Good morning gamers,
Today we cover one of the most competitive armies for the Forces of Good in MESBG right now: the Army of Lake-town. If you're looking at running a list pure, this army . . . well, doesn't look very good. In fact, compared to their cousins (the Survivors of Lake-town, which we'll cover in a few weeks), it looks downright awful. But this army is one of the cheapest hordes that have access to spears you can find and this means you can get a healthy amount of numbers and have plenty of points to ally in big heroes. Lake-town doesn't have the suite of allies that you'll find from the Armies of the Lord of the Rings, but the options they have are solid. So how do we begin to piece together a good army from Lake-town? Let's dig in and see what we have to work with and you'll soon see.
The Army of Lake-town: Who Needs A Horde?
So when you think of horde armies, you generally think of evil factions - Goblin-town, Moria, and Sharkey's Rogues, for example. Some good factions qualify - like the Shire - but most good factions run average-cost models (or very elite/expensive models), which can keep them from "hording out" (though there are builds for Minas Tirith that can horde out by taking cheap heroes). Lake-town has only one expensive hero (Bard) and everyone else costs no more than 50 points - and with most of them (not Bard's children) able to lead 12-15 models and your warrior models costing 5-7 points each, you can get a full warband of guys for under 120 points. If you're getting that many guys for that kind of cost, you can easily get 65+ models in a 600pt game (and at 700, you're looking at over 70 models easily).
While hording out like this probably works, the Lake-town army list has a very light bench - you have one beater hero (Bard), two daughters to make him punchier, one son who becomes half-way decent near his sisters/dad, a cheap banner-FV-buff hero, a get-more-Might guy, a captain-who-can-march-or- defense-potentially-for-free, generic captains who can't take extra gear, and one warrior choice that can get bows and/or spears. And that's it. While you can certainly buy these models and fill their warbands, you're lacking a lot of the basics that we look for in this series:
- You have no actual fast troops, though you will have plenty of March from Braga/Lake-town Guard Captains;
- You have no actual banners, though the Master counts as a banner if he has Might to spend; and
- You have very few ways to neutralize enemy heroes besides shooting them and feeding them.
Because Lake-town has basically no depth chart, most Lake-town players don't just horde out with Lake-town - they ally other factions into an army and retain a lot of the Lake-town horde. Considering that you can get the Master of Lake-town, Alfrid the Councilor, and Braga, Captain of the Guard and bring along 36 warriors (18 vanilla, 6 spears, 12 spears and bows) for 330pts, you have plenty of space for whatever you wish to ally no matter what points level you're playing.
Your only historical ally is Thorin's Company - and they benefit a LOT from a horde (and certainly one that can have spearmen count as being in range of a 12" banner when the Master spends a Might point). Convenient allies for this list include Erebor Reclaimed/the Iron Hills (no idea why, but both are historical allies with the Survivors of Lake-town who are probably a better fit), Fangorn (because Ents like hordes screening for them), all three Elven factions (who don't mind augmented numbers - and all of them can do without their army bonuses), the Misty Mountains/Radagast's Alliance (who, like Fangorn, like having models to screen for them), and the White Council (who, like Fangorn, likes having models to screen for them). ANY of these factions will provide hitting power that you lack in Lake-town - and all of them can provide the same/better hitting power from a model at/below the cost of Bard (especially if he's got his horse and daughters in tow), so bringing an allied hero or two into your list is pretty easy.
Of all these factions, only the Dwarves/Elves can get fast troops (Goat Riders or Elven Knights of various stripes) and actual banners, so we'll be looking at a pairing between an Elven faction in this post for our main discussion - as was mentioned before, both the Iron Hills and Erebor Reclaimed get a better alliance out of the Survivors of Lake-town than the Army of Lake-town, so we'll ignore them for now. Know that most of these get some coverage at the end, so if your preferred build isn't addressed in our main bit, look for it later. I will direct you now to Rythbyrt's list that he ran at our TMAT 2021 Grand Tournament, which was a melding of not one, not two, not three, but FOUR factions at 750pts (heck, it was four factions at 600pts and three factions at 450pts). In the interest of not being boring, I've avoided that list for the main discussion today, but have no fear, a version of it will be at the end - it's a good list and basically everyone on the interwebs agrees.
