Is Heroic Strike good? (Part II: Dueling with Whirl, Feint, and Two-Handed Weapons)

Photo Credit: modthesims.info

It's been a while, but now that the TMAT grand tournament is over, there's finally some time to write! Last time, we looked at the basic mathematical anatomy of a duel, and the three general rules that govern the probability of winning (for the moment, at least) small duels (1 v. 1, 2 v. 1, and 2 v. 2). Here's a brief recap:

RULE #1
In an even duel, both sides have an even chance of winning.

RULE #2
Having higher fight value than our opponent helps us win the fight, but only if we have a drawn combat.

RULE #3

Adding more dice (on its own) is more likely to help us win fights than improved Fight Value (on its own).

In this section, we'll add to these basic rules by looking at weapon choices. This has obvious ramifications in the list-building stage, but also plays an important role in battlefield decisions, such as when to use a piece of war gear (one-handed vs. two-handed), and whether to declare a special strike (whirl, anyone?).

On to the graphs!

Weapon choices: Whirl, Feint, and Two-Handing

Before we delve into special strikes, it's worth noting that there are excellent discussions of the pre-MESBG versions of the special strikes in both podcast form (courtesy of The Green Dragon Podcast) and video form (courtesy of the Great British Hobbit League), although bear in mind that there have been some significant revisions in the new rule book that Tiberius discussed in his in-depth look at special strikes (STF Wargaming also released a video summary of what's changed, and the Green Dragon has a long-form podcast discussion of all the rules changes which is well worth listening to, particularly if you have a lengthy painting project on your table). 

There are three weapon types that can negatively impact our duel roll: feinting blades (swords and daggers), whirling weapons (flails, scourges, and whips), and two-handed weapons (of multiple varieties, though it's possible they may also feint or whirl which could pose special problems for us). Feint and Whirl weapons directly impact our fight value (downwards) while two-handed weapons (usually) apply a -1 modifier to any dice the model rolled to win the duel (in exchange for a +1 modifier to-wound if they win the duel).

WHIRL

Let's get the obvious one out of the way: when it comes to winning a duel, flails are bad--like, really bad--because your Fight Value goes down to "1" (Rules p. 87) Not by "1," to "1." This means the best case scenario is that Whirl doesn't impact your duel odds at all, because your fight value was already worse than your opponent's. This is fine for goblins or hobbits (which are FV2 as-is, or worse), but not great for pretty much anyone else unless you happen to find yourself outmatched in fight value anyway (in which case, flail away!), or you happen to have a spear-supporting model helping you out (in which case you use his FV instead of yours, so flail away!).

RULE #4:

Flailing reduces our odds of winning the fight, unless we already have a lower fight value than our opponent.

What does that mean in conceptual terms? Well, remember that basic win chart we had when our poor WOMT was trying to slay a poor Easterling?

x1 Warrior of Minas Tirith (F3, S3, D6)

vs.

x1 Easterling Warrior (F3, S3, D6)

	Easterling “1”	Easterling “2”	Easterling “3”	Easterling “4”	Easterling “5”	Easterling “6”
WOMT “1”	DRAWN	Easterling	Easterling	Easterling	Easterling	Easterling
WOMT “2”	WOMT	DRAWN	Easterling	Easterling	Easterling	Easterling
WOMT “3”	WOMT	WOMT	DRAWN	Easterling	Easterling	Easterling
WOMT “4”	WOMT	WOMT	WOMT	DRAWN	Easterling	Easterling
WOMT “5”	WOMT	WOMT	WOMT	WOMT	DRAWN	Easterling
WOMT “6”	WOMT	WOMT	WOMT	WOMT	WOMT	DRAWN

Well, if our WOMT could whirl (which he can if we spend a point to give him a flail!) and chose to do so (which he could if we spent a point to give him a flail!), here's what the revised chart would look like:

x1 Warrior of Minas Tirith (F1, S3, D6, Whirl)

vs.

x1 Easterling Warrior (F3, S3, D6)

	Easterling “1”	Easterling “2”	Easterling “3”	Easterling “4”	Easterling “5”	Easterling “6”
WOMT “1”	Easterling	Easterling	Easterling	Easterling	Easterling	Easterling
WOMT “2”	WOMT	Easterling	Easterling	Easterling	Easterling	Easterling
WOMT “3”	WOMT	WOMT	Easterling	Easterling	Easterling	Easterling
WOMT “4”	WOMT	WOMT	WOMT	Easterling	Easterling	Easterling
WOMT “5”	WOMT	WOMT	WOMT	WOMT	Easterling	Easterling
WOMT “6”	WOMT	WOMT	WOMT	WOMT	WOMT	Easterling

Nothing has changed as far as the probability to get the higher roll, but now all the formerly drawn-combats are going to the Easterling, because he has the higher fight value (FV3 vs. FV1). The result is a 21/36 advantage for the Easterling, because he now has the higher fight.

