Armies of Middle Earth SBG: Iron Hills Goat Riders (Profile and Basic Tactics)

Photo Credit: Sepulcher of Heroes

There are many stunning models in Forge World’s Iron Hills range, and yet the Iron Hills Goat Riders still manage to stand out. They’re not cheap (either in points or real money), but your investment is rewarded in-game. With a beefy stat-line, an 8” move, heavy armor on rider and steed, and a Strength 4 lance (okay, War Spear), they are a versatile and invaluable part of any dwarf army (and can be fielded in two: the Iron Hills and Erebor Reclaimed).

Below the jump, we’ll jump into their profile (including their signature special ability, Devastating Charge) and look at why they prove so dangerous (and resilient) on the table-top, as well as some basic tactics for when to commit your Goat Riders to the fray (and when you might want to rein them in). Plus, our signature series maths!

Iron Hills Goat Riders: The Basic Profile

We’ll start with the obvious strengths: Goat Riders are one of just two warrior profiles in the game that combine Strength 4 with a Lance (Mahud Raiders being the other). Strength 4 wounds Defense 5 or 6 on a 5+, and a lance converts that to a 4+ (or a 50% chance to wound). This means that, on the charge, a Goat Rider will have two dice to win the duel, and if the model is an infantry model (or is otherwise trapped or knocked prone—more on that later!), we will have four dice to wound, which will wound most enemies on a 4+. Very dangerous (especially over short distances).

Photo Credit: motherofdragonlance

The Mahud Raiders offer more offensive firepower and tactical flexibility. In addition to their impressive ability to wound in combat, they also have the cavalry-standard 10” movement that allows them to out-run all (non-marching) infantry and most monsters. Their 10” move (a full 2” more than the Goat Riders have) also pairs well with their 12” range blow-pipes and excellent 3+ shoot value, allowing them to skirmish with enemy infantry (or other cavalry and their mounts) for a turn or two before they commit to the charge.

Once they do charge, the Raiders’ Impaler special rule allows them to inflict a single Strength 4 hit on any model they charge (regardless of size). You roll this hit against the target’s Defense (and because it’s a hit, enemy heroes can use Fate to negate it), but it’s a single D6 roll that will usually wound on a 5+ (if the target is D6 or below). They are especially dangerous against enemy cavalry models, as a Raider inflict a S4 hit on both the rider and the mount.

Goat Riders don’t have that same shock impact or mid-range versatility, but they do pack more staying power. A Mahud Raider has a Defense 5 rider and a Defense 4 mount, which means most enemy infantry will wound the rider on a 5+, and the camel on at least a 5+ (Strength 4 infantry will wound the camel on a 4+). The Goat Rider’s mount is Defense 5 (only Dain’s War Boar and Fell Beasts have higher Defense on non-War Beast mounts), and the rider is a hearty Defense 6, which is low for dwarves (no option for a shield) but on-par with the best heavy cavalry in the game: only Easterling Kataphracts can get higher, and only in their mounted-Shieldwall formation (Gleaming Horde), which in practice is very hard to keep up in combat.

Defense 6 is also good insurance against Strength 3 infantry (most standard infantry are Strength 3), who will be sorely tempted to go after the goat (wounded on 5+) instead of the rider (wounded on 6s). Strength 3 cavalry (of which there are a lot) will face the same dilemma, and even Strength 3 cavalry with lances (Knights of Dol Amroth and Knights of Minas Tirith) will only wound the rider on a 5+, which is a tall order when you’re only rolling one attack die. The Goat Rider, for what it’s worth, will wound the rider on a 5+ normally (Strength 4), and a 4+ if it charged them (war spear).

The Goat Riders also have the Dwarf-standard Fight 4. This not only gives them a clear advantage in Fight Value against many infantry models (goblins, orcs, hobbits, and non-elite men), but it also gives them an edge against most enemy cavalry models as well: Knights of Minas Tirith (without Boromir), Riders of Rohan (without Theoden), Haradrim Raiders, Mahud Raiders, and Warg Riders all top-out at Fight 3, and even your elite cavalry (Mordor’s Morgul Knights, Rohan’s Royal Guard (without Theoden), Harad’s Serpent Riders, mounted Citadel Guard) and elite infantry (Uruk-Hai, elite Gondor/Mordor) are usually only going to manage tied Fight Value (elves being the glaring exception).

The goats themselves also have Mountain Dweller, a niche rule that allows them to treat difficult rocky terrain as open ground (fantastic for cavalry models, who really don’t like moving through difficult terrain of any kind) and lets them re-roll jump, leap, and climb tests. This gives them a sneaky-good chance (28.6%, instead of a 16.7% chance like all other cavalry) of being able to leap over a barrier and continue their movement (even to charge), as they have essentially two chances of rolling a “6” on their jump/leap tests (6, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, or 2-of-7 chance). It’s not what I’d call “reliable,” but it’s definitely an advantage that other cavalry don’t have.

Finally, let’s not forget that Goat Riders are a healthy Courage 4 base (Courage 5 if you squeeze a war horn into an allied contingent, like Army of Thror or Thranduil’s Halls), and can become Fearless if they’re within 12” of Dain Ironfoot (thanks to his Lord of the Iron Hills special rule). This makes them excellent for grabbing (and holding) far-flung objectives, which dwarves typically struggle to do (mostly due to their reduced movement, although Courage 4 will fail courage tests sometimes, too), and also allows them to consistently charge Terror-causing troops, monsters, or even heroes without having to worry about fluffed courage tests.

All in all, we have a pretty elite heavy cavalry profile, at about the points cost we usually pay for elite heavy cavalry profiles. So how do they perform in combat?

Goat Tactics Part I: Charging Infantry

Like most cavalry, Iron Hills Goat Riders are at their best when charging infantry models, although this is more complicated than just throwing cavalry models into blocks of infantry (which is almost always a terrible idea).

