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Thursday, December 3, 2020

Overly Pedantic Stats: Improving Minas Tirith

 Hey Reader!

Welcome back to the blog! I spent some time tracking the performance of Minas Tirith armies at our tournaments over the years, and it didn't surprise me to find that pure Minas Tirith armies (and even allied Minas Tirith + Fiefdoms armies) didn't perform well in our meta. So I got to thinking, "Why is that? Gondor is such a strong faction with so many options and lots of heroes to round them out, so why don't they win more often?" I can't chalk it up to lack of skill because the players who have used them performed well in other tournaments, so I my puzzlement grew.

And that's when I cracked out the overly pedantic stats spreadsheet, because that's what nerds do.

And would you believe it - I found some answers that might help. The purpose of this post is to help you think through how you can improve your Minas Tirith game purely based off of stats: strategy will matter as will objectives, but since those are intangible variables we won't be factoring those into the stats. Instead we will be looking at small changes you can make to increase the overall effectiveness of the profiles in your army to set you up for success.

And with that, join me in my descent into overly analyzed math.

I.  The Best Statistical Heroes for Minas Tirith

Some of this is not going to come as a surprise, while others might shock you. We will start with your hero choices (both named and unnamed), and then move into the warrior choices that will add extra power to your list.

So for starters, it will not surprise anyone that the two highest ranked heroes for Minas Tirith are Elessar (3.4) and Gandalf the White (4). It will also not surprise anyone that Boromir is also in the top four (3.2). What I didn't realize, though, is how high Faramir places (3.4), suffering in Defense and Utility compared to Elessar, but making up for this in lower cost. And as I looked at the armies that people ran, they would often take 1-2 of the Big Three and leave Faramir at home, or they would take one of the Big Three and ally in Imrahil.

So let me lead off this post by saying that Faramir is dope, and you should consider using him. The stats say that he's a great hero for the cost, and if he's not in your army you might improve your game by adding him. I personally like him in his ranger version with heavy armor for survivability, but you can run him mounted with a lance as well. It is also worth noting that his score drops to 3.2 (same as Boromir) if you don't take the horse, so keep that in mind when you kit him out. This is also why I think he comes in behind Elessar even though their overall score is the same, as the overall for Faramir assumes a horse, heavy armor, lance, and shield, and he is often run with a bow (for good reason), which will either cause his Defense or Mobility score to suffer based on whether you then take him with or without a shield or horse.

Second, Gondor has three really good mid-range heroes: the Knight of the White Tower (2.2, only because of his lack of a mount and low Defense), Hurin (3), and the Captain of Gondor (2.8, if you get him the horse and the lance with the shield for added defense). A lot of people run Captains of Gondor as "bunker captains," and for good reason: they'll hold the line and defend you pretty well against enemy troops for a good long while (not to mention the foot version comes in the command blister, so if you have the model why not use it). 

The issue is that you sacrifice killing power when you do this, so I recommend mounting your captains if at all possible, or taking a Knight of the White Tower or Hurin for some added punch and killing power, as they are around the same cost. There are other really good captain-style models (Ingold is at a 2.6 and Madril is at a 2.8), so if you don't own the previously mentioned heroes you can always try these guys out to see if they meet your needs, as you'll save a few points by running them.

Third, for low-cost heroes you have some really good choices. Beregond is a really good deal for what you pay for (2.6), and while Damrod is not as good (2.4), he is still very good for what you get (a budget Dunedain, basically). So if you have 100pts to spare and you need to add another warband, these guys will get you there with room to customize and upgrade troops in your army.

With the heroes considered, let's look at warrior selections next.

II.  The Best Statistical Warriors for Minas Tirith

As we look at warrior choices, this was perhaps the most eye-opening thing for me. The best two performing troops were the Knight of Minas Tirth (no surprise, as for the points you get a very lethal model) and the Citadel Guard, which you don't tend to see used that often. When armed with a longbow, you get to do your S3 (that you do in melee) at 24" away, which dramatically increases the killing effectiveness of the model over, say, a Fountain Court Guard (who is also F4 S3 with 1 Attack, so the same effectiveness in melee, but lacks a ranged attack). If you take a horse for the Citadel Guard, the killing power goes up even more, both by adding attacks and wounding dice in melee, but also in giving you an effective 29" threat range with your longbow (albeit at a 5+ Shoot if you move).