The problem becomes exacerbated when we have bigger dice pools. To illustrate this, here's a Witch King with the Crown of Morgul using his sword in hand-to-hand combat with a generic Rohan Royal Guard on foot:

x1 Witch-King (FV5, S4, D8, 3 attacks)

vs. 

x1 Rohan Royal Guard (FV4, S3, D6, 1 attack)

	Duel Win %	Kill %	Death %
Good	17.36%	1.45%	58.15%
Evil	82.64%	58.15%	1.45%

The Witch-King has a very reliable 80% chance of winning the duel and a nearly 60% chance of wounding (he has higher fight and more attacks, after all), while the Royal Guard has less than a 2% chance of wounding. These are, what we call, very good odds.

What if the Witch-King whirls his flail instead?

x1 Witch-King (FV1, S4, D8, 3 attacks, Whirl)

vs. 

x1 Rohan Royal Guard (FV4, S3, D6, 1 attack)

	Duel Win %	Kill %	Death %
Good	34.03%	2.84%	46.42%
Evil	65.97%	46.42%	2.84%

Ouch. The Witch King is still winning the duel most of the time (he does have three dice to one, and three dice have a higher chance of rolling at least one "6" than a single die does), and the Royal Guard still isn't likely to wound him, but now any ties are going to the Royal Guard (who has FV4 to the Witch-King's FV1), giving the Guard the victory in 1-of-3 fights. Now let's pretend the Royal Guard is a Captain of Rohan with shield (so he has two attacks, not just one). The Witch-King goes from winning the fight handily...

x1 Witch-King (FV5, S4, D8, 3 attacks)

vs. 

x1 Rohan Captain (FV4, S4, D6, 2 attacks) 

	Duel Win %	Kill %	Death %
Good	28.07%	8.58%	50.61%
Evil	71.93%	50.61%	8.58%

… to losing it close:

x1 Witch-King (FV1, S4, D8, 3 attacks, Whirl)

vs. 

x1 Rohan Captain (FV4, S4, D6, 2 attacks)

	Duel Win %	Kill %	Death %
Good	52.84%	8.44%	33.19%
Evil	47.16%	33.19%	8.44%

Disaster! And that's assuming it's just a random Captain of Rohan standing around, and there's no supporting spearman nearby (which there wouldn't be in a Rohan army) or additional Rohan infantry also engaged with the Witch-King (which there probably are, if the Witch-King is bothering to whirl):

x1 Witch-King (FV1, S4, D8, 3 attacks, Whirl)

vs. 

x1 Rohan Captain (FV4, S4, D6, 2 attacks)

x2 Rohan Royal Guard (FV4, S3, D6, 2 attacks combined)

	Duel Win %	Kill %	Death %
Good	72.92%	35.85%	19.05%
Evil	27.08%	19.05%	35.85%

Compare that with the non-whirl version...

x1 Witch-King (FV5, S4, D8, 3 attacks)

vs. 

x1 Rohan Captain (FV4, S4, D6, 2 attacks)

x2 Rohan Royal Guard (FV4, S3, D6, 2 attacks combined)

	Duel Win %	Kill %	Death %
Good	40.28%	19.80%	42.03%
Evil	59.72%	42.03%	19.80%

… and the negative impact of Whirl is pretty apparent. Without whirling, the Witch King still has a 60% chance of winning, even though his opponent has four dice in the fight to his three, due to his higher fight value. Lose that, and the Witch-King drops to just a 27% chance of winning, because his dice are now outnumbered and he is losing ties. Not good.

