Dueling Calculator: Dealing X Wounds

Good morning gamers,

Today we're back in the calculator and talking about wounding things. Last time, we talked about how you can calculate the "average expected" number of wounds to a target and today we're looking at the other commonly-asked question: "How likely am I to deal X wounds?" Get your spreadsheets ready (or your coffee if you're just looking for rules of thumb) and let's dig in!

Wounding Rolls: Setting Reasonable Expectations

In this post, we are going to limit our discussion to figuring out how likely a model is to deal 1-6 wounds to an enemy model - we could go as high as 10 (the Balrog and Mumaks) or 20 (Smaug), but most models are killed after suffering 6 wounds AND very few models can deal more than 6 wounds on their own. You CAN apply these principles to doing more than 6 if you want to, but I feel like that's out of scope for this article.

Finding your likelihood of getting X somethings when rolling Y dice can be solved mathematically with a "binomial distribution," which is fancy talk for "finding all the distinct values you can roll for two variables (in this case the number of dice and the probability of wounding) and counting all the things that match." Yes, there's a more technical definition, but that's what it does. :) We're going to be using Microsoft Excel for this exercise, but if you want to understand the math behind the formula we're using, check out this YouTube video (and you can also check out this YouTube video if you build Google Spreadsheets).

To find our probability of getting X successes out of Y dice, we need the following four inputs:

• The number of dice we're rolling (we'll call these "trials");
• The probability of wounding our opponent (we'll call this "p_wound");
• The minimum number of successes we're looking for (we'll call this "floor"); and
• The maximum number of successes we're looking for (we'll call this "ceiling" - though in this case, the ceiling is going to be the same as our "trials" number, since we aren't looking for "exactly 3-5 wounds" in this particular math example).

The Bare Necessities, Part XLV: The Wildmen of Druadan

Good morning gamers,

We're on the second to last army to review in this series and today we're talking about a faction that most players don't even consider playing: the Wildmen of Druadan. This army, (which began as its own faction, then became part of the Wanderers in the Wild during the "Warband era", and are now their own faction again) has seen very little change in the profiles since their original release. Due to having average stats (except for below-average Defense), there doesn't seem to be much reason to try running these guys - and with only one historical ally and a 16-model limit if you ally conveniently, there are limited options for even using the army. But as is often the case, the army everyone thinks is garbage can have surprises for you on the tabletop - let's dig in. :)

If you're not in the movies, you don't get a GIF . . . unsurprisingly . . .

The Wildmen of Druadan: The Art of the Keep-Away Horde

I don't play Druadan - though I do like their Legendary Legion. Because I don't play them (I like my Wood Elves and think they're a better list), I decided I needed to reach out to an expert on how to think about the faction and get some tips on how to run them. I asked veteran player and American legend Tim Hixon to give me some feedback on a host of questions and boy did he pile on the feedback! Here is some of the information he passed on to me:

Tiberius: At first glance, Druadan has warriors that are both expensive (9 points/model), but with spears on every model and Stalk Unseen, it would appear that you'd want to use terrain to your advantage when engaging with the enemy?

Tim: Numbers are also a crucial thing to consider and since you pay for one hero to field this force it is very cheap in comparison to other forces. So despite their higher per model cost you are not paying the hero tax in a Green alliance.

Never take on a numerically larger force. You will need to trap opposing models in order to maximize your damage output. To that end, you want local superiority to overwhelm an opponent. Also remember to use those blowpipes at every opportunity. The entire force is range capable and have poisoned ammunition.

Dueling Calculator: Average Expected Wounds

Good morning gamers,

A while back we did two posts on how to build a spreadsheet that calculated your probability of winning fights. Both posts focused solely on the dueling roll and how to compute your likelihood of winning a duel based on the number of dice being rolled, the Fight Values of each side, and common modifiers (dueling penalties, use of Might to boost your highest roll, etc.).

For the most part, that tool works well - if only one model is participating on each side of the fight. Once you get more than one friendly model in the fight, you get some really complicated interactions - here are a few of them:

• What happens if some models are using two-handed weapons (-1 to their dueling rolls) and some are using one-handed weapons (no penalty to their dueling roll)?
• What happens if some models have Might that they can use to boost their roll and others don't have Might?
• What about models (like Balin, Lord of Moria) who might be able to reroll both of their dice (but not other dice)?