The List
- The Master of Lake-town
- 5 Lake-town Guard
- 5 Lake-town Guard with spears and bows
- Alfrid the Councilor
- 4 Lake-town Guard
- 4 Lake-town Guard with spears and bows
- Braga, Captain of the Guard
- 5 Lake-town Guard
- 5 Lake-town Guard with spears
- 1 Lake-town Guard with spear and bow
- CONVENIENT ALLY - The White Council: Galadriel, Lady of Light [ARMY LEADER]
- CONVENIENT ALLY - The Halls of Thranduil: *Legolas Greenleaf, Prince of Mirkwood on horse with Orcrist
- 3 Mirkwood Cavalry with shields
- 5 Mirkwood Elves with shields
- 2 Mirkwood Elves with Elven Glaives and Elf bows
- 1 Mirkwood Elf with Elven Glaive, Elf bow, and banner
The purchases required to get these units are as follows:
- You'll need the Master of Lake-town and Alfrid - let's be honest, if you're running Lake-town you knew you needed these guys anyway;
- You will also need 30 Lake-town Guard (one to convert into Braga), which requires not one, not two, but THREE boxes of Lake-town Guard;
- Galadriel, Lady of Light (who is now available again in the store);
- You'll need Legolas (who comes with Tauriel, who is also a good hero, but I couldn't fit her into the list without dropping Galadriel);
- You'll need a box of Mirkwood Elves (and a spare shield, which you can get easily from the Palace Guard pack); and
- You'll need not one but two blisters of Mirkwood Cavalry (who don't come with shields, so again I recommend the Palace Guard pack - or green stuff your own).
Warband #1: The Master
With three Heroes of Valor in this list and no Heroes of Legend, the Master could be your army leader - but because I don't expect him to have much Might lying around, I'm not sure protecting him is very feasible (and I don't see him killing much). His purpose in the army, though, is simple: grant a 6" banner and +1FV to nearby Lake-town models at the cost of 1 Might point each turn. Protecting him is a simple shooting squad of troops (10-man block), able to lay down archery if required to drive enemies to find cover and provide a stout support around the Master.
Warband #2: Lackey #1
Not far from the Master should be Alfrid, as the Master would love to have some Might from the guy. Alfrid's Dubious Council rule allows him to spend as much Will as he wants from his store to roll a D6 - and on a 2+, he grants a targeted friendly hero with +1 Might (which is awesome). If he gets a 1, however, he takes 1 Might from that hero (which is not awesome). Depending on what you're facing, Alfrid might want to hold onto his Will points at the start of the game, waiting for the Master to run out of Might before attempting to turn Alfrid's Will into Might. If you're facing a model with Sap Will, though, you definitely want to ditch the Will early from Alfrid, no matter what you roll. Protecting him is a token squad of 8 troops - nothing to write home about, but plenty big for what he does. Another model that wouldn't mind more Might from Alfrid is . . .
Warband #3: Lackey #2
Braga, Captain of the Guard, is a very cheap Hero of Fortitude who has Heroic Defense (useful in staying alive), Heroic March (for getting places fast), and 3 Might points (which has huge benefits). If he's within 6" of the master, he not only benefits from the banner/Fight Value buff that the Master can give, but he also rolls a D6 when he calls a heroic action - on a 4+, he calls it for free (so that would be free Heroic Moves/Marches/Defenses/Combats potentially from Braga). With 3 Might, even if you don't get the 4+, you can still pull these maneuvers off a lot during a game. If he runs afoul of bad random rolls, you can always use Alfrid to bolster his reserves (especially if he's run out). Attending Braga are 9 Lake-town Guard, which can fit around him in a 5-man shieldwall (without shields, of course) - not a terrifying horde, but again, it's plenty big.