As a point of reference, here’s how effective our vanilla Iron Hills dwarves are at killing their opponents (Fight 4, Strength 4, Defense 8 in Shieldwall, two-dwarves on two opponents in their preferred shield wall formation): 

Iron Hills Shield / Spear with Shieldwall (F4, S4, D8) vs. Opposing Shield / Spear Ranks
	Orc         Sh/Sp          (F3, S3, D5)	Morannon        Sh/Sp       (F3, S4, D6)	Corsair           Sh/Sp       (F4, S3, D4)	Uruk-Hai           Sh/Sp      (F4, S4, D6)	Men           Sh/Sp         (F3, S3, D6)	Dwarf         Sh/Sp           (F4, S3, D7)	Iron Hills          Sh/Sp          (F4, S4, D8)	High-Elf           Sh/Sp          (F5, S3, D6)
Duel Win %	61.03%	61.03%	50.00%	50.00%	61.03%	50.00%	50.00%	38.97%
Kill %	33.91%	33.91%	37.50%	27.78%	33.91%	15.28%	15.28%	21.65%
Death %	6.22%	11.91%	7.99%	15.28%	6.22%	7.99%	15.28%	9.75%
Kill Ratio	5.45	2.85	4.70	1.82	5.45	1.91	1.00	2.22

Iron Hills Shield / Spear with Shieldwall (F4, S4, D8) + Iron Hills Banner
	Orc         Sh/Sp          (F3, S3, D5)	Morannon        Sh/Sp       (F3, S4, D6)	Corsair           Sh/Sp       (F4, S3, D4)	Uruk-Hai           Sh/Sp      (F4, S4, D6)	Men           Sh/Sp         (F3, S3, D6)	Dwarf         Sh/Sp           (F4, S3, D7)	Iron Hills          Sh/Sp          (F4, S4, D8)	High-Elf           Sh/Sp          (F5, S3, D6)
Duel Win %	71.93%	71.93%	59.54%	59.54%	71.93%	59.54%	59.54%	47.16%
Kill %	39.96%	39.96%	44.66%	33.08%	39.96%	18.19%	18.19%	26.20%
Death %	4.48%	8.58%	6.46%	12.36%	4.48%	6.46%	12.36%	8.44%
Kill Ratio	8.91	4.66	6.91	2.68	8.91	2.82	1.47	3.10

For more on how to read these tables, click here.

In their basic ranks, an Iron Hills shield wall manages to dispatch Fight 3 enemies with a very favorable kill-ratio (5.45 base, 8.91 with a nearby banner). Fight 4 opponents are more challenging, especially if they have Strength 4 and higher defense: against Uruk-Hai, the dwarves “only” manage a kill-ratio of 2.68 with a banner (which means they’re slightly more than two-and-a-half times more likely to kill than be killed). So are Elves (with their Fight 5), although the dwarves can still manage favorable kill ratios if they have banner rerolls and stay locked in Shieldwall to mitigate the elves’ Strength 3 attacks.

The Goat Rider on the charge trades that Defense 8 advantage (which is a significant advantage) for two offensive advantages over the shieldwall: the war spear basically converts those two Strength 4 hits into Strength 6 hits (which will wound most standard infantry (D5/D6) on a 4+), and knocks enemy infantry prone (which means they’re treated as trapped, giving the Goat Rider them four to-wound dice—each with a +1 to wound—instead of two). As a result, even though the Goat Rider’s defense goes down, it is still looking at very favorable kill ratios:

Iron Hills Goat Rider, Charging + War Spear (F4, S4, D6, 2A) [S3 targets Goat]
	Orc                (F3, S3, D5)	Morannon  (F3, S4, D6)	Corsair          (F4, S3, D4)	Uruk-Hai            (F4, S4, D6)	Man             (F3, S3, D6)	Dwarf         (F4, S3, D7)	Iron Hills                (F4, S4, D8)	High-Elf               (F5, S3, D6)
Duel Win %	74.54%	74.54%	66.20%	66.20%	74.54%	66.20%	66.20%	57.87%
Kill %	69.88%	69.88%	65.39%	62.07%	69.88%	53.13%	53.13%	54.25%
Death %	8.49%	8.49%	11.27%	11.27%	8.49%	11.27%	11.27%	14.04%
Kill Ratio	8.23	8.23	5.80	5.51	8.23	4.72	4.72	3.86

Here, the worst-case kill-ratio our Goat Rider has is almost 4.00 (3.86 times more likely to wound than be wounded by a Fight 5 high elf warrior)—and that’s spotting that elf a 5+ to wound our mount (instead of the 6 needed to wound the actual rider). Our best-case scenario is to go after models with lower fight than we have, where our double-dice to win the fight have a decided advantage: we’re 8.23 times more likely to wound than to be wounded by a Morannon orc, for example. Not too shabby.

As with all other models, the goat rider’s chance to win the fight—and thus to wound—goes up substantially if we also have the benefit of a banner: this gives our goat rider three dice to win the fight (two attacks + one reroll), to our opponent’s one. The result are favorable kill ratios ranging from better than 5-to-1 (high elves) to more than 13-to-1 (Fight 3 orcs/men), and a kill % as high as 77.47%:

Iron Hills Goat Rider, Charging + War Spear + Banner (F4, S4, D6, 2A) [S3 targets Goat]
	Orc                (F3, S3, D5)	Morannon  (F3, S4, D6)	Corsair          (F4, S3, D4)	Uruk-Hai            (F4, S4, D6)	Man             (F3, S3, D6)	Dwarf         (F4, S3, D7)	Iron Hills                (F4, S4, D8)	High-Elf               (F5, S3, D6)
Duel Win %	82.64%	82.64%	74.31%	74.31%	82.64%	74.31%	74.31%	65.97%
Kill %	77.47%	77.47%	73.39%	69.66%	77.47%	59.63%	59.63%	61.85%
Death %	5.79%	5.79%	8.56%	8.56%	5.79%	8.56%	8.56%	11.34%
Kill Ratio	13.39	13.39	8.57	8.13	13.39	6.96	6.96	5.45

Now, all of the above assumes that we’ve charged our goat rider into a single infantry model—where cavalry models are at their most advantageous. What happens if we run our goat rider head-log into a standard shieldwall (front rank of shields, back rank of spears)? Well…

Iron Hills Goat Rider, Charging + War Spear (F4, S4, D6, 2A) [S3 targets Goat]
	Orc Sh/Sp (F3, S3, D5)	Morannon Sh/Sp (F3, S4, D6)	Corsair Sh/Sp (F4, S3, D4)	Uruk-Hai Sh/Sp (F4, S4, D6)	Men Sh/Sp (F3, S3, D6)	Dwarf Sh/Sp (F4, S3, D7)	Iron Hills          Sh/Sp          (F4, S4, D8)	High-Elf           Sh/Sp          (F5, S3, D6)
Duel Win %	61.03%	61.03%	50.00%	50.00%	61.03%	50.00%	50.00%	38.97%
Kill %	57.22%	57.22%	49.38%	46.88%	57.22%	40.12%	40.12%	36.53%
Death %	21.65%	21.65%	27.78%	27.78%	21.65%	27.78%	27.78%	33.91%
Kill Ratio	2.64	2.64	1.78	1.69	2.64	1.44	1.44	1.08

So these kill ratios are far less favorable than the ones we looked at in single-combat: in fact, they’re worse than the kill ratios that our Iron Hills dwarves notched on foot, by a fair margin. The biggest culprit is our Death %: because our goat rider is now Defense 6 (or Defense 5, for Strength 3 warriors who target the goat), we’re looking at a Death % of somewhere between 21% and 34%. To put that number in perspective, our Iron Hills Warriors in Shieldwall (Defense 8) had Death %s between 6% and 16%--that’s a sizeable survivability advantage. The Goat Rider still notches excellent Kill %s (ranging from 36% to 57%), but it’s not enough of an increase to off-set our lower defense. In other words, the jump from D6 to D8 is huge.