None of these critiques are in any way saying that the calculator that we built is bad - it's actually quite good (and I think quite elegant for what it was trying to do - but I'm biased). But the calculator isn't robust enough to handle complicated actions - and ALL wounding roll calculations are complicated. So, before we can think about handling the wounding problem, we need to make a few changes to the dueling calculator - changes that will help us answer questions about wounding more easily. We're still going to keep our calculator limited to one model on each side - we'll tackle multiple friendly models some other time.

Wounding Rolls: What Question Are We Trying To Answer?

When it comes to determining who wins a fight, the only question we're really trying to answer is this:

How likely am I to win the roll?

There may be knobs that need to be turned and tweaked (Is Feinting a good idea? Is Striking a good idea? Should I shield? Should I two-hand?) but by an large, these are all pursuing the same question - what am I gaining or giving up in order to win the dueling roll (and do the penalties I'm suffering or the advantages I'm gaining really matter).

When it comes to wounding, there are actually two questions we might be trying to answer:

How many wounds should I reasonably expect to get?

How likely am I to deal X wounds?

These are, in fact, two VERY different questions and which one you're trying to answer determines what we need to compute. The first question is much simpler, so we're going to answer that one today.

The Bare Necessities, Part XLIV: The Trolls

Good morning gamers,

I have fought the Three Trolls a LOT over the past few years. If you've never faced two or three of them, you will not understand at all. Sure, maybe you've faced a lot of monsters in the past, but these guys are different. VERY different. While you might be able to call a Heroic Defense against most monsters to keep their high-Strength benefits from coming into play, these guys have tricks up their sleeves that will leave your best heroes crying. Today, we're looking at how to use these amazing and iconic heroes in evil armies - let's dig in!

The Trolls: Who Needs Some Muscle?

I've written about the Three Trolls before and I've talked about them in the Monster podcast we did a long time ago. I happen to think that Bill the Troll and Tom the Troll are some of the best monsters in the game and they are incredibly dangerous to forces that need to rely on big heroes smashing things (instead of shooting or magic). Tom has a great mix of options for dealing with warrior spams (with his Stomp 'Em Into Jelly Brutal Power Attack) and heroes (with his Lingering Cold ability and the rest of his hero arsenal) - and if a spell-caster happens to show up to the fight, he can forego turns of using his Lingering Cold rule in order to resist magic (3 Will for the win). Tom is pretty great.

Bill is a REALLY good hero when it comes to dealing with big heroes, as he can Strike from F7 and can use his Mince 'Em Fine Brutal Power Attack to deal wounds (not hits - WOUNDS) to his opponent based on the Strength of the target (Bill's S7 + D6 vs. the target's Strength + a D6 from them). Most of the time, you'll be up by 3 Strength (S7 vs. S4), which means if you can just match the enemy D6 roll, you can outright kill most heroes in the game (and woe betides bigger heroes if they get a bad D6 roll). Bill is pretty great.

Bert is the "other one" - slightly more expensive than Tom and gifted with a highly situational Brutal Power Attack (Roast 'Em Slowly - sets someone ablaze if you can chuck them into a fire nearby). With the profile of a Mordor Troll and 2M/1W/1F and access to Heroic Defense, Bert has less tactical options but has a solid profile and is very difficult to take down. While his Brutal Power Attack options aren't as neat as his comrades, all three have access to the Save 'Em For Later Brutal Power Attack, which allows you to Paralyze one model you're fighting - great for dealing with that pesky hero who called Heroic Defense and is going to be hard to clear (though not as good as Mince 'Em Fine, which is probably the best Heroic Defense bypass in the game). In his own way, Bert is pretty good too.

All three Trolls come in at 400 points (plus 15 points for the Campfire if you don't run a pure Trolls list) - which is a lot to spend on three models that can't lead troops, but is on-par with what other factions pay for 3 monsters (and most of those factions are buying warrior monsters who don't have Might/Will/Fate). If you pair these guys with some moderately-costed heroes (50-75pts - though one will have to be a Hero of Valor), you can get 2-3 heroes and a slew of warriors to join them in most games that are 600+ points. Not bad, really. Some armies can do this easily, but we'll be looking at a list that is inspired by something Rythbyrt ran against Centaur recently (not that he needs any more ideas).

Quest of the Ringbearer: Model Collection Update, Part II

Good morning gamers,

We're back with another update on my collection of models for the Quest of the Ringbearer missions. Last time we focused on Part I (up to Rivendell) and today we're revisiting Part I and covering Part II (through Moria).