Warband #4: The Protector
Galadriel, Lady of Light is a very valuable tool at high points levels - she grants you improved protection from archery with her Light of Earendil rule (which is really good because your Defense is pretty low), she provides the ability to resist magic well with Fortify Spirit (which she can channel too if you're worried), and she's got a pretty decent fighting profile (with access to Banishment should you run into a Spirit model). Without a mount, she's not as mobile as you'd like (and with S4 and no bonuses to wound her damage output can be stalled out against high Defense troops), but she's a very, VERY good piece to ally into the list. I've chosen to make her the army leader so that if we have to play Assassination, we can make our assassin . . .Warband #5: The Fast and Deadly Troops
Legolas is nasty - he's like REALLY nasty. With the ability to pump out 3 shots a turn with his bow OR one shot that hits models in combat, he can be used to terrible effect against all kinds of enemies (and save your heroes from being overwhelmed by 1-wound warriors). For this series, I needed both fast troops and an actual banner in this list - and I got that with his troops (Legolas himself is mounted and has 3 Mirkwood Cavalry with him, plus a Mirkwood Elf with a banner, Elf bow, and Glaive). He leads 11 warriors altogether - 8 infantry and 3 cavalry (which can provide some very precise high Fight boosts in certain parts of the board. The banner should be trailing near Galadriel (who might not benefit from the Master's banner if there aren't any Lake-town models in Galadriel's fight) and/or Legolas.Scenario Overview
Let’s take a look at each of the available scenarios and see some thoughts/considerations for using this list:
- Domination: Five objectives on the field, four warbands under your control, and Legolas on the board - the objective is simple: have Legolas hold one objective while shooting models off another. Your Elf/Lake-town archery should be able to harass anyone who is left behind on far-flung objectives, but your Elves are going to need to work on giving your forces the edge against whatever models try to storm your objectives. Use Galadriel near your blocks of Lake-town troops to keep your army from being shot to pieces (especially by models that are sitting on far-flung objectives that Legolas can't reach with his bow).
- Capture and Control: Lake-town troops should begin by deploy in the center (as close to the center line as possible. Get locked in quick in the center with overwhelming numbers, using Galadriel to supplement their killing power (and potentially scatter some people with Instill Fear). Legolas and his troops should start on the flank, holding back so they're not in charge range (6 Elf bow shots are a threat to many things - and 12 Elves of any stripe will be hard to deal with if you only have a small band of models. Legolas and the cavlary can then focus on racing around to other objectives (with Legolas's ideal position being behind the enemy ranks).
- Hold Ground: Maelstrom . . . perfect. Have Alfrid arrive first (since the other heroes have 2-3 Might to make the arrival a bit better). Alfrid won't be able to dump his Will into anyone on the first turn, so hope you don't arrive next to a Ringwraith or Sauron. The Master arrives next, ideally near Alfrid. Braga walks on next, ideally next to the other two. In most situations, it's best if Galadriel arrives near the Lake-towners, as it will give them protection as they move up the field, but I'm not sure how necessary that is in this mission (depends on what you're facing, I guess). Finally, have Legolas arrive wherever he's safe - ideally near the rest of the group. Use Braga to March your army (potentially for free) towards the center, racing in with your cavalry if you face someone who's trying to rush the middle. Legolas is not great in combat, but he's not bad either - especially with Orcrist. Break the enemy as quickly as possible after you get some models in the center (though not breaking the enemy too quickly will be key to victory).
- Seize the Prize: Racing to the center is possible with Braga calling a March and the Mirkwood Cavalry racing full-steam ahead, but Legolas probably wants to play this a bit more carefully. With Legolas, three Elves with Elf bows, and 10 bows from Lake-town, you can place a good amount of fire on the center if your opponent races there (including a pinpoint shot from Legolas if someone does dig up the Prize on the first turn). The rest of the Lake-town army can advance (March with Braga to move up your Lake-town archers and Legolas/Elves instead of standing still) towards the center, ready to break off and guard the sides if your opponent gets the Prize and tries to run around your flanks. Galadriel can provide some niche benefits here with Instill Fear if she can get near the Prize-carrier (since she can send him running backwards and be rooted on the spot).