The other big thing is the even number of dice (two for the Goat Rider, vs. two for the shield/spear rank). While our Goat Rider still has an advantage against Fight 3 opponents, the margin has shrunk (from ~75%/25% to ~60%/40%). Fight 4 opponents are now 50% likely to win the fight (and thus 50% likely to deal wounds to our Defense 6/5 rider/mount. And our Fight 5 opponents are now getting to wound two to-wound dice more than 60% of the time (and needing only a single 5+ to wound the goat).

Now none of this should surprise us. All cavalry in SBG tend to lose their effectiveness once infantry begin rolling the same amount of dice against them (or more), especially if the infantry has tied or higher fight value. Adding a friendly banner to the equation helps tips the balance again in the Goat Rider’s favor, but it’s still not enough to give a single Goat Rider a decisive advantage in combat against an organized shield wall:

Iron Hills Goat Rider, Charging + War Spear + Banner (F4, S4, D6, 2A) [S3 targets Goat]
	Orc Sh/Sp (F3, S3, D5)	Morannon Sh/Sp (F3, S4, D6)	Corsair Sh/Sp (F4, S3, D4)	Uruk-Hai Sh/Sp (F4, S4, D6)	Men Sh/Sp (F3, S3, D6)	Dwarf Sh/Sp (F4, S3, D7)	Iron Hills          Sh/Sp          (F4, S4, D8)	High-Elf           Sh/Sp          (F5, S3, D6)
Duel Win %	71.93%	71.93%	59.54%	59.54%	71.93%	59.54%	59.54%	47.16%
Kill %	67.43%	67.43%	58.81%	55.82%	67.43%	47.78%	47.78%	44.21%
Death %	15.60%	15.60%	22.48%	22.48%	15.60%	22.48%	22.48%	29.36%
Kill Ratio	4.32	4.32	2.62	2.48	4.32	2.13	2.13	1.51

And then there’s the not-so-small matter of enemy banners. If an opponent has a banner in-range of the fight and we do not, even a single warrior can improve his odds of surviving an encounter with a Goat Rider significantly. And if a Goat Rider attacks a standard shieldwall supported by a banner, even low-fight opponents have a very good chance of killing the goat rider—and high-fight models are more likely to wound than to be wounded (which is the exact opposite of what we’re looking for):

Iron Hills Goat Rider, Charging + War Spear (F4, S4, D6, 2A) [Enemy Banner, S3 targets Goat]
	Orc                (F3, S3, D5)	Morannon  (F3, S4, D6)	Corsair          (F4, S3, D4)	Uruk-Hai            (F4, S4, D6)	Man             (F3, S3, D6)	Dwarf         (F4, S3, D7)	Iron Hills                (F4, S4, D8)	High-Elf               (F5, S3, D6)
Duel Win %	61.03%	61.03%	50.00%	50.00%	61.03%	50.00%	50.00%	38.97%
Kill %	57.22%	57.22%	49.38%	46.88%	57.22%	40.12%	40.12%	36.53%
Death %	12.99%	12.99%	16.67%	16.67%	12.99%	16.67%	16.67%	20.34%
Kill Ratio	4.41	4.41	2.96	2.81	4.41	2.41	2.41	1.80
Iron Hills Goat Rider, Charging + War Spear (F4, S4, D6, 2A) [Enemy Banner, S3 targets Goat]
	Orc Sh/Sp (F3, S3, D5)	Morannon Sh/Sp (F3, S4, D6)	Corsair Sh/Sp (F4, S3, D4)	Uruk-Hai Sh/Sp (F4, S4, D6)	Men Sh/Sp (F3, S3, D6)	Dwarf Sh/Sp (F4, S3, D7)	Iron Hills          Sh/Sp          (F4, S4, D8)	High-Elf           Sh/Sp          (F5, S3, D6)
Duel Win %	52.84%	52.84%	40.46%	40.46%	52.84%	40.46%	40.46%	28.07%
Kill %	49.54%	49.54%	39.96%	37.93%	49.54%	32.47%	32.47%	26.32%
Death %	26.20%	26.20%	33.08%	33.08%	26.20%	33.08%	33.08%	39.96%
Kill Ratio	1.89	1.89	1.21	1.15	1.89	0.98	0.98	0.66

The bottom-line: If you’re facing an opponent with an entrenched standard shield wall, resist the urge to smash your goat riders into them in a head-on charge, as either your goat or your rider is likely to die. Save those head-on charges for your own Iron Hills shield wall (preferably with the Shieldwall buff active and a friendly banner), as they’re superb at doing so. While their defense is good, Goat Riders—like all cavalry models—don’t have enough to withstand sustained strikes from enemies who can strike them back.

Which leads us to…

The Advanced Profile: Devastating Charge (and its Timing)

I left Devastating Charge out of our basic profile discussion for two reasons. First, it is a situational ability; the odds are that we won’t have access to it 2/3 of the time. Second, when it does fire, it opens up a bunch of tactical alternatives for us… but we don’t know if those options are available to us until the ability fires; this means we have to commit the Goat Rider to combat without knowing for sure what tactics we’ll have access to. Here’s the rule text (Armies of the Hobbit, p. 30): 

Devastating Charge [Active] – The force of the Goat Rider’s charge is enough to knock even the most surefooted of foes to the ground.

When this model Charges into combat against one or more Man-sized (or smaller) models, roll a D6 for each. On a 5+, that model is immediately Knocked to the Ground.