Now it's worth mentioning of course that if the Witch-King does win with Whirl, he gets a benefit when we get to step #7 of the fight--making strikes--he gets a benefit, although in this particular case not a sizeable one (he gets a single Strike against each opponent he is engaged with, which in this fight is everyone but wouldn't include spear or pike supports). For a model with just one attack it's a definite benefit if there are more than two models engaged in the fight, but for a model like the Witch-King (who has three attacks base), it's a waste, as he could allocate one of his three strikes to each of the models in the combat anyway, while having a much higher chance of doing so (60% to 27%).

Finally, it's worth mentioning that we can counter-act the negative impact of Whirl if we have another model in the fight who has a higher fight value than our opponent (such as a spear support, or another Nazgul, although in this particular example that would split the fight). But generally speaking, the rule for flailing when it comes to duels is to avoid them in any duel where fight value is equal to start with.

FEINT

Feint, which drops our FV by "d3" (by, not to this time), acts essentially the same way as a whirl if we have tied fight value with our opponent (we go from a tie to having less fight value, and there is no functional difference between having less fight value than our opponent and having FV1), and probably the same as whirl if our fight value is just one higher than our opponent's (as the Witch King's is here), because we have a 66% chance on a d3 that our Fight will drop by at least 2. In exchange, we another benefit to wound if we win the fight. Here's how the Witch King fares with a feint instead of a whirl:

x1 Witch-King (FV5, S4, D8, 3 attacks)
vs.
x1 Rohan Captain (FV4, S4, D6, 2 attacks)
x2 Rohan Royal Guard (FV4, S3, D6, 2 attacks combined)

	Duel Win %	Kill %	Death %
Good	40.28%	19.80%	42.03%
Evil	59.72%	42.03%	19.80%

x1 Witch-King (FV5, S4, D8, 3 attacks, Feint)
vs. 
x1 Rohan Captain (FV4, S4, D6, 2 attacks)
x2 Rohan Royal Guard (FV4, S3, D6, 2 attacks combined)

	Duel Win %	Kill %	Death %
Good	67.48%	33.18%	25.10%
Evil	32.52%	25.10%	33.18%

The drop is not quite as dramatic as when Whirling, because there's still a chance (a 33% chance) that the Witch-King's fight value will only drop one, from 5 to 4, which would allow at least a roll-off on ties. But he's still giving up a substantial chance to win the duel (-27.2 percentage points) for what ends up being a reduced probability to kill, too (42.03% drops to 25.10%, or -16.93 percentage points) and an increased chance of dying (19.80% to 33.18%, or +13.38 percentage points) just to add insult to injury.

RULE #5:
Feinting reduces our odds of winning the fight, unless we have a fight value that is 3+ more than our opponent's fight value.

There are times and situations where feinting makes sense. But not when you'll lose the fight value advantage. Not when you're outnumbered. And definitely not when you'll lose the fight value advantage and are outnumbered. But it's definitely better than flailing (poor flailing).

(Alternatively, you can stab at your peril.)

But wait! It can get even worse for the flails! Because the Witch-King's flail is also a two-handed flail! (That is a lot of exclamations!) Cue the epic music!









(wait for it...)

TWO-HANDED WEAPONS

Like flailing and feinting, two-handed weapons are usually bad for winning duels, because any dice a two-handing model rolls to win the duel are reduced by "1" (it is by "1" this time, so 6s become 5s, 5s become 4s, etc.) (Rules p. 83). Except unlike flails, there is no "best-case" outcome when using a two-handed weapon, because our dice rolls are always going to be reduced by "1" (okay, okay, if we roll a "1" to win the fight, technically there's nothing worse than that, but really? That's the silver-lining?)

What does that mean in conceptual terms? Back to our WOMT vs. Easterling (because of course they're still duking it out--S3 on D6 is a grind fest):

x1 Warrior of Minas Tirith (F3, S3, D6)
vs.
x1 Easterling Warrior (F3, S3, D6)

	Easterling “1”	Easterling “2”	Easterling “3”	Easterling “4”	Easterling “5”	Easterling “6”
WOMT “1”	DRAWN	Easterling	Easterling	Easterling	Easterling	Easterling
WOMT “2”	WOMT	DRAWN	Easterling	Easterling	Easterling	Easterling
WOMT “3”	WOMT	WOMT	DRAWN	Easterling	Easterling	Easterling
WOMT “4”	WOMT	WOMT	WOMT	DRAWN	Easterling	Easterling
WOMT “5”	WOMT	WOMT	WOMT	WOMT	DRAWN	Easterling
WOMT “6”	WOMT	WOMT	WOMT	WOMT	WOMT	DRAWN