- To The Death: You want to not break and you want to break your opponent - use your shooting to whittle down the enemy's ranks, use Galadriel to mitigate damage from archery and magic, and surround your opponent as quickly as possible.
- Lords of Battle: This scenario is much more risky for you, as it's about kill-count and you have a lot of D4-5 troops. Yes, you're resilient against archery. Yes, you're fairly resilient to magic. Yes, you have Legolas. But if your opponent can get into you quickly and chop up your troops, you could be in for a tough slog. Also, all-hero armies will have a good time fighting you if they can get off 3-4 Heroic Combats on a turn and avoid the Elves.
- Contest of Champions: We made Galadriel our army leader, but this means she'll be in the center of the battleline and can scatter enemy supports away from the enemy leader if you get to move first. With F6/3A with 3-Might-and-Strike, she's pretty good at fighting (though with S4 and no bonuses to wound, she can bounce off high Defense models). Your goal, though, is not to kill the army leader with Galadriel - you're relying on other models to hold up enemy leaders. Instead, Galadriel should focus on killing chaff troops to get your kill count up. Legolas can help with this, shooting spear-supports so that Galadriel is just fighting 1-2 warriors (probably 1-2 dice). Braga should try to get into the enemy leader OR call Heroic Combats (potentially free) when in the same fight as Galadriel to get her plowing through troops (and getting some movement on Braga).
- Reconnoitre: Well, we're not THAT fast, but we do have enough models that we can make a Thin Red Line across the battlefield, keeping your opponent from racing through. You do have 4 cavalry (with Legolas) to race for the board edge, but you'll rely on your infantry heroes to hold up enemy models that try to get across your board edge. With a good pocket of archery and some Elves to support your Lake-town troops, I think you can hold models up and die slowly (if not overwhelm your opponent).
- Storm the Camp: The Master of Lake-town, Alfrid, and Braga should deploy first, with Braga in the center of a Pac-Man formation so you can March your army up quickly (and more efficiently use your March radius). Galadriel should deploy next, staying as close to the center of the formation as she can (without hindering Braga) so that she can provide protection from archery (and you can spend early turns buffing Legolas and Braga against magic). Your Elves follow the rest of the formation, with your cavalry protecting the flanks and Legolas and eventually reaching your opponent's camp. Alternatively, you can rely on your archery Elves and your Mirkwood Cavalry to defend your camp (I think you want Legolas on the offensive).
- Heirlooms of Ages Past: Maelstrom . . . great. Like we said previously, Alfrid arrives first (since he has no Might). The Master arrives next, ideally near Alfrid. Braga walks on next, ideally next to the other two. Galadriel does well arriving near the others, but so long as she doesn't deploy next to enemy warbands (which you may have no say in), she should be fine. Finally, Legolas and his Elves arrive - supporting any warbands that arrive in bad positions. When you place the objectives (which happens before deployment), place all of your tokens near each other so you know a place where there are three tokens - and if your opponent deploys one first, place near his first one (so that you can get access to one of his objectives too). Even if your opponent gets the Heirloom first, you can have Legolas focus on killing the model (and Galadriel can help with Banishment if the model is a spirit model).
- Fog of War: You have a TON of heroes - and only Galadriel Lady of Light is off the list. Your opponent will probably try to kill Alfrid or the Master, since they're both easier to kill. You probably want to protect Alfrid, since he can be tucked away early in the game if he dumps Will on Braga/the Master on the first two turns. You can even send him off with an honor guard to keep him safe if you want to. Pick a piece of terrain that you can get easily with Legolas and his cavalry (probably near the center of the board so you can be supported by your infantry). Use your shooting (especially from Legolas) to break your opponent - job's a good one.