The rule for Knocked to the Ground is found on page 62 of the main Rules Manual, but the biggest thing is that a model knocked to the ground is knocked Prone. The timing here is important: unlike other cavalry models which will knock infantry models prone on a turn in which the cavalry model charged (provided no other cavalry models join that same fight), Devastating Charge can knock a man-sized model to the ground immediately (on the roll of a 5+). Since that roll happens before the fight is resolved (usually during the Move Phase, less usually during the Fight Phase if the Goat charges as part of a Heroic Combat), man-sized models who are knocked prone due to Devastating Charge start the combat with some significant disadvantages.

As everyone knows, the most significant disadvantage about being prone is that the model counts as being trapped, which means any model in-combat with it will get to roll double dice to-wound if it/they win the fight (Rules pp. 62 and 47). This is still a major disadvantage against Goat Riders (as we saw above, the odds of surviving four Strength 4 to-wound dice, each with a +1 to-wound, is not good), but it’s not the greatest disadvantage conferred by Devastating Charge (since a Goat Rider that whiffs on its Devastating Charge roll will still get those double to-wound dice as long as they win the fight (and aren’t counter-charged by enemy cavalry models).

What makes Devastating Charge so tactically rich is that its timing (we’re usually knocking models prone in the move phase, instead of the fight phase) unlocks other key disadvantages associated with being prone that we usually don’t get to take advantage of. Here’s just one example: a prone model has no control zone (Rules p. 32), which means enemies can move within 1” of them unimpeded, as long as they don’t come into base contact with them (Rules p. 33). If the model is knocked prone in the Fight Phase (by a cavalry charge, for example), this almost never matters: for one, the model is probably going to die anyway (double to-wound dice, after all); for another, the model is going to have to back away in addition to being prone (and probably going to die anyway); and unless we’ve called a heroic combat (either in that fight or a fight near it), we’re unlikely to be moving models within 1” of that prone model, until at least the next round (if there’s a next round, assuming we get to move first).

The situation can be entirely different if we knock a model to the ground during our move phase (especially early in our move phase). If the model was blocking access to an important hero, a banner, or holding a flank to protect spearmen, our own infantry (or cavalry) forces can subsequently pass through its control zone (or even jump over it on the roll of a 2+ (Rules p. 33), in order to try to reach—or at least pressure—that priority target. Our own models can also usually see over prone models (Rules p. 32), and almost certainly will be able to see over any man-sized models who are knocked prone. Since the Move Phase precedes the Shoot Phase, knocking a model prone in the Move Phase may allow our sharp-shooters line of sight to priority targets (heroes, banners, mounts, other archers, Bard’s children) that our opponent thought were safely obstructed.

Being prone also has an adverse effect on many war gear options. Taking out enemy banners can be tricky, especially since any non-hero banner-bearer can pass their banner to another friendly warrior in base contact if they are slain. A simpler solution: knock the banner-bearer prone in the move phase (models can’t benefit from a banner if its bearer is prone, Rules p. 89), then resolve that banner fight last (preferably after forcing adjacent models to move away from the banner bearer in previous fights). You not only deprive the enemy of the banner’s bonuses, but you’ve made it more difficult for your opponent to recover the banner if you successfully wound its bearer. Models with ranged weapons cannot shoot in the Shoot Phase if they are prone (Rules p. 36), which means knocking a crossbow prone will deprive it of shooting for at least two turns instead of one (it can’t shoot while prone, Rules p. 36, can’t shoot in the same turn it moves, Rules p. 88, and a prone model can only stand by spending half its maximum movement allowance, Rules p. 33). Being prone also usually changes a model’s line of sight, which may limit their ability to cast spells (Rules p. 93), although in the case of Goat Riders, a caster won’t be casting spells anyway if they’re hit with Devastating Charge (because they’ll be engaged in combat).

Being knocked prone during the Move Phase also significantly reduces the odds that our Goat Rider will be slain in combat. A model that is prone during combat still gets to roll attack dice to win the duel, it does not get to roll any dice to wound its opponent (in this case, the Goat Rider). This leads to some pretty… uneven… kill ratios that tip heavily (and sometimes infinitely) in the Goat Rider’s favor (more on those below). To make matters worse, the prone model still has to back away if it loses the duel, while remaining prone (Rules p. 35); so if that model was holding an objective before it was hit with Devastating Charge, the Goat Rider can still force it away from the object (if not killing it outright with four Strength 4, +1 to-wound dice). And if the model happens to win the duel, it gets to stand up, but doing so costs it half of its maximum allotted movement (Rules p. 32). Usually this won’t matter, unless the model knocked prone is a hero (like Elendil or Thorin, King Under the Mountain) who called a Heroic Combat. They can still do that, but it’s harder to win the combat (they don’t get to make strikes, after all, so they’re reliant on their mates to score the kill) and even if they manage to do so, they’re much easier to contain (or avoid) because their subsequent charge threat range (after they stand up) is reduced to just 3” (or less, in Thorin’s case).

Which leads us to the richest tactical use for Devastating Charge: countering big (man-sized) heroes. A hero like Boromir on-foot with banner is very hard to take on head-on, with even a very large hero (he has enough Might to turn any “1” to a “6,” with 3 attacks, wounds, and fate to go with a beefy Defense 7 if you take a shield… and a shield! And Heroic Defense!). But with a little luck, a single Goat Rider that rolls a 5+ on Devastating Charge can effectively neutralize Boromir (no friendly models—including himself—benefit from the effects of his banner, and while he can still shield to roll 6 dice to defend himself, he gets to make no strikes if he wins the duel—and if he loses, whatever attacks him is rolling double-dice to-wound). And since the Knock to the Ground hinges on whether you roll a 5+ (and only on whether you roll that 5+), Boromir—and all his heroic stats and resources—can’t do anything to prevent it from happening. And if one Goat Rider fails to knock Boromir over, you can attempt a second Devastating Charge (and a third, and so on), as long as you have room to get to Boromir and enough Goat Riders (or heroes riding Goats) in reserve. It’s not exactly Strength 4 impact hits from Mahud Raiders, but it can potentially be more disruptive to your opponent.