Part I: The Shire to Rivendell

Since the last update, I got the last of the required figures for Part I, so here they are! First up, we have a model I've been dying to find for ages - Gildor Inglorion! He gets a bad wrap from most of the community, but is pretty good with Tom Bombadil (he's the kind of model who wants more than 1 Might point and can use the Will/Fate/Wound boost too) and gets you access to cheap, fast skirmishers.

8" move with 2-4 Immobilizes a game . . . Pretty good deal.

Next we have two more Barrow-Wights (four total), but I decided that I needed to be able to tell the wights apart better, so I painted the new guys in a similar style to my old ones and then decided to play around with object source lighting with glowing blades:

The red guy turned out really well . . .

Next up, we have three characters from Bree - Barliman Butterbur, Harry Goatleaf, and Bill the Pony (who is used in Part II). Barliman was another experiment in wet blending to get some wear and texture to his hair and clothing (especially his apron). I love the details on this model and want to try him out sometime:

I think I can empathize with Butterbur more than any other character in the story . . .

The Bare Necessities, Part XLIII: Radagast's Alliance

Good morning gamers,

We recently looked at both the Misty Mountains and Fangorn factions and today we wrap up the last of the Good all-monster armies (and the last of the participants in the Battle of Five Armies): Radagast's Alliance. Shockingly, this army isn't historical allies with the forces that were at the Battle of Five Armies - maybe because allying in Gwaihir historically into these armies would be broken, maybe because they didn't "officially" work with Erebor, Dale, or the Halls of Thranduil but arrived as an "enemy of my enemy." If you thought, though, that this army would just be a repeat of the discussion on the Misty Mountains, think again (well, sort of).

Photo Credit: Pinterest

Radagast's Alliance: More Than Just Eagles

The Misty Mountains faction is historical allies with a few factions (the Fellowship, Thorin's Company, and Radagast's Alliance) and convenient allies with everyone else in the game. This makes dropping a model like Gwaihir easy for virtually every army in the game (armies like the Fiefdoms or the Rangers probably want to keep their army bonuses, which is the only reason you'd want to forego allying in a F8/S6, nigh-unkillable-without-a-lot-of-effort monster into your force).

Radagast's Alliance may have the same lineup of models (and adds two more), but it doesn't have the same alliance structure. Instead, it can only ally with the Misty Mountains historically and can conveniently ally with the Elven factions (Rivendell, Lothlorien, and the Halls of Thranduil), a few all-hero/monster factions (Thorin's Company, Fangorn, the Wanderers in the Wild, the White Council, and the Rangers oddly enough), the men from the Armies of the Hobbit (the Army of Lake-town, the Survivors of Lake-town, and also oddly the Garrison of Dale), and some of the Dwarves from the Battle of Five Armies (the Iron Hills and Erebor Reclaimed). So basically . . . you gotta be from the Armies of the Hobbit (or Fangorn or the Rangers - who, as I've already said, probably don't want your help).

That's really limited as a set - and when looking for a balanced list to feature these guys, you have very few options that have a) actual banners (Elves, Dwarves, and Dale), b) fast troops besides Radagast's Alliance itself (Elves and Dwarves), and 30+ models (not the all-hero/monster lists). That made picking our list for today incredibly difficult.

And yet, the biggest question about this list is this: what kind of big hero (or maybe two) do you want to add to another faction to deepen its bench? Some of the factions listed above have a good selection of beater heroes (most notably Rivendell and Erebor Reclaimed, arguable case for Thorin's Company, the Iron Hills, and the Halls of Thranduil), but wouldn't mind having a F8 monster hero (or F7 monster warrior) to back up a hero or two of their own if they have the points for it.