- Clash By Moonlight: Um . . . you shooting. Like, a lot. AND you have archery protection that doesn't illuminate your models. Make sure your units stay within Galadriel's archery bubble (with her nowhere near the front until you get locked in) because any enemy archery that does pierce the cloud could wound her very, VERY easily. Siege engines will be your bane, since they hit from further than 12" on a 6 anyway, so they lose nothing BUT get +1 To Wound (probably wounding whoever they hit on a 2+). So unless your opponent has that, wait for them to come to you and shoot at enemy heroes early on so your opponent has to focus on your heroes (who are tucked away behind your troops).
As we've mentioned throughout this post, there are lots of ways to run Lake-town. Below are some additional builds you can run if you're willing to cave on at least one of the list building guidelines we've set out in this series. All of these lists are over 35 models, so no matter what you're facing, you're likely to be at/above the expected model count for this points level. Season your Lake-town army to taste and let us know if any of these builds scratch your interests better than the one we looked at today.
- Run "Pure" Army of Lake-town – While running 70 models without Bard could be really fun, I think if you hit 700pts, you need someone with Strike and that will qualify as possibly being a heavy-hitter. That means Bard and the girls are coming along (though Bain will be staying at home). This list has nearly 70 models (68 total) and is a shooting power-house with 21-23 shots each round. Of course, it's very vulnerable to magic and return archery of all stripes, so I can't say it's "better" than what we featured today. It does have +15 models, so that might make it a better option. This army has no actual banner and is all-infantry (except Bard), but with potentially free Heroic Marches from Braga - and more Marches from the Captain/extra Might from Alfrid on Braga/the Captain - you can get the movement you need. I'd recommend making a Pac-Man or Millenium Falcon formation to get the most out of your Marches. The cost of collecting the actual models for this list is, of course, astronomically high.
- The Master of Lake-town
- 8 Lake-town Guard
- 6 Lake-town Guard with spears and bows
- Alfrid the Councilor
- 6 Lake-town Guard
- 6 Lake-town Guard with spears and bows
- Braga, Captain of the Guard
- 5 Lake-town Guard
- 6 Lake-town Guard with spears
- Bard the Bowman on horse with armor [ARMY LEADER]
- Sigrid & Tilda
- 7 Lake-town Guard
- 4 Lake-town Guard with spears
- 2 Lake-town Guard with spears and bows
- Lake-town Guard Captain
- 5 Lake-town Guard
- 6 Lake-town Guard with spears and bows
- Ally with Thorin's Company – As great as Bard is, once you've bought him his horse, his armor, and his daughters, he's pretty expensive (nearly 200pts). Since you can get any two of the "big three" Dwarves from Thorin's Company (Thorin, Dwalin, and Gloin), it begs the question whether it's better to just ally some guys in from Thorin's Company and leave Bard at home. In this list, we've gone with a bare-bones Lake-town contingent (290pts for 32 models) and filled the rest with Throin's Company. I've opted for Gandalf (who was really expensive) and wanted four mounted models including Thorin (so Gandalf wouldn't be my army leader - though you could totally do that if you wanted). Besides Gandalf and Thorin, I chose Dori (because he's the cheapest 3A hero in the group) and Bifur (because he's a source of free Heroic Moves once he gets the axe out of his head). This list "only" has 36 models, but the only box it doesn't tick is the actual banner - and thanks to the army bonuses being retained, you have a 12" banner while the Master spends Might and so long as there is a Lake-town model engaged in/supporting in your fights. This list also has 15 Might (plus whatever Alfrid hopefully gives us) and good protection from enemy archery (and potentially defense against magical powers). Dismount Thorin/Bifur/Dori when they charge if you're worried about failing Courage tests.