Goat Tactics Part II: Deploying Devastating Charge

Let’s start with the simplest combat example: here’s how a Goat Rider fares against a single opponent, if it succeeds in rolling the 5+ to knock the model prone immediately:

Iron Hills Goat Rider, Charging + War Spear (F4, S4, D6, 2A) [5+ Knock Down]
	Orc                (F3, S3, D5)	Morannon  (F3, S4, D6)	Corsair          (F4, S3, D4)	Uruk-Hai            (F4, S4, D6)	Man             (F3, S3, D6)	Dwarf         (F4, S3, D7)	Iron Hills                (F4, S4, D8)	High-Elf               (F5, S3, D6)
Duel Win %	74.54%	74.54%	66.20%	66.20%	74.54%	66.20%	66.20%	57.87%
Kill %	69.88%	69.88%	65.39%	62.07%	69.88%	53.13%	53.13%	54.25%
Death %	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Kill Ratio	oo	oo	oo	oo	oo	oo	oo	Oo

While our Goat Rider’s Duel Win % and Kill % haven’t changed (they’re still pretty good against a single opponent), you’ll notice that its Death % has dropped to 0% across the board: this is to reflect that a model that is knocked prone can only stand up if it wins the duel—it cannot make strikes (and thus can’t wound the Goat Rider or its mount). This leads to an infinite Kill Ratio (“oo”), in the Goat Rider’s favor.

Devastating Charge doesn’t insulate a Goat Rider from damage if it charges head-first into a standard shield wall (remember—only models actually charged by the Goat Rider are impacted by Devastating Charge, not any models supporting them from behind), but cutting the to-wound dice from two (spear and shield) to just one (spear only) makes a difference, reducing our Death % from the 21-33% range to a much more manageable 13-20% range (and improving our Kill Ratios in the process):

Iron Hills Goat Rider, Charging + War Spear (F4, S4, D6, 2A) [5+ Knock Down]
	Orc Sh/Sp (F3, S3, D5)	Morannon Sh/Sp (F3, S4, D6)	Corsair Sh/Sp (F4, S3, D4)	Uruk-Hai Sh/Sp (F4, S4, D6)	Men Sh/Sp (F3, S3, D6)	Dwarf Sh/Sp (F4, S3, D7)	Iron Hills          Sh/Sp          (F4, S4, D8)	High-Elf           Sh/Sp          (F5, S3, D6)
Duel Win %	61.03%	61.03%	50.00%	50.00%	61.03%	50.00%	50.00%	38.97%
Kill %	57.22%	57.22%	49.38%	46.88%	57.22%	40.12%	40.12%	36.53%
Death %	12.99%	12.99%	16.67%	16.67%	12.99%	16.67%	16.67%	20.34%
Kill Ratio	4.41	4.41	2.96	2.81	4.41	2.41	2.41	1.80

As always, our Goat Rider gets even more mileage if supported by a friendly banner. Against single opponents, a Goat Rider gets to a 62% chance to kill a Fight 5 elf, with a 0% chance of dying, before any combat dice are rolled (the very definition of a low-risk move). And even against a Fight 5 high-elf shield wall, our Goat Rider supported by a banner is more than 2.5 times more likely to win the duel and kill an elf than the elves are to win the duel and slay his goat:

Goat Rider, Charging + War Spear + Banner (F4, S4, D6, 2A) [5+ Knock Down]
	Orc                (F3, S3, D5)	Morannon  (F3, S4, D6)	Corsair          (F4, S3, D4)	Uruk-Hai            (F4, S4, D6)	Man             (F3, S3, D6)	Dwarf         (F4, S3, D7)	Iron Hills                (F4, S4, D8)	High-Elf               (F5, S3, D6)
Duel Win %	82.64%	82.64%	74.31%	74.31%	82.64%	74.31%	74.31%	65.97%
Kill %	77.47%	77.47%	73.39%	69.66%	77.47%	59.63%	59.63%	61.85%
Death %	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Kill Ratio	oo	oo	oo	Oo	oo	oo	oo	Oo
Goat Rider, Charging + War Spear + Banner (F4, S4, D6, 2A) [5+ Knock Down]
	Orc Sh/Sp (F3, S3, D5)	Morannon Sh/Sp (F3, S4, D6)	Corsair Sh/Sp (F4, S3, D4)	Uruk-Hai Sh/Sp (F4, S4, D6)	Men Sh/Sp (F3, S3, D6)	Dwarf Sh/Sp (F4, S3, D7)	Iron Hills          Sh/Sp          (F4, S4, D8)	High-Elf           Sh/Sp          (F5, S3, D6)
Duel Win %	71.93%	71.93%	59.54%	59.54%	71.93%	59.54%	59.54%	47.16%
Kill %	67.43%	67.43%	58.81%	55.82%	67.43%	47.78%	47.78%	44.21%
Death %	9.36%	9.36%	13.49%	13.49%	9.36%	13.49%	13.49%	17.61%
Kill Ratio	7.21	7.21	4.36	4.14	7.21	3.54	3.54	2.51

Devastating Charge can even bail our Goat Rider out if we somehow charged him somewhere where he has no banner support, and the enemy does. While his odds to win the duel (and his odds to wound) are lower, against a single opponent he still has a 0% chance of suffering any wounds, and against a standard shield wall, his kill ratios are still better than 1 (instead of the 0.8 to 0.5 range if both opponents were able to make strikes):

Goat Rider, Charging + War Spear + Banner (F4, S4, D6, 2A) [Enemy Banner, 5+ Knock Down]
	Orc                (F3, S3, D5)	Morannon  (F3, S4, D6)	Corsair          (F4, S3, D4)	Uruk-Hai            (F4, S4, D6)	Man             (F3, S3, D6)	Dwarf         (F4, S3, D7)	Iron Hills                (F4, S4, D8)	High-Elf               (F5, S3, D6)
Duel Win %	61.03%	61.03%	50.00%	50.00%	61.03%	50.00%	50.00%	38.97%
Kill %	57.22%	57.22%	49.38%	46.88%	57.22%	40.12%	40.12%	36.53%
Death %	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Kill Ratio	oo	oo	oo	oo	oo	oo	oo	Oo
Goat Rider, Charging + War Spear + Banner (F4, S4, D6, 2A) [Enemy Banner, 5+ Knock Down]
	Orc Sh/Sp (F3, S3, D5)	Morannon Sh/Sp (F3, S4, D6)	Corsair Sh/Sp (F4, S3, D4)	Uruk-Hai Sh/Sp (F4, S4, D6)	Men Sh/Sp (F3, S3, D6)	Dwarf Sh/Sp (F4, S3, D7)	Iron Hills          Sh/Sp          (F4, S4, D8)	High-Elf           Sh/Sp          (F5, S3, D6)
Duel Win %	52.84%	52.84%	40.46%	40.46%	52.84%	40.46%	40.46%	28.07%
Kill %	49.54%	49.54%	39.96%	37.93%	49.54%	32.47%	32.47%	26.32%
Death %	15.72%	15.72%	19.85%	19.85%	15.72%	19.85%	19.85%	23.98%
Kill Ratio	3.15	3.15	2.01	1.91	3.15	1.64	1.64	1.10

Goat Tactics Part III: Devastating Charge vs. Heroes

We’ve already talked about how a well-timed Devastating Charge can make life very difficult for heroes on foot by knocking them prone, which deprives them of the chance to deal wounds in the Fight Phase, reduces their threat range on a Heroic Combat, and makes those Heroic Combats even less likely to work. The trick will work on any foot-hero (or a mounted hero, if your Goat Rider is preceded by a warrior with throwing weapons, like a Grim Hammer), and can be very effective if a bigger hero charges one of your smaller heroes—especially if your opponent won priority.