When it comes down to it, this faction becomes more than just "another army of Eagles" - it gives you options. Not only do you have the ability to "just get Gwaihir," but you can also add in heroes like Beorn (who might be the most dangerous model against a single hero in the game) and Radagast (who has several tricks for shutting down heroes brought by your opponent - and can be dangerous in combat if he's equipped properly). While I could have talked about a faction that ran a handful of monster models, I felt like the list below showcases something this faction does well: gives you a better killing hero than what you have in your own list. To see how this works, let's look at today's list:

Dwarf Formations: The Tiberius King's Champion Specials

Good morning gamers,

I recently played with my "beared fellows" (Khazad-Dum Dwarves) at a 550-point tournament, and at it, I got to run one of my favorite formations: the "King's Champion Special." Or at least, I used a variant of one of my "KC-Special" formations. I've been running Khazad-Dum Dwarves since I got started in the game back in 2010 and I've been running the King's Champion for most of that time. While I am a huge fan of the core troops available to Khazad-Dum (Dwarf Warriors and Dwarf Rangers - the units you can get en masse in plastic), the three formations we're going to look at today are formations you can run that lean more heavily into the elite troops that Khazad-Dum has to offer. Why? Because there are few force multipliers that compare to the King's Champion. Let's see why that is.

Understanding the King's Champion "Model"

The King's Champion is a 140-point trio of models, containing the King's Champion himself and two "Heralds." Heralds are basically Dwarf Warriors with shields and banners (F4, D7, 1A, 1H, C4, with axe/shield/banner/Dwarf armor) and get +1 Strength (S4), +1 Will, +2 Fate, and special rules that boost their Defense when in base contact with each other or the King's Champion (up to Defense 9) and the ability for the King's Champion to use the Fate points of a Herald that is in base contact with him. Since a Dwarf Warrior costs 34 points with a banner and shield, it would be generous to say that they are valued at 35 points each (though the Will/Fate should make this closer to 50 points each).

IF you consider these guys to be 35-points in value, the King's Champion costs "only" 70 points (40 points if you bump up the cost of the Heralds to 50 points each) and has a stellar profile. With F6, S5, D7 (which can be up to D9 if in base contact with both Heralds), 3A, 2H, C5, 2M/1W/1F and Heroic Strike/Strength, he's basically a cheaper Dwarf King with better Strength and Attacks, potentially better Defense, and lower Courage and Will (and a different set of heroic actions - both sets are quite useful). With at least one banner at his back, the King's Champion will be rolling an absurd number of dice to win the fight (as will friendly models around him).

The King's Champion set of models is one of the best values for points in the game and the low Will and low movement (no mount) are really the only things detracting from the profile (3 Might would be welcome too, but I can't think of any generic, non-monster heroes that have 3 Might). As far as generic heroes go, this is about the best you can get and for Khazad-Dum, he's commonly viewed as a staple before the likes of Durin or Balin. Paired with a hero who can March him around (Dwarf Kings, Dwarf Captains, or Balin), he's a force to be reckoned with. But with 10 warrior slots in this Hero of Fortitude's warband (since the Heralds take up two of the twelve slots), what do you bring alongside this guy to get the most out of him? Well, let's take a look at a few of them, shall we?

The Bare Necessities, Part XLII: The Survivors of Lake-town

Good morning gamers,

Today we're viewing the last of the Battle of Five Armies forces: we've already looked at the Halls of Thranduil, Erebor Reclaimed, and more recently the Iron Hills. Today we'll be looking at the "angry fishermen" in the alliance: the Survivors of Lake-town.

Photo Credit: Pinterest

The Survivors of Lake-town: Getting the Most out of Bard

A few weeks ago, we talked about the Army of Lake-town and in it we focused on how you could get a large body of troops for a relatively small number of points. In it, you could get two pretty mediocre heroes if you view their stat lines (the Master and Alfrid) and Braga (who is okay) and field a FLOOD of troops that, when augmented by these three heroes, are quite challenging to deal with (max of 39 warriors for 42 models total, coming in at ~350pts if you do 50% spears and 33% bows).

Well, as soon as Smaug burns their town, the refugees of Lake-town are . . . well, not the same kind of army. :-) Instead, your army bonus (and selection of units) makes Bard an auto-include if run pure/historically-allied (as he counts as a 12" banner and gives +1 Fight Value to most of the Lake-town models in this list WITHOUT having to spend Might like the Master of Lake-town does). For "only" 155 points when fully kitted out and a boost to a Hero of Legend, this seems like a cheaper and better version of Imrahil.

BUT when you factor in the ACTUAL cost of Bard, he's closer to 200 points, because he's probably joined by three Independent heroes: his daughters, Sigrid and Tilda, allow him to be F6 instead of F5 if one of them is within 6" of him and call free Heroic Combats so long as both of them are near him. Free Heroic Combats on a horse with F6? Sign me up! Alfrid the Councilor, demoted to an Independent Hero in this list, can still give Bard extra Might points (or give Might to Sigrid and Tilda if you don't want to risk losing Might by rolling the 1 for Dubious Counsel), which can turn him into a pseudo-Boromir hero (except with a larger radius for his banner/FV boost, free Heroic Combats, and lower Defense).