- The Master of Lake-town
- 5 Lake-town Guard
- 5 Lake-town Guard with spears and bows
- Alfrid the Councilor
- 5 Lake-town Guard
- 5 Lake-town Guard with spears and bows
- Braga, Captain of the Guard
- 4 Lake-town Guard
- 5 Lake-town Guard with spears
- HISTORICAL ALLY - THORIN'S COMPANY: Thorin Oakenshield on pony with the Oakenshield and Orcrist [ARMY LEADER]
- Gandalf the Grey on horse
- Dori the Dwarf on pony
- Bifur the Dwarf on pony
- Ally with the Halls of Thranduil, the White Council, and Radagast's Alliance - This is a variant of the list that Rythbyrt ran with great success at our TMAT 2021 Grand Tournament. This list is a 700pt version has gone with Legolas instead of Haldir and a Lorien contingent. This list has traded all of the Mirkwood warriors to add Gwaihir and a few Lake-town guys. Fewer numbers ("only" 38 models), fewer fast troops ("only" a flier and Legolas), but a great beater hero in Gwaihir.
- The Master of Lake-town
- 6 Lake-town Guard
- 5 Lake-town Guard with spears and bows
- Alfrid the Councilor
- 6 Lake-town Guard
- 4 Lake-town Guard with spears and bows
- Braga, Captain of the Guard
- 5 Lake-town Guard
- 5 Lake-town Guard with spears
- 1 Lake-town Guard with spear and bow
- CONVENIENT ALLY - THE WHITE COUNCIL: Galadriel, Lady of Light [ARMY LEADER?]
- CONVENIENT ALLY - RADAGAST'S ALLIANCE: Gwaihir [ARMY LEADER?]
- CONVENIENT ALLY - HALLS OF THRANDUIL: Legolas Greenleaf, Prince of Mirkwood on horse with Orcrist [ARMY LEADER?]
In our next post, we turn from a spammable Forces of Good army that has one good combat hero to a spammable Forces of Evil army that has one good combat hero: the Dark Denizens of Mirkwood (don't worry Goblin-town fans, we'll get to those boys in a few weeks). With the Spider-Queen back in the GW store, I expect at least she will see some playing time more in the community (though GW's spiders aren't known for looking good, their stats are great). What can you do with this army? And who can you ally in to get the much-needed banner into the list so your spiders don't die? Find out next time - until then, happy hobbying!
As someone who routinely knocked this list before I started experimenting with it, I can attest to how many armies benefit from having access to so many cheap models, and how well the three core heroes (Master / Alfrid / Braga) fit together. I looked long and hard at a Mirkwood pairing with some Cav and Legolas before finally settling on Lorien for the F6 Galadhrim Guard, but I expect Thranduil (even on a budget) would also be a nice add. At larger points levels, a Wood Elf Sentinel or two also offer some nice utility. Again, the Lake-Town contingents are so cheap that there are a lot of great things you can ally in.
ReplyDeleteA great article as ever, I think you really did a great job of talking through the key points of Laketown. In particular, I think you really nailed the core question of running Laketown, of fielding Bard v bringing some allied heroes. For what it's worth, I absolutely agree with your stance on Bard. Jay Clare may be able to win tournaments with him in this list, but Jay has won big tournaments with the Fellowship pre-LL, so I don't think that says much. If you're not using Bard's awesome auric buffs, then he's just so much worse than comparably costed heroes, while also adding an extra demand on Alfrid's Will points. He's clearly so much better in Survivors of Laketown that unless he's overpowered there (probably not true to any real extent) he must be overpriced here.
ReplyDeleteAs far as who to replace him with, I like all of your takes. I think you do slightly undervalue Erebor Reclaimed as a source of combat heroes, however. Sure, Dwalin might let you keep your army bonus if you bring him from Thorin's company, but the amount of extra killing power you get for mounting him on a goat with Erebor Reclaimed is pretty serious. Something like Dwalin on goat and Gwaihir would make a great combo for a 600 point Laketown list, maybe with Legolas along at 700.
Personally, my favourite Laketown alliance is the Laketown trio and 39 Guards supporting Gwaihir and two Eagles. It's probably worse than the list I just included above, but it's got so much more mobility than you expect from Laketown and Braga in particular combos shockingly well with the Eagles. They rely so much on moving first to do damage, and if you give Braga Alfrid's Will then he can reliably call ten or more Heroic Moves per game. That's a lot of charge bonuses!