Here’s an example. Let’s say your opponent has priority and Aragorn, King Elessar on-foot charges Dain Ironfoot (because your opponent won priority or a Heroic Move-off, and knows just how dangerous mounted Dain Ironfoot is when he charges). Now under normal circumstances, Dain is probably not fussed about being charged by another Fight 6 model on foot—but there’s nothing normal about Aragorn, King Elessar. For one thing, his Fight 6/3Attacks (tied with Dain on both fronts) comes accompanied with an elven-made sword, which gives Aragorn a 67% chance of winning drawn combats, compared to Dain’s 33%. For another, that elven-made sword is Anduril, Flame of the West, which deals wounds on a 4+ regardless of Dain’s impressive Defense 8 (or his war boar’s Defense 6). Finally, Aragorn, King Elessar has a 6” banner effect that applies to all friendly models (which includes himself)—so he’s a Fight 6, 3 attack hero wielding an elven-made weapon that wounds on 4s, with a free banner reroll (and probably Might to boost his duel roll).

Long story short, despite having roughly equal stats as Aragorn, this is actually a very unsafe position for Dain—even if he has a banner supporting him—especially if Aragorn decides to two-hand with Anduril and boost his highest dice roll with Might (so he’s wounding Dain on a 3+):

Dain Ironfoot, Charged (F6, S5, D8, A3, Burly) vs. Aragorn, King Elessar on foot (F6, S4, D7, A3, Anduril, Banner Effect)
	Base	+ IH Banner	Aragorn 2H + Boost	Aragorn 2H Boost + IH Banner
Duel Win %	37.96%	43.83%	37.96%	43.83%
Kill %	36.55%	42.21%	36.55%	42.21%
Death %	54.29%	49.15%	59.74%	54.09%
Kill Ratio	0.67	0.86	0.61	0.78

Now normally in a situation like this, we’d try to cut our losses by either increasing our fight value (to try to get higher Fight than Aragorn, so his elven blade doesn’t matter) or add more dice to the fight. Unfortunately, as we saw in our discussion of Heroic Strike, a Heroic Strike-off when both competitors are Fight 6 is extremely difficult to predict: Dain has a 33% chance of winning the Strike-off (12/36 outcomes), and a 67% chance of either losing the Strike-off to Aragorn (Aragorn ends with higher fight) or ending up with the same Fight Value as Aragorn (in which case his elven-made sword will still win 67% of the drawn combats):

Both sides Start with Equal Fight Value (F6 vs. F6)
		Target (FV: 5) Duel Roll
		"1"	"2"	"3"	"4"	"5"	"6"
Challenger (FV: 5) Duel Roll	"1"	Draw	Loss	Loss	Loss	Loss	Loss
	"2"	Win	Draw	Loss	Loss	Loss	Loss
	"3"	Win	Win	Draw	Loss	Loss	Loss
	"4"	Win	Win	Win	Draw	Draw	Draw
	"5"	Win	Win	Win	Draw	Draw	Draw
	"6"	Win	Win	Win	Draw	Draw	Draw

Adding more dice to the fight helps some, but not a lot—at least if we’re adding basic Iron Hills warriors to the fray. Adding another two warriors (giving the Iron Hills 5 dice to Aragorn’s 3) sounds like it should work—but without a banner, Aragorn still has a slight edge (thanks to his banner-reroll effect and elven-made sword), and even adding a banner to the Iron Hills’ ledger only barely pushes the fight in their favor (a 51.6% chance of winning the duel, and only a 1.01 Kill Ratio—meaning the fight is essentially a 50-50):

Dain Ironfoot, Charged (F6, S5, D8, A3, Burly)    vs. Aragorn, King Elessar on foot (F6, S4, D7, A3, Anduril, Banner Effect)
	Base	+ IH Banner	Aragorn 2H + Boost	Aragorn 2H Boost + IH Banner	+ x2 IH Dwarves [Sp/Sh, F4, S4, D8]	+ x2 IH Dwarves + IH Banner
Duel Win %	37.96%	43.83%	37.96%	43.83%	48.23%	51.60%
Kill %	36.55%	42.21%	36.55%	42.21%	44.04%	47.12%
Death %	54.29%	49.15%	59.74%	54.09%	49.85%	46.61%
Kill Ratio	0.67	0.86	0.61	0.78	0.88	1.01

Now let’s consider a second alternative: when your turn to move comes, you charge Aragorn with a Goat Rider. Even before we roll for Devastating Charge, we’ve essentially duplicated the effect of adding two Iron Hills dwarves to the fight (we get two more attack dice to try to win the duel), only this time if we win, both Dain and the Goat Rider will be rolling double-dice to-wound Aragorn (because the Goat Rider will knock him to the ground). And if we roll that 5+ on Devastating Charge, the situation flips dramatically:

Dain Ironfoot, Charged (F6, S5, D8, A3, Burly)                                                                                          vs. Aragorn, King Elessar on foot (F6, S4, D7, A3, Anduril, Banner Effect)
	Base	+ IH Banner	Aragorn 2H + Boost	Aragorn 2H Boost + IH Banner	+ IH Goat Rider	+ IH Goat Rider + IH Banner	+ IH Goat Rider [5+ Dev. Charge]	+ IH Goat Rider [5+] + Banner
Duel Win %	37.96%	43.83%	37.96%	43.83%	48.23%	51.60%	48.23%	51.60%
Kill %	36.55%	42.21%	36.55%	42.21%	48.08%	51.44%	48.08%	51.44%
Death %	54.29%	49.15%	59.74%	54.09%	49.85%	46.61%	0.00%	0.00%
Kill Ratio	0.67	0.86	0.61	0.78	0.96	1.10	oo	oo

Aragorn is now knocked prone, buying Dain Ironfoot at least one more turn of combat (because Aragorn can’t make strikes if he wins the duel—he can only stand up). Your Goat Rider is also safe for the same reason—as is every other model you now choose to charge into the combat with Aragorn. And don’t underestimate the psychological swing for your opponent, who has gone from what he (rightly) thought was an advantageous combat to one where he is under immense pressure: not only is Aragorn unable to wound anyone this round, but he’ll be taking double-strikes unless he wins the combat—and will be prone at the start of the next Move Phase, unless he wins priority and/or a Heroic Move-off.