Well, if our WOMT could two-hand (which he can't, but indulge me) and chose to do so (which he can't; again, indulge me), here's the revised chart:

	Easterling “1”	Easterling “2”	Easterling “3”	Easterling “4”	Easterling “5”	Easterling “6”
WOMT “1” (Stays “1”)	Easterling	Easterling	Easterling	Easterling	Easterling	Easterling
WOMT “2” (à “1”)	DRAWN	Easterling	Easterling	Easterling	Easterling	Easterling
WOMT “3” (à “2”)	WOMT	DRAWN	Easterling	Easterling	Easterling	Easterling
WOMT “4” (à “3”)	WOMT	WOMT	DRAWN	Easterling	Easterling	Easterling
WOMT “5” (à “4”)	WOMT	WOMT	WOMT	DRAWN	Easterling	Easterling
WOMT “6” (à “5”)	WOMT	WOMT	WOMT	WOMT	DRAWN	Easterling

So... this is abominable. Our brave (and probably overly-reckless) WOMT now wins the fight outright in just 10 of 36 scenarios (down from 15), or just over one quarter of the time (27.78%). He's also splitting draws with the Easterling still (3/36) for a total of 13/36 likely wins (36.11%) to the Easterling's 23/36 (63.89%). And our Witch-King, whirling with his two-handed Flail? He goes from this:

x1 Witch-King (FV5, S4, D8, 3 attacks)
vs. 
x1 Rohan Captain (FV4, S4, D6, 2 attacks)
x2 Rohan Royal Guard (FV4, S3, D6, 2 attacks combined)

	Duel Win %	Kill %	Death %
Good	40.28%	19.80%	42.03%
Evil	59.72%	42.03%	19.80%

To this:

x1 Witch-King (FV1, S4, D8, 3 attacks, Two-Handed Whirl)
vs. 
x1 Rohan Captain (FV4, S4, D6, 2 attacks)
x2 Rohan Royal Guard (FV4, S3, D6, 2 attacks combined)

	Duel Win %	Kill %	Death %
Good	89.69%	44.10%	9.02%
Evil	10.31%	9.02%	44.10%

Don't... just, don't...

There's an additional danger associated with two-handed weapons that's worth talking about, too. While a model can spear-support a friendly model who is fighting two-handed, the -1 penalty to our duel roll from two-handed weapons is a lot harder to mitigate just by adding extra dice. Unlike Feint and Whirl (where we can effectively ignore the special strike penalty if we get another model in the same fight or supporting with equal or higher fight value), a two-handing model's die still suffers the -1 penalty even if supported (although the supporting model suffers no penalty). So while a whirling Witch-King could resurrect his chances of winning the fight if support by, say, a Serpent Guard with spear...

x1 Witch-King (FV1, S4, D8, 3 attacks, Whirl)

x1 Serpent Guard (FV4, S3, D4, 1 attack)

vs. 

x1 Rohan Captain (FV4, S4, D6, 2 attacks)

x2 Rohan Royal Guard (FV4, S3, D6, 2 attacks combined)

	Duel Win %	Kill %	Death %
Good	50.00%	20.82%	37.65%
Evil	50.00%	37.65%	20.82%

... the two-handed Flailing Witch-King never regains control of the fight:

x1 Witch-King (FV1, S4, D8, 3 attacks, two-handed Whirl)

x1 Serpent Guard (FV4, S3, D4, 1 attack)

vs. 

x1 Rohan Captain (FV4, S4, D6, 2 attacks)

x2 Rohan Royal Guard (FV4, S3, D6, 2 attacks combined)

	Duel Win %	Kill %	Death %
Good	68.92%	28.71%	27.84%
Evil	31.08%	27.84%	28.71%

The bottom-line:

RULE #6:

The -1 duel roll penalty from two-handed weapons dramatically reduces our chances of winning the fight, regardless of our fight value. 

That's the end of our discussion of special strikes and how they impact our odds of winning the duel. Next time, we'll wrap up our discussion of the remaining wargear items that can improve our duel chances: shields, banners, and mounts.

Photo Credit: whatthefaux.net