Obviously Rythbryt's list is a great one too, trading a bit of raw hitting power for some magic and archery-resistance. Honestly, anything based on this core is a great list.
As far as your first list, the one thing I'd disagree with is Orcrist on Legolas. I think that it's a decent purchase, but given that he already has an elven-made weapon, you're really not getting anything out of it in a lot of matchups. Even when you are, it's still got to compete with just bringing another two Laketown Guards or another Elf. Obviously always worthwhile with Thorin, but I'm not as sold on Legolas when you want to spend so much time shooting anyway
Fair point on Orcrist - though my decision to take it was largely driven by our podcasts on slayer heroes. When I computed Legolas's melee damage output, he becomes quite a bit better if he has the option to two-hand on the charge (everyone does, but F6/S4/2A heroes in particular get a lot better). As an added bonus, it makes Orc/Goblin hordes harder to overwhelm him (which, if he's shooting, they will probably try to do).
DeleteAll that said, if someone said they didn't want to take Orcrist in trade for 1-2 models, that wouldn't hurt my head.
I’m not quite sure I follow as to why Legolas wants to two-hand on the charge. Assuming there’s no one else in the fight to win the duel roll for him, two-handing will normally make an A3 (on the charge) hero go down in damage output by my maths. Spending Might on boosting your duel roll changes that, but spending that same Might on boosting a Wound roll is basically the same with 6 Strikes by my maths. Both use approximately the same amount of Might (depending on what you’re facing, there’s some complexity there) for basically the same boost in damage output I think. Are you assuming the presence of supporting troops/a banner? Otherwise I’m not sure what you’re gaining from going two-handed, other than the versatility I guess.
DeleteObviously the Orc-specific benefits are all great value in the right matchup, and clearly worth it on Thorin at least. I’m just a bit confused on the two-handing aspect and am wondering if I’m missing something obvious
Boosting your dueling roll only requires 1 Might point - boosting one wounding roll might add a single wound to your tally. If you're rolling 3 dice with no modifiers, you have a 0.421 probability of getting a 6-high, a 0.282 probability of getting a 5-high, a 0.171 probability of getting a 4-high, a 0.089 probability of getting a 3-high, a 0.032 probability of getting a 2-high, and a 0.005 probability of getting a 1-high.
DeleteWhen you two-hand, those probabilities shift down one slot with the 1-high getting what you would have gotten if you got a 1 or 2 (almost 4%, basically), while you have a ~26% chance of getting a 2 or 3-high, a 28% chance of getting a 4-high, and a 42% chance of getting a 5-high. If you're willing to boost that 5 to a 6, you're ready for the wounding roll.
I've got some posts coming up (writing them now - they take forever), but there are different ways you can measuring wounding rolls - the two most common of which are a) how many wounds should I expect to deal, and b) how likely am I to get X number of wounds. The first is the simpler one to answer and it involves figuring out what your wounding difficulty is to find a probability of wounding and then multiplying that probability by the number of dice you're rolling.
Against three sub-F6/D6 infantry warriors (the same math works for D5 warriors in this case - both of which are quite common), Legolas's S4 (with or without Orcrist) wounds the warrior on a 5+ (0.3333 probability) and Legolas will be rolling 6 dice (three sets of two dice, actually). He can expect to deal 2 wounds - hopefully against two different models (but again, because it's three sets of two dice, he could deal two wounds to one model and no wounds to the other models).
When two-handing, though, he wounds on a 4+ and still gets the six dice. Now he's expected to get 3 wounds in - potentially against all three models. I agree this kind of math gets better with Thorin (+1 Attack), but it helps Legolas too (who has probably already racked up some kills with archery). It may be minor, but my experience in using Legolas over the past 10 years is that if you can get even a few more kills in melee, your opponent will find it very hard to deal with him at all (since whatever hit squad came for him probably lost a good number of its guys trying to catch him).
