Hey Reader!
I'm beginning a new series on this blog centered around "overly pedantic stats," wherein we assign statistical values to different characteristics of a model to determine how strong the innate stat block is compared to other factions. We do not factor in skill level of the player, army composition, formations, or scenario, but instead just look at the raw stats of the warriors and heroes to see how good they are vis-à-vis each other.
We looked at five different characteristics for every hero and warrior: offensive capabilities, defensive capabilities, utility abilities, movement values, and cost. Each model was ranked on a scale of 1-5 in each category, and then was assigned a final overall value for the model. This overall value will not be used in today's post, as we are instead looking at the overall score by category for each civ, to see how they line up. We can then use these stats to determine the relative strength of the models in each faction in the game.
One use case for using these stats is answering the question of "power creep": are factions that were released later in the game (found in the Armies of The Hobbit book) stronger or better than the earlier factions that were released (found in the Armies of The Lord of the Rings book)? Let's find out.
I. The "Too Long, Didn't Read" Response
On the flip side, factions for the Forces of Evil from The Hobbit appear stronger at first than the factions from The Lords of the Rings on average, though in reality they are not stronger on average. In the Top 10 we have 5 Lord of the Rings armies and 5 Hobbit armies (so an even split), but those who know the Armies of The Hobbit book will know that there are only 7 evil factions in the book, meaning that there are 6 Lord of the Rings armies and only 2 Hobbit armies that did not make the Top 10. So at first glance people may think that Hobbit armies are stronger, but the two that didn't make the Top 10 are at the bottom of the list only above Sharkey's Rogues, so I would contend that they are not generally stronger than the Lord of the Rings factions.
In a future post we will go through the full ranking of the factions, but for now we will just look at the Top 10 for each side, as they are indicative of the trends. As a quick reminder, these are not "the best factions" in the game, but "the factions that have models that perform the best all-around in the five categories," with all categories being ranked equally.
II. Top 10 Analysis of Factions
Starting first with the Forces of Good, here are the Top 10:
As you'll notice, there are some rankings that do not surprise us: elven factions rank high as they tend to have good offense, mobility, and utility, as do monster-heavy armies that have really strong stats and typically only one or two weaknesses (with cost being the big one, and speed in the case of the ents).
It is worth noting that dwarves tend to rank lower because of their Movement and Utility scores, as they tend to be slower and don't have access to heavy support characters. So they tend to be near the middle of the rankings due to good Offense and Defense scores, but do not break the Top 10.
In future rankings we'll look at "conventional army" rankings so that stats aren't skewed by an "army" that is completely comprised of expensive casters or eagles (or in one case, an expensive caster, a bunch of eagles, and a bear dude), but at least for now, you can see that the list is primarily Lord of the Rings armies with a few Hobbit armies sprinkled in. So from a stats perspective, the Hobbit armies are not overall better than the armies from The Lord of the Rings.
Next, let's look at the Top 10 for the Forces of Evil:
Now before you laugh, remember what this is designed to show: the best overall scores in five categories with all five categories being ranked equally. If you took the Movement score out of the mix Easterlings would fall far down the list (as almost everyone in the Easterlings faction can take a mount with 10-12" of movement). The list is also looking at profiles, not army composition, so the profiles for Easterlings, for example, have good Defense and most of them actually have good Offense - the issue is that those good offensive units are typically only c. 25-35% of your force on the table.
But even taking the caveats aside, it makes sense the more you look at it: the top factions for Lord of the Rings are the ones that have a lot of options, a mix of mobility troops, good offensive capabilities, and a mix of expensive and cheap troops (especially now that Isengard lost the Ruffians and added more expensive Dunland forces). The Hobbit factions have the same, either in a small number of solid models (Smaug, the Trolls) or conventional armies with good offensive and mobility options that don't have glaring weaknesses (like the Defense ratings of Goblin Town or Denizens of Mirkwood, the two that did not make the list).
It is also worth noting that the Lord of the Rings armies came in with #2 - 6, only behind Smaug; while most of the factions in the Hobbit book came up in the Top 10, they were not beating out the likes of Mordor (a very fleshed out faction with lots of cool toys), Far Harad (a high mobility killing force for cheap), and Angmar (the king of asymmetric warfare and in the Top 3 for Utility).
Conclusion
We mentioned at the start of this post that this is not "the best factions in the game." The rankings do not look at army composition (so for example, heroes are not weighted less because they are less common in a conventional army), tactics (some generals deploy and use their troops better than others), scenarios (dwarven factions will perform better in Lords of Battle matches than they will in Reconnoiter matches, and Smaug will be hard pressed to win a Domination or Capture and Control match), or matchups (the Dead of Dunharrow kill orcs and goblins a lot more easily than elves).
It is also worth noting that, for specific scenarios and at different point levels, the rankings change. If mobility matters less than offense (To the Death, Contest of Champions, Lords of Battle, etc.), the rankings change dramatically, as they would if mobility was integral to winning the game (Heirlooms, Reconnoiter, Storm the Camp, etc.). In the future we'll look at faction rankings by category, so that if you are looking for a new faction that excels in a given area, or if you are looking for an allied contingent to round you out, you can use stats to guide your decision.
In the future we may also analyze specific factions based off of overly pedantic stats, but our aim in doing this is not just to do statistical computation for the sake of statistical computation. We hope to use stats to find useful ways to improve your gameplay with a given faction, help you zero in on a fun new faction to play, etc. So if you have specific questions, let us know!
Watching the stars,
Centaur
"I watch the stars, for it is mine to watch, as it is yours, Badger, to remember." ~ Glenstorm, Prince Caspian
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