The takeaway? Devastating Charge is really good when it fires. (And take banners, people!).

Goat Tactics Part IV: Jousting Cavalry

Lastly, let’s consider how Goat Riders fare in combat against enemy cavalry models. Usually we’d want to avoid this if at all possible (per Rules p. 62, a Cavalry model that doesn’t have Monstrous Charge loses its extra-attack and knock-to-the-ground bonuses if it charges another cavalry model, charges a group of enemy models that includes an enemy cavalry model, or is counter-charged by another cavalry model), especially if we’re on the offensive. It makes much more sense as a defensive measure: yes, our Goat Rider loses a lot of its effectiveness in combat if it counter-charges another cavalry model (just one attack, and just one Strength 4 die at +1 to-wound if we counter-charged), but if it saves our infantry from being knocked prone and taking multiple to-wound dice in the ensuing fight phase, it’s probably worth it.

So here’s how our Goat Riders will fare if against some of the more common cavalry models in the game. The top table assumes that our Goat Rider was charged, i.e., the Goat Rider doesn’t get their +1 to-wound from their war spear (see Rules p. 85 & 86), and their opponent gets the benefit of a lance (if they have one). The second table assumes the Goat Rider charged, gaining the +1 to wound from its war spear (while its opponent doesn’t get the benefit of any lance/war spear it bears):

Iron Hills Goat Rider, Charged (F4, S4, D6) [S3 targets Goat; S4 targets horse]
	Warg Rider (F3, S4, D5/D4)	Serpent Rider (F4, S3, D4, Poisoned War Spear)	Morgul Knight (F4, S3, D6, Lance)	Mahud Raider (F3, S4, D5, War Spear)	Knight of Minas Tirith (F3, S3, D6, Lance)	Rohan Royal Guard [Charge] (F5, S4, D6)	Iron Hills Goat Rider (F4, S4, D6, Lance)	Rivendell Knight (F5, S3, D6, Lance)
Duel Win %	58.33%	50.00%	50.00%	58.33%	58.33%	41.67%	50.00%	41.67%
Kill %	29.17%	25.00%	16.67%	29.17%	29.17%	20.83%	25.00%	20.83%
Death %	13.89%	29.17%	29.17%	24.31%	24.31%	19.44%	25.00%	29.17%
Kill Ratio	2.10	0.86	0.57	1.20	1.20	1.07	1.00	0.71
Iron Hills Goat Rider, Charge + War Spear (F4, S4, D6) [S3 targets Goat; S4 targets horse]
	Warg Rider (F3, S4, D5/D4)	Serpent Rider (F4, S3, D4, Poisoned War Spear)	Morgul Knight (F4, S3, D6)	Mahud Raider (F3, S4, D5)	Knight of Minas Tirith (F3, S3, D6)	Rohan Royal Guard (F3, S3, D6)	Iron Hills Goat Rider (F4, S4, D6)	Rivendell Knight (F5, S3, D6)
Duel Win %	58.33%	50.00%	50.00%	58.33%	58.33%	58.33%	50.00%	41.67%
Kill %	38.89%	33.33%	25.00%	38.89%	38.89%	38.89%	33.33%	27.78%
Death %	13.89%	19.44%	16.67%	13.89%	13.89%	13.89%	16.67%	19.44%
Kill Ratio	2.80	1.71	1.50	2.80	2.80	2.80	2.00	1.43

Notice how much the Kill % and Death % swings depending on which cavalry model charges. If the Goat Rider is charged (top table), its Kill % ranges from 16.67% (Morgul Knight) and 29% (Warg Rider/Mahud Raider/KoMT, all of whom are Fight 3), because it doesn’t get that +1 to-wound on its single to-wound die. Conversely, its Death % is mostly between 24% and 29%, because our opponent is getting that +1 to-wound (the notable exceptions being our two non-lance cavalry models, Warg Riders and Royal Guard, who have Death %s of 13.89% and 19.44%, respectively).

Flip the script and have the Goat Rider charge (bottom table), and suddenly our Kill % jumps from between 17% and 29% to between 25% and 39% (we’re getting that +1 to-wound), while our Death % now ranges from 14% to 19%, instead of mostly 24-29% (our opponent is no longer getting a +1 to-wound). As a result, we now have some favorable Kill Ratios (although none of them are greater than 3-to-1).

As you probably expect, the presence of friendly (or enemy) banners swings the tables yet again. Because each side is getting only a single attack die to win the duel in these scenarios, the ability to re-roll a die to win the duel has a significant impact on our Duel Win %, which then increases (or decreases) the Kill % and Death % on both sides. If our Goat Rider is charged, but has a banner, he can get a decent chance to win the fight and avoid death, especially against Fight 3 opponents (though it doesn’t much improve his chance of wounding). But if our Goat Rider is charged and our enemy has a supporting banner, his odds are pretty long, especially if the enemy has a lance or war spear:

Iron Hills Goat Rider, Charged + Banner (F4, S4, D6) [S3 targets Goat; S4 targets horse]
	Warg Rider (F3, S4, D5/D4)	Serpent Rider (F4, S3, D4, Poisoned War Spear)	Morgul Knight (F4, S3, D6, Lance)	Mahud Raider (F3, S4, D5, War Spear)	Knight of Minas Tirith (F3, S3, D6, Lance)	Rohan Royal Guard [Charge] (F5, S4, D6)	Iron Hills Goat Rider (F4, S4, D6, Lance)	Rivendell Knight (F5, S3, D6, Lance)
Duel Win %	74.54%	66.20%	66.20%	74.54%	74.54%	57.87%	66.20%	57.87%
Kill %	37.27%	33.10%	22.07%	37.27%	37.27%	28.94%	33.10%	28.94%
Death %	8.49%	19.71%	16.90%	12.73%	12.73%	14.04%	16.90%	21.06%
Kill Ratio	4.39	1.68	1.31	2.93	2.93	2.06	1.96	1.37
Iron Hills Goat Rider, Charged (F4, S4, D6) [Enemy Banner; S3 targets Goat; S4 targets horse]
	Warg Rider (F3, S4, D5/D4)	Serpent Rider (F4, S3, D4, Poisoned War Spear)	Morgul Knight (F4, S3, D6, Lance)	Mahud Raider (F3, S4, D5, War Spear)	Knight of Minas Tirith (F3, S3, D6, Lance)	Rohan Royal Guard [Charge] (F5, S4, D6)	Iron Hills Goat Rider (F4, S4, D6, Lance)	Rivendell Knight (F5, S3, D6, Lance)
Duel Win %	42.13%	33.80%	33.80%	42.13%	42.13%	25.46%	33.80%	25.46%
Kill %	21.06%	16.90%	11.27%	21.06%	21.06%	12.73%	16.90%	12.73%
Death %	22.51%	38.62%	38.62%	33.76%	33.76%	24.85%	33.10%	37.27%
Kill Ratio	0.94	0.44	0.29	0.62	0.62	0.51	0.51	0.34

