RULE #1: In an even duel, both sides have an even chance of winning.
• RULE #2: Having higher fight value than our opponent helps us win the fight, but only if we have a drawn combat. 
• RULE #3: Adding more dice (on its own) is more likely to help us win fights than improved Fight Value (on its own).
• RULE #4: Flailing reduces our odds of winning the fight, unless we already have a lower fight value than our opponent.
• RULE #5: Feinting reduces our odds of winning the fight, unless we have a fight value that is 3+ more than our opponent's fight value. 
• RULE #6: The -1 duel roll penalty from two-handed weapons dramatically reduces our chances of winning the fight, regardless of our fight value. 

Let's start with shields.

(Bring on the maths…)

Is Heroic Strike good? (Part II: Dueling with Whirl, Feint, and Two-Handed Weapons)

Photo Credit: modthesims.info

It's been a while, but now that the TMAT grand tournament is over, there's finally some time to write! Last time, we looked at the basic mathematical anatomy of a duel, and the three general rules that govern the probability of winning (for the moment, at least) small duels (1 v. 1, 2 v. 1, and 2 v. 2). Here's a brief recap:

RULE #1
In an even duel, both sides have an even chance of winning.

RULE #2
Having higher fight value than our opponent helps us win the fight, but only if we have a drawn combat.

RULE #3

Adding more dice (on its own) is more likely to help us win fights than improved Fight Value (on its own).

In this section, we'll add to these basic rules by looking at weapon choices. This has obvious ramifications in the list-building stage, but also plays an important role in battlefield decisions, such as when to use a piece of war gear (one-handed vs. two-handed), and whether to declare a special strike (whirl, anyone?).

On to the graphs!

Dunlendings: Any Good?

Good morning gamers,

As we get ready for the TMAT GT this weekend, I've been thinking a lot about the army I didn't take to the tournament. :P While I love my Wood Elves (and I have never taken them to a GT before), my thoughts drift constantly to Isengard. In particular, to some of the unloved children in their army list: Dunlendings and Wild Men. While some very competitive gamers don't see the point in taking either of these guys (and some people on this blog agree as well), I've grown to like the Dunlendings (and to a lesser extent, Wild Men). To make them work, however, there are a few things you'll want to consider.