And would you know it, you almost never see Gondor armies with a good contingent of Citadel Guard. So guess what I'll be working on converting next. 

So the big takeaway for army composition: take more Citadel Guard over Fountain Court Guard. You'll even save yourself some points, assuming you don't mount them all.

There are other good warrior selections, and people tend to take these models. Warriors of Minas Tirith (2.6) do perform better on the stats than an Osgiliath Veteran (2.4) by a shy bit, so you should probably take your standard warriors with their Shieldwall over a troop of Os Vets. But what did surprise me was how poorly the Ranger of Gondor performed (2.2). This means, and the more I think about it the better I feel about this, if you have 8-9pts lying around, you might want to purchase an Os Vet with a bow over a Ranger with a bow, as your chance of hitting isn't that different, your chance of wounding is exactly the same, but your survivability goes up a bit, keeping them alive longer. That's something I hadn't expected, and maybe that will help improve your game.

Naturally siege equipment is powerful, and you get access to two really good ones in the Minas Tirith list. Either will round out your army very well, so tinker with adding 1-2 Avenger Bolt Throwers or 1-2 Battlecry Trebuchets.

III.  Sample Army Lists

So looking at lists that would use these characters, we know we want one of the big guys to handle your heavy-hitting enemy heroes. We also know that we'll want good supporting heroes to hold the line and contribute to the damage total while the heavy hitters are doing their work. And then we'll want to center our corps of our army around our three strong units: the Warrior of Minas Tirith as our "anvil," the Knight of Minas Tirith as our "hammer," and the Citadel Guard as our "ranged threat/flex attacker."

So for the first list we are going to thematically build it around the early days of the siege of Minas Tirith, fleshing out a 500-pt list that sports Faramir leading the men of Gondor to victory, while our 700-pt list will sport King Elessar with a good corps of heavy-hitting lesser heroes to topple the foe.

The Garrison of the Ecthelion (Minas Tirith, 500pts)

Warband 1

Faramir, Captain of Gondor with Bow and Heavy Armor (Army Leader)

4 Warriors of Minas Tirith with Shields

5 Warriors of Minas Tirith with Shields and Spears

4 Knights of Minas Tirith


Warband 2

Ingold

5 Warriors of Minas Tirith with Shields

3 Warriors of Minas Tirith with Shields and Spears

2 Guard of the Fountain Court

1 Warrior of Minas Tirith with Shield and Banner


Warband 3

Beregond

6 Citadel Guard with Longbows

TOTAL: 500pts, 33 models (Break after 17 casualties, Quartered after 25 casualties), 7 Might


Now it's worth noting about this list that had we gone with Boromir instead of Faramir we would have spent about 100 extra points (125 if we fully decked out Boromir), but offensively we actually haven't changed much - we lose 3 Might and an Attack, but we gain a ranged attack and a lot more men. So there's a tradeoff to be sure, but I think this list is stronger and would perform better in combat than if Boromir was leading it. We have a corps of 7 longbows plus Faramir for shooting (which is good at 500pts, as we should reliably be able to do 1-2 wounds each round), 4 horsemen for mobility to reach objectives and run people down, and a solid "anvil" with Ingold and his shieldwall. And with a few Guards of the Fountain Court alongside Beregond and the Citadel Guard providing the Bodyguard rule, even Terror isn't an issue for this force.

So even though we only have 500 pts for this army, I actually feel pretty good about it - it would hold its own and has a lot of ways to cover its bases.

As we look at a 700pt list, we keep in mind the units we need to lend strength to our lines: those budget, high-damage heroes that Minas Tirith has in large quantities.