But once you've sunk nearly 200 points into Bard and his three attachés, the question is what ELSE do you put in a list to augment him? Naturally Bard is going to draw a LOT of attention and with only D5 and 3 Wounds/3 Fate (which is admittedly as good as a man-sized model can expect to be sans the Defense rating), so what else would keep him alive? Here are some ideas:

• Gandalf the Grey is a Hero of Valor in this list - one of only two lists where Gandalf can lead troops. While his casting array is meh, he provides resilience to archery with Blinding Light, which is not only good for Bard himself, but is also good for Bard's horse, his daughters, Alfrid, Gandalf's horse (if he has one), and your Lake-town Militia (particularly those without shields).
• Lake-town Militia Captains don't look like much, but within 12" of Bard, they're very cheap F4/S4 models with spears (which means they can support through a cheap grunt if they want to) and Heroic March (good for getting your infantry horde where it needs to be). They're not very expensive, so you might be able to get two or three of these guys into your army if you want to get somewhere fast for an extended period of time.
  
• Bilbo Baggins, Master Burglar is kind of expensive, but as a Hero of Fortitude he can also lead troops and can make Bard not need to call Heroic Strikes if they're in the same fight and Bilbo has the Ring on (and Bard is near the girls). This could make calling Heroic Combats easier, since you'll have the FV advantage, knock-down who you're fighting, and then get extra movement out of your horse.
• Historical Alliances with Erebor Reclaimed, The Iron Hills, and the Halls of Thranduil  provide some nice boosts for your Lake-town troops. Lake-town can get you a high body count for these elite forces, but the allies grant you stronger stat lines (that your Orc-like Lake-town guys can support). Excellent augments include Legolas (for his archery damage more than anything else), Mirkwood Cavalry or Iron Hills Goat Riders (for actual fast troops), Dain Ironfoot (and many of the things he can bring from the Iron Hills), Thorin (a second hero with free Heroic Combats) and any number of the Champions of Erebor (most notably Dwalin, Gloin, Dori, Nori, Kili, Fili, or Bifur).
  

It's important to note that one of the biggest advantages that comes from a historical alliance is that you get a second killing hero. The biggest challenge with Lake-town is that they have exactly one beater hero - Bard. Sure, you can make Captains do damage (and Percy can do some damage with archery), but for the most part, you've got Bard. And that's it. Allying with any one of Lake-town's Historical Allies gives you additional threats without weakening Bard's auric benefits to his team. And if you want, Bard doesn't have to be your leader, depending on who you choose. 

All that said, one of the Top 5 Ardacon lists relied on only Bard as its killer her and another used Lake-town Captains to support Legolas, so whether you need Bard in the list is also up to debate. Regardless of how you roll, you can't get everything we described above (not at any serious points level, that is), so here's a list that shows off some of the synergies you can get (we'll delve into others at the end of the post).

TMAT Talks - Episode 16: Previewing The Hunter's Red October 2021

 

Fall breezes be breezin', which can only mean one thing: it's time for another Hunter's Red October!

Join Tiberius, Centaur, Rythbryt, and a whole lot of guests (yes--GUESTS!!!) as we discuss the scenarios and (20!) lists in this 550 point Good vs. Evil tournament.

(Spoiler alert: the evil armies are loaded).

Now streaming on Spotify, Google Play, Apple Podcasts, and (probably) wherever you get your audio content! Plus, you can head on over to the TMAT blog for more details about the tournament (and eventually full published lists), or to read Tiberius's thoughts on his Moria armies (and the armies he left behind).

tellmeatalegreatorsmall.blogspot.com
Music: Happy Haunts by Aaron Kenny

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Show Notes:

0:00 - Sauron, Wraiths, Bombs, and a Balrog (with Red Jacket and The Black Prince)

41:00 - Azog, Treebeard, Gil-Galad, and a(nother!) Balrog (with Dronak, Ikaika, and Gorgoroth)

1:01:00 - Avengers, Saruman, Theoden, and a (third!?!?) Balrog

1:46:00 - Centaur's vaunted predictions (and some parting thoughts)