Conversely, if our Goat Rider charges, our opponent can still weather the storm if supported by a banner (although again, their odds of wounding our Goat Rider are still quite low, without their +1 to-wound). But if our Goat Rider is the only one with banner support, he’s suddenly a very effective anti-cavalry model, even against high-fight, heavily-armored opponents:

Iron Hills Goat Rider, Charging (F4, S4, D6) [Enemy Banner; S3 targets Goat; S4 targets horse]
	Warg Rider (F3, S4, D5/D4)	Serpent Rider (F4, S3, D4, Poisoned War Spear)	Morgul Knight (F4, S3, D6)	Mahud Raider (F3, S4, D5)	Knight of Minas Tirith (F3, S3, D6)	Rohan Royal Guard (F3, S3, D6)	Iron Hills Goat Rider (F4, S4, D6)	Rivendell Knight (F5, S3, D6)
Duel Win %	42.13%	33.80%	33.80%	42.13%	42.13%	42.13%	33.80%	25.46%
Kill %	28.09%	22.53%	16.90%	28.09%	28.09%	28.09%	22.53%	16.98%
Death %	19.29%	25.75%	22.07%	19.29%	19.29%	19.29%	22.07%	24.85%
Kill Ratio	1.46	0.88	0.77	1.46	1.46	1.46	1.02	0.68
Iron Hills Goat Rider, Charging + Banner (F4, S4, D6) [S3 targets Goat; S4 targets horse]
	Warg Rider (F3, S4, D5/D4)	Serpent Rider (F4, S3, D4, Poisoned War Spear)	Morgul Knight (F4, S3, D6)	Mahud Raider (F3, S4, D5)	Knight of Minas Tirith (F3, S3, D6)	Rohan Royal Guard (F3, S3, D6)	Iron Hills Goat Rider (F4, S4, D6)	Rivendell Knight (F5, S3, D6)
Duel Win %	74.54%	66.20%	66.20%	74.54%	74.54%	74.54%	66.20%	57.87%
Kill %	49.69%	44.14%	33.10%	49.69%	49.69%	49.69%	44.14%	38.58%
Death %	8.49%	13.14%	11.27%	8.49%	8.49%	8.49%	11.27%	14.04%
Kill Ratio	5.85	3.36	2.94	5.85	5.85	5.85	3.92	2.75

One last thing to think about: we mentioned earlier that the primary reason you’d want to charge your Goat Rider into another cavalry model is to counter-charge if your opponent has thrown his cavalry into your infantry (and you’d like to prevent them from being knocked prone). Here’s just one example of how this can help flip the script: suppose your opponent has charged a Rivendell Knight into your battle-line of Iron Hills Dwarves in Shieldwall formation. The dwarves are pretty tough, but even so, two dwarves against a single Rivendell Knight, charging, with a lance, are almost twice as likely to be killed as they are to kill the Rivendell Knight’s horse (Kill Ratio: 0.56). Adding a banner helps even the odds slightly, but the Rivendell Knight is still more likely to kill a dwarf than he is to die himself (or lose his mount – Kill Ratio: 0.78): after all, if he wins the duel (and he has the same number of attack dice (2) with the higher fight value (Fight 5)), he’ll have four to-wound dice, wounding that front dwarf (even at Defense 8) on a 5/3+ (thanks to the Rivendell Knight’s lance). Now look what happens if we have a single Goat Rider counter-charge that Rivendell Knight:

Iron Hills Sp/Sh (F4, S4, D8) vs. x1 Rivendell Knight (F5, S3, D6/D5, Lance)
	Base	+ IH Banner	+ Iron Hills Goat Rider	+ Goat Rider + Banner
Duel Win %	38.97%	47.16%	65.97%	70.74%
Kill %	21.65%	26.20%	51.31%	55.02%
Death %	38.70%	33.50%	17.01%	14.63%
Kill Ratio	0.56	0.78	3.02	3.76

The biggest difference is that we’ve gone from winning the fight only 39% of the time (or 47% with a banner) to 66% of the time without a banner (71% with it). The Rivendell Knight still has higher Fight (Fight 5), but is now only rolling a single attack die to win the fight, because the Goat Rider’s counter-charge has cancelled his charge bonus; meanwhile, the Goat Rider has added its attack die to win the duel to those of the two Iron Hills dwarves, which means the Iron Hills are rolling three duel dice to the Rivendell Knight’s one die (plus Iron Hills has a reroll if there is a nearby banner).

The Rivendell Knight’s odds of dealing a wound have also plummeted: it’s still getting that +1 to-wound (because it charged, and a lance still gives a +1 to-wound against cavalry models as long as you charged), but because the Goat Rider has cancelled the Rivendell Knight’s Knock-to-the-Ground bonus, it only has a single die (with +1 to-wound) to try to kill an opponent, instead of the four to-wound dice it was rolling earlier. Meanwhile, the Iron Hills’ Kill % has jumped up significantly (from 22/26% to 51/55%), because the Iron Hills are now rolling three to-wound dice: two Strength 4 dice from the dwarves on foot (wounding the Knight on 5s, and his mount on 4s), and one Strength 4, +1 to-wound die from the Goat Rider (who also charged, and thus also gets his bonus from his war spear), which will wound the Knight on 4s (and his mount on 3s!). As a result, the Kill Ratios have swung from two-to-one in the Rivendell Knight’s favor (0.56), to almost four-to-one in the Iron Hills’ favor (3.76).

Concluding Thoughts

Hopefully you found some food for thought in this discussion of Iron Hills Goat Riders. If you've liked what you read and want to learn more about the heroes and warriors of the Iron Hills, check out our Iron Hills / Erebor Reclaimed Army Page for more from the TMAT team and other members of the Middle Earth SBG community, along with links to battle reports, podcasts, and more!