The Might of Man (Minas Tirith, 700pts)

Warband 1

Aragorn, King Elessar (Army Leader)

3 Warriors of Minas Tirith with Shields

2 Warriors of Minas Tirith with Shields and Spears

4 Knights of Minas Tirith

4 Guard of the Fountain Court


Warband 2

Hurin on Horse

4 Warriors of Minas Tirith with Shields

4 Warriors of Minas Tirith with Shields and Spears


Warband 3

Knight of the White Tower

10 Citadel Guard with Longbows

TOTAL: 700pts, 34 models (Break after 17 casualties, Quartered after 25 casualties), 8 Might*

Now we're cooking with grease: only one more model, but we've upped the killing power of our heroes by several notches. Faramir has been replaced by Hurin, and then we've added Elessar on top of that to double down on heavy-hitting heroes. We've replaced Ingold with a Knight of the White Tower for slightly less staying power but greater damage, and with Elessar's banner bubble he should be able to hold the line for us. Since Elessar is bringing a banner rule we didn't take a banner (the one regret I have), but that freed up the points for us to have a contingent of 10 Citadel Guard with longbows, giving us not only powerful ranged capabilities to support our cavalry (which we still have added to with mounted heroes), but also doing so while maintaining our Gondorian heavy armor, which should keep us safe from return fire. And with a slightly larger contingent of Guard of the Fountain Court to augment the Bodyguard on our now 10 Citadel Guard, we should be in great shape (over a dozen auto-passes while Elessar is alive) in case of Terror checks.

Conclusion

Minas Tirith has some great units, but whether because of model availability or people just thinking that other models look cooler, some of their best choices don't get taken. So if you play Minas Tirith and you are struggling to win, consider making a few swaps to boost your effectiveness. It might increase your love for the faction.

Watching the stars,

Centaur

"Centaurs are not the servants or playthings of humans." ~ Firenze, Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix

22 comments:

  1. Wow - I really liked this post! I am curious about the scale used for cost for the Warriors (Citadel Guard got a 4, but cost 9-10 pts/model). I get that you have to cover a big range of points (Cave Trolls cost 75-85 pts after all), and I know it would only drop slightly, but it seems to me that they might be better classified as a 3 (more expensive than some Warriors, less expensive than others).

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    1. Ah - the warrior choices are done on a 5-pt scale, so a model that costs 1-5pts gets a score of 5, 6-10 get a score of 4, 11-15 gets a 3, 16-20 gets a 2, and 21+ gets a 1 (mostly heavy cav, monsters, and siege weapons).

      Heroes are done on a 50-pt scale, so 1-50 is a 5, 51-100 is a 4, etc. This means that guys like Theodred tend to do really well on the Cost side of things, as they are right at the top of the bracket (whereas Eomer, for example, bleeds over to the next bracket), but still get the killing power of a person that is in the 60-70pts range.

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    2. Does the mobility score for the Citadel Guard reflect having a horse? If so, that brings them up to 15 points, no?

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  2. Very interesting post. As a nerd myself I would gladly take a look at the numbers.
    Anyway, we see the limits of numbers as the Knight otWT get a bad grade, although he is the only under-100-points-killy option, even without the charge.
    May I ask how you kitted Boromir ? Did you factored how many warriors a hero can bring into utility ?

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    1. Yeah - it's pretty much just Knight of the White Tower and Hurin (because he also has the high chance to wound, access to Strike, and has a horse which helps immensely in making those wound rolls work), though Gondor also gets access to horses and lances on their captains, so a Gondorian Captain is actually not bad at killing troops either (heroes are another story), as you have the S4 with +1 to wound on the charge, 3 attacks on the charge, and F5 if you are near Boromir.

      The only reason the Knight of the White Tower gets a bad grade is mobility: he's only 6" move as he doesn't get a horse, so he's getting 1) a lower Mobility score and 2) a slightly lower Offensive score as he only gets 2 dice to wound. Faramir on a horse is rolling more attacks and double the wounding dice, as one example of a similarly costed hero that has a higher Offense score.

      For Boromir I assumed Horse + Banner + Shield (so basically the full kit); his Utility score is higher than most Gondor heroes because he gets access to lots of troops, gives a banner radius, and also gives a Fight Value radius. His weakness is the same as Elessar and Gandalf the White: cost.