I absolutely agree with all of that maths, and it’s more or less what I did when playing around with my spreadsheet yesterday, but it feels like you brush over the benefit of just spending Might to Wound. The only two circumstances in which the two ways of spending Might are different is if one costs you Might where the other one wouldn’t have, or where you would have rolled more than one of the exact number you’re aiming to boost to a success.
DeleteThe former is a pretty mixed boat to my mind. If you two-hand and don’t end up needing to spend Might to win the duel then two-handing wins here, but it loses if you don’t roll any of the right number to Wound (any 4’s against D6, for example). It also loses out in the case of overkill, where you wouldn’t have needed to spend that Might to boost Wound rolls because they’re already going to die, but would have already expended it it if you two-handed. While it’s impossible to calculate this perfectly without knowing the opponent you’re facing, it seems to me that you’re a little more likely to waste Might while two-handing than while spending Might on Wound rolls.
On the other hand, you do get straight upside whenever you roll two or more of the exact right dice roll in one turn (again, two 4’s to Wound against D6). Might would have only boosted one, two-handing boosts both. This is a genuine consideration, and I admit I haven’t run the numbers on it as it doesn’t quite fit how my spreadsheet works. Intuitively this doesn’t seem likely until you hit >6 Strikes, but it’s a real benefit to two-handing while mounted (although not really when on foot, because 2-4 Strikes are really unlikely to trigger a +1 to Wound twice).
My point here is that I can’t imagine how often that second point is going to outweigh the first to any real degree, and that I wouldn’t want to spend ten points preparing for those relatively marginal situations. My intuitive maths here could well be wrong though, and I’d love to hear your thoughts.
Re the benefit of doing a few extra kills with Legolas, you’re probably right, I haven’t really played him mounted enough to know. I’ve mostly only used him on foot with the rest of the Fellowship. And of course, you know my thoughts on him for narrative play!
I agree that it may not matter whether you two-hand or not - it can be helpful, and sometimes it won't be. I usually run him on foot myself in the Fellowship (where Orcrist isn't available to him) and he does fine (when left alone). Mounted gives him some extra oomph and Orcrist just appends to that. If someone chose to skip Orcrist that's fine with me.
DeleteI also provided the math above for the rest of the readers - your blog speaks volumes about your grasp of the math. ;-) You're quite right that calculating wounding benefits is quite difficult - something I hope to help with in a later post. :-)
Absolutely agree that Legolas is fine on foot, better on horseback, and honestly, in a GvE meta, maybe still better with Orcrist. And I’d love to read your take on Wounding benefits, I found your analysis of boosting Duel rolls really useful
DeleteThoughts on what you would drop or tweek to get the points down to 700 in a laketown + Thorins company alliance? Good Vs evil so thorin with orcrist is in.
ReplyDeleteIt's boiling down to size of horde, and do I take gandalf or not?
At 700pts, I think both archery (Serpent Horde or Corsairs) and magic (Ringwraiths) are likely to show up. As such, I think taking Gandalf is worth it - Thorin's Company isn't good at fighting either of those things without him.
DeleteI would begin with Gandalf on horse and Thorin with the Oakenshield and Orcrist (just under 300pts). You can add the 32-model "bare bones" Lake-town build above for 290pts. Your remaining 115pts could get you Dwalin and 20pts of Lake-town or two smaller heroes (like Dori and Ori) with 20pts of Lake-town as well. I think you want a second beater from Thorin's Company to support Thorin - though ponies could be good for movement too.
Yeah, I both love thorins company and the master of laketown. I've seen enough bard the bowman to know I don't want that pasty bellend when I could take more beaters.
ReplyDeleteI'm working on the "many beaters, lots of march, and spears with magic banner" method.
It better be good as I'm taking it for the entire of 2022.
You do that mate and tell us how it goes!
DeleteWill do! First...painting all those dudes. Well, actually paying for all the dudes first.
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