      Which, to be fair, the rankings also assume that all categories are created equal - for some players points may not be that big of a drawback, in which case Boromir will rank a good bit higher (as will most Gondor heroes, actually).

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    2. Gandalf the White also runs well with Boromir, Captain of the White Tower (though the pair is really expensive). Both being Heroes of Valor allow you to field a TON of guys and it's a pretty good list if you're at/above 700 points:

      Gandalf the White on Shadowfax
      1 Knight of Minas Tirith with shield
      1 Ranger of Gondor
      4 Rangers of Gondor with spears
      8 Warriors of Minas Tirith with shields

      Boromir, Captain of the White Tower on horse with Banner of Minas Tirith and shield
      1 Knight of Minas Tirith with shield
      8 Warriors of Minas Tirith with shield
      5 Rangers of Gondor with spears

      700 points, 30 models, 4 fast models, 10 bows + 1 Sorcerous Blast, 9 Might

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  3. Hey, thanks a lot for all of your stuff, very entertaining !
    I have two questions :
    - why not include gondor rangers wich Can Hove their fight value with spears and have a better shooting than citadel huards ?
    - Would you include Gandalf the White in a competitive list ? If yes, do you have an example in stock ?
    Thanks a lot !

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    1. Hey man! Thanks for reaching out - two quick replies:

      1) So, first off, you're right: rangers spear supporting is fantastic, and it gives them a decent Offense score (same as the Citadel Guard). The better shooting for the rangers is pretty much cancelled out in the math, though, by the fact that they have a S2 shot instead of a S3 shot, and since most models in the game are D5-D7 (warriors and heroes alike), the S2 bow is just not performing as well on wounding as the S3 bow. So I basically called it a wash. The big difference then is that Citadel Guard are more resilient and can be mounted, giving them greater mobility, potentially twice as many dice to win the fight (with the same Fight Value) if they charge, and four times as many dice to wound if they win the fight (as the target is knocked to the ground). That's the thing that made the difference.

      2) Oh, Gandalf the White is basically an auto-include for me for Minas Tirith. He's really good for countering enemy magic users, has 3 Attacks on the charge with F5 S5 (due to Glamdring) with access to Heroic Strike, and he's got a great spell suite for neutralizing would-be threats (whether melee attackers, monsters, archery - you name it). He's expensive, but he's very good.

      I believe we have a few lists on this blog that involve Gandalf the White in Gondor; you can find one of them here: https://tellmeatalegreatorsmall.blogspot.com/2020/02/the-bare-necessities-part-vi-minas.html

      The basics of a Gandalf line are pretty simple: Gandalf + 1 Killing Hero (probably Faramir, Hurin, or Knight of the White Tower as they all have access to Heroic Strike) + enough soldiers to hold down the enemy. I recommend a contingent of Warriors of Minas Tirith, Gondorian Knights, and a mix of Citadel Guard and Fountain Court Guard. If you really want to spice things up, throw a siege weapon or two to make your enemy come to you, :)

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  4. Great article!

    I used to run Citadel Guard Longbowmen back in the day, but Rangers always appealed more thematically. You've made me reconsider my expansion options!

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    1. I literally just started painting mine this past weekend; now I just need to get a box of Gondorian Knights to convert into Citadel Guard and I'll be set to run some Gondor, :)

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  5. Really great idea with the statistics of each model and as always great article.
    If you do not mind sharing, wow did you convert the statistics to 1-5 scale?

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    1. I don't mind at all! At some point I'll share the system, but each category is ranked differently as some stats included more things than others, so it made sense to set the thresholds higher for some categories.

      The easiest by far was the Mobility category: anything less than 6" was a 1, 6" was a 2, 8" was a 3, 10" was a 4, and 12" was a 5. In the scenario that a character could be mounted we assumed that they were mounted, and that is then reflected in the Cost category.

      Similarly Cost was pretty straightforward: 5pt increments for warriors, 50pt increments for heroes, but working backwards, so a hero that costs 50pts or less is a 5 rather than a 1. This means that a hero that costs 201pts and a hero that costs 700pts both get a 1, but honestly, at a point, both are heavy investments for the army, and the "1" is merely supposed to represent the fact that they are expensive. So it works.

      Offense, Defense, and Utility were the hard ones to find a balance; Offense looked at F/S Values, Strength (including Strength of the ranged weapon in the case of ranged weapons), Attacks, and Might. Defense looked at Defense, Wounds, and Fate, and then Utility looked at Courage and Will.

      Special rules and magic spells were applied to the category they were tied to, so that also moved the numbers around (which is why infantry elves who only move 6" don't have a 2 for Mobility, for example). So all around, a very large project that required some finetuning as we went along, but a very enlightening process, :)

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  6. Wow. I'm a huge fan of faramir, and recently gave him a brill writeup for my local gaming group newsletter. I've always felt knights of minas Tirith to be one of the best budget cavalry units even without Boromir.

    I'm currently sat painting the new ranger heros thinking how to balance a ithilien legendary legion at higher points. Previously I've mounted faz and a captain with a squad of komt, and they are a powerful team at lower points values.

    I've always felt the weakness of faz has more to do with how you value his utility Vs how much "work" he gets done.

    As always with gondorians, it's the huge choice which is a weakness, so for me it's pure defense plus war machines and big hero's, or pure attack.

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    1. Dude same - I've really come around on Faramir, and loving the new updated Ithilien legion. Really loving the options it gives, and I think Mablung in particular is going to be one of those unsung heroes going into the new tournament scene. Narzug has been my boy for a while now, and I'm excited that Minas Tirith is getting access to that same special rule now (albeit with no Morgul Arrows, but that's fine).

      And yeah - I tend to lean the same way, going for heavy armor backed by siege weapons, so I tend to rely on Ingold and other defensive guys to hold the line while the siege engines do the real work, :P

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    2. Mablung will be epic on boards that have lots of terrain (he's the one that grants Stalk Unseen). Anborn is your guy - and he will also be loved everywhere. :)

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  7. can you take longbpws with the citadel guards when they are on horseback also KHANDISH GONDORIANS

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    1. Yes you can - 15pts/model makes them slightly more expensive than Knights of Minas Tirith, so you can choose between F3/D6 with a lance and shieldwall or F4/D5 with a longbow and Bodyguard.

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    1. Good point - I didn't read the profile. Apparently, horses are more expensive for these guys than . . . every other warrior in the game.

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  9. Great article. Giving me a lot of food for thought as my finger hovers over the CHECKOUT button at GW LOL. I get the point fully about Citadel Guard with LB being able to reach out with their S3 attacks vs Fountain Court Guard (FCG) but while straight stats and math provide one method of assesseing units comparatively, it can't always be used in isolation. One of the biggest issues with those 24" S3 bows is the enemy playing ball and advancing in the open which I certainly wouldn't do (unless you REALLY can't avoid it) and then you will encounter ITW tests a which point, even with just one, one could argue that, point per point, their effectiveness plunges. Yes you can mount them to get around this but you will still only get a 5" move and shoot AND it will be at -1 AND they cost 17 points a pop (85 points for a unit of 5). Contrast that with FCG with shield at 11 points per model for D7 vs the D5 of of Citadel Guard. It will always be very situational but I just see the FCG being always usable whereas, in their best role, the Citadel Guard might not be and, if it comes to a fight, the FCG have a much greater chance of success.

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    1. Mind you, it would be expensive, but 6 FCG with shields for D7 supported by 6 CG with longbow could be pretty potent as a strike force, esp with the right hero, F4 but you'll struggle to get higher anywhere with warriors I think. My brain isn't agile enough with regard to MESBG at the moment so there's probably a far better or more cost effective way of doing this, even the standard 6 WomT at D6 with a shield supported by rangers with spear AND bow vs spear OR longbow might be better. I can't help thinking thought that 4+ S3 longbows have more killing potential than 3+ S2 bows.

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    2. One more thing I forgot. How would you set abou converting standard warriors to Citadel Guard (foor and mounted). Mounted guys would need cloaks and bows (if going the bow route) and the foot guys cloaks. Not sure my green stuff modelling skills are up to modelling cloaks :(

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